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redrobin

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SEPTEMBER 26, 2011

MARKET REPORT AND ANALYSIS



Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2010 and 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Number : Percent of
Item :---------------------------:
: 2010 : 2011 :previous year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- 1,000 head ---- percent
:
On feed August 1 ....................: 9,880 10,589 107
Placed on feed during August ........: 2,271 2,252 99
Fed cattle marketed during August ...: 1,923 2,048 107
Other disappearance during August ...: 47 72 153
On feed September 1 .................: 10,181 10,721 105



Friday's COF report was bullish and reflected much lower placements for August than most forecasters estimated. USDA estimates are worrisome and conflict with private sources that are tracking placements on a more accurate level.





The expectations for higher prices from last week will be carried forward to this week. A favorable cattle on feed report coupled with an crashed equity and commodity markets were showing signs early Monday of an attempt at a recovery. Beginning asking prices will be at $119.



Boxed prices were mixed to lower. Choice cuts held their own at $183 while select cuts were one lower at $169. The choice/select spread was the widest in many months at $14. Slaughter numbers are creeping higher. The mix also will be changing as fewer cows will be available requiring more fed cattle in the slaughter mix.



The fall run of feeder cattle in the southern plains is nearing completion almost 30-60 later than usual. The light weight replacements have been forced into feedyards but the marketings will be staggered next year. The questionable placement for August might be revised upward in the future by USDA. A 750# steer was selling for $133 in the southern plains.



Nominal rains across the southwest remind ranchers that one rain does not break a drought. The moisture profile for the soil is non existent and one rain begins the slow process of awakening the dormant grass plants but this does not constitute a recovery. For the plants to revive, it will require returns to more normalized rainfall at regular intervals.





Corn prices are creeping higher following last week rout. Signs are present in the political arena for various attacks on the current ethanol subsidies and mandates. It would not be a good time to own a ethanol plant. The basis in Guymon Oklahoma is moving lower to $.70 over December contract. Corn is now pricing into most rations at $13.00 cwt..





POLITICS



A recent reader sent in a comment regarding the weekly editorial. The reader suggested THE CATTLE REPORT limit its content to comments on the market and refrain from delving off into politics. We appreciate the comments we receive and not always do they agree with the opinions expressed on these pages. Dissent and criticism are good and we certainly have no patent on the correct way of thinking or the proper course of action.



Uncoupling market comments from politics isn't going to happen in this industry. Our business in intertwined with politics and governmental action. We depend on government to:



Survey the numbers of cattle. This task requires compiling the number of cattle in the national herd as well as placements into feedyards, marketings out of feedyards, and cattle on feed. We continue to question the reliability of the published numbers and the methodology to arrive at the information used in the reports. Placements this past month were much lower than those gathered by private sources.



Food safety and meat inspection. Government inspectors make important calls on beef such as quality grade and yield grade. They also regulate animal health issues like condemnation, antibiotic use, vaccinations and much more. USDA and FDA often compete and conflict over territorial issues.



Environmental regulation. The government has a role in regulating our soil, water, land use and air.



Markets. The government not only tells us what cattle prices are but how we can buy and sell cattle and who can buy and sell cattle. They regulate how payments for livestock are made and the priority of claims of money.



Trade policy. Beef processors sell beef abroad based on a framework provided or not provided by the government.



These are only a few of the major areas in which government interfaces with our business. The various governmental agencies involved with the industry do not operate in a vacuum. They take direction from the Executive Branch or the President. Anyone who is unable to tell a difference in governmental policies and regulatory interpretation of the beef industry under President Obama vs. President Bush is not playing with a full deck.



This editorial writer is willing to admit to a huge mistake in 2008. I voted for Obama. He seems bright, articulate, hopeful and it was time for a change. It has been a change but the change has been a disaster for American business. President Obama simply doesn't understand the nature of business or markets. Whether it is regulating dust or asking his bureaucrats to assure that all cattle owners are selling cattle at the same price, he gets it wrong when it comes to business.



His policies will assure no young people enter the beef industry. His boneheaded ethanol policy assures those that are already in the business, cannot profit. The next election will be critical for the beef industry and a change is in order.



Apologies to the writer of the comment asking us to refrain from political comment.
 

Soapweed

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redrobin said:
POLITICS



A recent reader sent in a comment regarding the weekly editorial. The reader suggested THE CATTLE REPORT limit its content to comments on the market and refrain from delving off into politics. We appreciate the comments we receive and not always do they agree with the opinions expressed on these pages. Dissent and criticism are good and we certainly have no patent on the correct way of thinking or the proper course of action.



Uncoupling market comments from politics isn't going to happen in this industry. Our business in intertwined with politics and governmental action. We depend on government to:



Survey the numbers of cattle. This task requires compiling the number of cattle in the national herd as well as placements into feedyards, marketings out of feedyards, and cattle on feed. We continue to question the reliability of the published numbers and the methodology to arrive at the information used in the reports. Placements this past month were much lower than those gathered by private sources.



Food safety and meat inspection. Government inspectors make important calls on beef such as quality grade and yield grade. They also regulate animal health issues like condemnation, antibiotic use, vaccinations and much more. USDA and FDA often compete and conflict over territorial issues.



Environmental regulation. The government has a role in regulating our soil, water, land use and air.



Markets. The government not only tells us what cattle prices are but how we can buy and sell cattle and who can buy and sell cattle. They regulate how payments for livestock are made and the priority of claims of money.



Trade policy. Beef processors sell beef abroad based on a framework provided or not provided by the government.



These are only a few of the major areas in which government interfaces with our business. The various governmental agencies involved with the industry do not operate in a vacuum. They take direction from the Executive Branch or the President. Anyone who is unable to tell a difference in governmental policies and regulatory interpretation of the beef industry under President Obama vs. President Bush is not playing with a full deck.



This editorial writer is willing to admit to a huge mistake in 2008. I voted for Obama. He seemed bright, articulate, hopeful and it was time for a change. It has been a change but the change has been a disaster for American business. President Obama simply doesn't understand the nature of business or markets. Whether it is regulating dust or asking his bureaucrats to assure that all cattle owners are selling cattle at the same price, he gets it wrong when it comes to business.

His policies will assure no young people enter the beef industry. His boneheaded ethanol policy assures those that are already in the business, cannot profit. The next election will be critical for the beef industry and a change is in order.

Apologies to the writer of the comment asking us to refrain from political comment.

Thanks for posting, Red Robin. At least the writer of this market report is smart enough to admit to a mistake, and wise enough to change the error of his ways in the next election.
 

burnt

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Probably the wrong place for the direction this discussion is taking but I can guarantee you that it matters not who is in power, the industry going to go the way it is regardless.

I hated the policies implemented by the Liberal governments of the past and hoped for change when Conservative governments came into power.

Guess what - there was/is no change, at least no positive change.

Because we get the government we deserve.
 
A

Anonymous

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These are only a few of the major areas in which government interfaces with our business. The various governmental agencies involved with the industry do not operate in a vacuum. They take direction from the Executive Branch or the President. Anyone who is unable to tell a difference in governmental policies and regulatory interpretation of the beef industry under President Obama vs. President Bush is not playing with a full deck.

So- to play Devils Advocate-- is this the reason we are seeing $2000 pairs, $900 calves, cull bulls that sold at $1 lb ($2000+) this summer and cull cows selling for record HIGH prices :???:
Record HIGH cattle prices we didn't even see with the border being closed....
Prices that most prognosticators are predicting will be even higher in 2012 and 2013....



This editorial writer is willing to admit to a huge mistake in 2008. I voted for Obama. He seems bright, articulate, hopeful and it was time for a change. It has been a change but the change has been a disaster for American business. President Obama simply doesn't understand the nature of business or markets. Whether it is regulating dust or asking his bureaucrats to assure that all cattle owners are selling cattle at the same price, he gets it wrong when it comes to business.

His policies will assure no young people enter the beef industry. His boneheaded ethanol policy assures those that are already in the business, cannot profit. The next election will be critical for the beef industry and a change is in order.

Sounds like another Packer Lackey- misrepresenting and trying to use scare tactics to keep people from supporting the USDA from enforcing the GIPSA rules (that Congress in the last Farm Bill told them to enforce) that keep these same Packers/multinational beef conglomerates from obtaining a monopoly over and control the entire cattle/beef chain- and using that control to manipulate prices and trying to further chickenize the beef industry...

I think the man forgot who instituted the "boneheaded ethanol policies" in the first place... And I sure haven't heard the folks on the grain/corn growing side complaining about the higher prices they have been getting......
 

redrobin

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Oldtimer said:
So- to play Devils Advocate-- is this the reason we are seeing $2000 pairs, $900 calves, cull bulls that sold at $1 lb ($2000+) this summer and cull cows selling for record HIGH prices :???:


.....
No.
 

Soapweed

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Oldtimer said:
So- to play Devils Advocate-- is this the reason we are seeing $2000 pairs, $900 calves, cull bulls that sold at $1 lb ($2000+) this summer and cull cows selling for record HIGH prices :???:


.....


Oldtimer, just because you have the added benefit of an oil boom going on in your immediate area does not mean that the rest of the country is so fortunate. Yes, it looks like calves might be about 20% higher this fall than a year ago. On the other hand, have you checked out the price of cake for this year? It is up a whopping 50% from a year ago. Other costs of production, including fuel and taxes of all kinds, are also significantly higher. All of a sudden the extra "income" from calf sales doesn't seem as "great." Another hidden boondoggle from the outward "appearance" of higher prices received is that it throws operations into higher tax brackets, even though the spending power of the "additional revenue" is, if anything, less. Oldtimer, you and I are blessed just to be employed. Many folks are not nearly as lucky. Your dear President and Liberal-caused agendas, restrictions, and powerful unions are much of the reason the economy is in the dumps.
 

hillsdown

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Soapweed said:
Oldtimer said:
So- to play Devils Advocate-- is this the reason we are seeing $2000 pairs, $900 calves, cull bulls that sold at $1 lb ($2000+) this summer and cull cows selling for record HIGH prices :???:


.....


Oldtimer, just because you have the added benefit of an oil boom going on in your immediate area does not mean that the rest of the country is so fortunate. Yes, it looks like calves might be about 20% higher this fall than a year ago. On the other hand, have you checked out the price of cake for this year? It is up a whopping 50% from a year ago. Other costs of production, including fuel and taxes of all kinds, are also significantly higher. All of a sudden the extra "income" from calf sales doesn't seem as "great." Another hidden boondoggle from the outward "appearance" of higher prices received is that it throws operations into higher tax brackets, even though the spending power of the "additional revenue" is, if anything, less. Oldtimer, you and I are blessed just to be employed. Many folks are not nearly as lucky. Your dear President and Liberal-caused agendas, restrictions, and powerful unions are much of the reason the economy is in the dumps.

Same here Soap, even with the higher prices ,you can now maybe break even .IF and only IF you are dept free.
 

katrina

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I was stunned.. Dean was sick so we took him to the doctor. An office visit is $100.00 now..... :shock: Now don't get me wrong I love our home town doctors, nurses, and hospitals.... Tell me about those record prices again!!!
 
A

Anonymous

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Soapweed said:
Oldtimer said:
So- to play Devils Advocate-- is this the reason we are seeing $2000 pairs, $900 calves, cull bulls that sold at $1 lb ($2000+) this summer and cull cows selling for record HIGH prices :???:


.....


Oldtimer, just because you have the added benefit of an oil boom going on in your immediate area does not mean that the rest of the country is so fortunate. Yes, it looks like calves might be about 20% higher this fall than a year ago. On the other hand, have you checked out the price of cake for this year? It is up a whopping 50% from a year ago. Other costs of production, including fuel and taxes of all kinds, are also significantly higher. All of a sudden the extra "income" from calf sales doesn't seem as "great." Another hidden boondoggle from the outward "appearance" of higher prices received is that it throws operations into higher tax brackets, even though the spending power of the "additional revenue" is, if anything, less. Oldtimer, you and I are blessed just to be employed. Many folks are not nearly as lucky. Your dear President and Liberal-caused agendas, restrictions, and powerful unions are much of the reason the economy is in the dumps.

Soap the only thing local the oil boom has done locally is raise purchasing/rental prices on housing and highered help....(For Katrina- Doctors visits - with insurance are still only $20 matching/deductable...Are you opposed to the raised corn/grain prices that came with the Bush introduced ethanol program :???: )...

That apparently hasn't affected the cattle prices or the profit to be made off the average family operated ranchs/farms... Maybe so on the big corporates that can't find help- so instead are importing in immigrant/Mexican help for summer help (which has created a mixed issue in the community).....

So Soap- show me what taxes are higher in the past 2-3 years!

I know our local property taxes are because our O&M tax for the irrigated land is higher- mainly because of the huge 90 days+ flood damages to the irrigation infrastructure we experienced this year (which the local district folks never applied for FEMA payments from like the Tea Partyier leader Perry did in Texas)- altho it sounds like more government ranch subsidies like EQUIP may me be coming forward for many (which I will not apply for)... Other wise I have seen no raise in taxes...

Fuel/gas prices are similar or less than 3 years ago- when gas was over $4 gallon... For the last several years I always figured in at least a nickel difference in calf price between Miles City and Glasgow- and $10-15-20 cents between Glasgow and the SD/NB markets close to the feedlots because of transportation costs... NO DIFFERENCE EXCEPT THE BASE PRICE THIS YEAR IS MUCH HIGHER...

On Cake- why feed cake if it is so costly :???: Run only the cattle that can survive/thrive on the pasture or hay available- and then that additional cost is not there if its unprofitable :???: ...Run cattle genetics that can efficiently survive in bad years/thrive in good years.... If you can't profit on $800-900 calves-$2000+ cull bulls and $1200+ cull cows this year then you're operation is being run totally wrong !!!!! It wasn't that many years back I can remember selling cull cows for [email protected] ranchs figure that as 10-30% of their income- depending on the year....

And as far as higher tax brackets-- if after all the ranch deductions that come from costs/upgrading equipment/vehicles/cattle/ranch improvements/additions is still over $250,000 income per year between you and Peach (proposed tax rate)-- I don't feel sorry for you...But it sounds like you need to talk to a good ranch accountant/attorney about reorganizing or quit whining...... $250,000 a year after the existing farm/ranch deductions is a pretty fair income.... What other tax increases have came about to be paid this year :???:

As far as younger producers--How about selling it out- so much a year to your sons/daughter- based on % of ranch income :???: Brings in young blood- and means that old farts won't always rule... I worked years doing that buying what I have !! And now I've lined it up to turn it over to the next crew...

As I'm sure with the conservative ranch intelligence you proclaim- you've looked ahead- set up and invested in retirement accounts for you and the wife (so you don't have to rely any on SSI $)- and you have set it up so that the ranchs will move forward to your progeny without any inheritance issues or taxes - or inheritance court battles intermixed between the family (which so often tears them apart) :???:

Just like Big Muddy's was just a gallstone attack- yours could be- in the words of Fred Sanford "the big one" and as I tell folks if you haven't lined things up- :???: ....

SO- my question is why do you believe cattle prices are so high :???:
And if things have been so hunky-dorry in the past years--- why during those supposed times of less regulation have the cattle numbers dropped so drastically- and more folks got out of the cattle industry- which probably has raised the prices :???:

I was sitting in the waterhole the other day- after a meeting/hearing where the state is proposing to raise the cost of grazing from from $6 an AUM to $12 an AUM (on land that borders private/tribal that leases for $30+ an AUM)--- and several cattle producers were screaming they can't make it on this raise in "taxes" (money goes to education fund)-( and others whining about the $4 to $8 an AUM they have to pay on BLM/Federal controlled leases- that has been for years subsidized with Federal matching funds-EQUIP 75% funding for improvements)- and would have to give up their leases with the grazing increas :roll: -- and I was never so happy to hear one of local guys that has worked his butt up from the ground with nothing to start with - that now farms several thousand acres as well as running a thousand or so cows- say IF YOU DON"T WANT IT- I DO....(I'm glad he beat me to it...)
It Shut up all of them and their "so called conservative" whining... :lol:
 

Soapweed

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Oldtimer, I am not going to spend half the night typing a rebuttal, because no matter what I would say, you still are going to love Obama and bash Bush to your dying day. It just sorrows me to see how the Liberals (you included) are selling out on our great country. All that our soldiers have fought and died for, for the past two and a quarter centuries, is about to go by the wayside with the advent of more and more socialistic, communistic, bureaucratic, government rules and regulations. The best system is "That government is best that governs least." This is certainly not the way of Obama's administration. When only half the people actually produce something of value, and the other half of our country are merely leeches of society, something is drastically wrong. This is certainly not a sustainable system, and it is just a matter of time before the corral cleanings hit the propellor blades.
 
A

Anonymous

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Soapweed said:
Oldtimer, I am not going to spend half the night typing a rebuttal, because no matter what I would say, you still are going to love Obama and bash Bush to your dying day. It just sorrows me to see how the Liberals (you included) are selling out on our great country. All that our soldiers have fought and died for, for the past two and a quarter centuries, is about to go by the wayside with the advent of more and more socialistic, communistic, bureaucratic, government rules and regulations. The best system is "That government is best that governs least." This is certainly not the way of Obama's administration. When only half the people actually produce something of value, and the other half of our country are merely leeches of society, something is drastically wrong. This is certainly not a sustainable system, and it is just a matter of time before the corral cleanings hit the propellor blades.

Soap-- this type answer surprises me from you- but does not surprise me from the anti everything group... I was hoping for a true argument of why you agreed with this author and thought the cattle/beef/Ag industry was doing so bad, as he tries to portray... Especially when now we are having such good Ag prices/record cattle prices.... :???:

But the anti everything movements argument now seems to be to just attack the messenger- label them as being anti American-- and wrap themselves in a big US flag and say how much more patriotic they are :roll: ....

I agree with you on many things-- but I can't agree that Agriculture today is in that tough of state as the author portrays.. Like Pat Goggins long said- a good recession/depression can be good for Agriculture- and the Bush Bust "so far" has done that....

Or that oversight on multinational corporate entities that try to/use monopolys to control/leverage prices is bad.... Lack of oversight on the banking/lending industry is what got the countries economy in the position its in....

I believe in corporations. They are indispensable instruments of our modern civilization; but I believe that they should be so supervised and so regulated that they shall act for the interest of the community as a whole.
~Theodore Roosevelt

The best system is "That government is best that governs least."

We'd have to go backwards 200+ years to go back to when the US government had nothing to do in the market....
The last true capitalist/free market system probably existed shortly after the Pilgrims/first settlers traded with the Indians- (and then later ran them off to get more land)....
Since Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton in 1789 proposed the Whiskey tax (on carriage builders and whiskey brewers) to pay for the Revolutionary War- which Washington opposed- but finally agreed to when Hamilton/Congress sweetened the pot and offered to move the national capitol from NYC to Washingtons home state of Virginia (Compromise or home Pork :???: ) the US government has played an influence on the "free market" capitalist system....

are selling out on our great country. All that our soldiers have fought and died for, for the past two and a quarter centuries, is about to go by the wayside with the advent of more and more socialistic, communistic, bureaucratic, government rules and regulations.

Soap- I don't figure on changing your beliefs-- but with you're definition you are painting with a broad swipe- and are incorporating many grain/crop diversified Ag producers- and their organizations (Farm Bureau, NFU, WIFE, Grain Growers, etc, etc...) - that have fought long and hard to get decent corn/grain prices...Which included promoting ethanol research.... And many of which have been as patriotic as you, I, or anyone else- and lost family members for those same two and a quarter centuries helping to build this country... :(
 

Soapweed

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Oldtimer said:
Are you opposed to the raised corn/grain prices that came with the Bush introduced ethanol program :???:

I am not a proponent of ethanol. When it takes about a gallon of oil to produce a gallon of ethanol, how "efficient" is that?

Oldtimer said:
I agree with you on many things-- but I can't agree that Agriculture today is in that tough of state as the author portrays.. Like Pat Goggins long said- a good recession/depression can be good for Agriculture- and the Bush Bust "so far" has done that....

Or that oversight on multinational corporate entities that try to/use monopolys to control/leverage prices is bad.... Lack of oversight on the banking/lending industry is what got the countries economy in the position its in....

Pat Goggins is a sharp old cowboy. I used to subscribe to his paper, but haven't kept up much with his philosophy in recent years. He used to be quite a proponent of using corn, a renewable resource, for energy. When corn got so high that it drastically affected the price of cattle, I wondered if he still thought that ethanol was such a good deal.

As far as "lack of oversight" on the banking/lending industry being the factor that got the country's economy in the position it's in.......this is not exactly the case. The Liberals think everyone should be entitled to own their own home, regardless of whether their credit record is any good. Democrats in Congress voting to allow anyone and everyone to buy a home, and then forcing the banking industry into making these uncollectable loans, is what caused the housing crisis. It wasn't "lack of oversight" as you indicate. In fact it was too much oversight, and unreasonable regulations that banks had to follow.
 

jingo2

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Soapweed said:
Oldtimer, I am not going to spend half the night typing a rebuttal, because no matter what I would say, you still are going to love Obama and bash Bush to your dying day. It just sorrows me to see how the Liberals (you included) are selling out on our great country. All that our soldiers have fought and died for, for the past two and a quarter centuries, is about to go by the wayside with the advent of more and more socialistic, communistic, bureaucratic, government rules and regulations. The best system is "That government is best that governs least." This is certainly not the way of Obama's administration. When only half the people actually produce something of value, and the other half of our country are merely leeches of society, something is drastically wrong. This is certainly not a sustainable system, and it is just a matter of time before the corral cleanings hit the propellor blades.


BULLSHITE!!!


You got no answer cause you know he's RIGHT!
 

hopalong

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Bull shite kolo=jingo=lulu=allie.

Oldtimer is only partly right.
Get off your knees from in front of him,

Ever figure out which Starbucks you were at??? :wink: :wink: :wink:
 

Roundup

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I follow the writings of Pat Goggins and buy his cattle. I am quite confident of his views on how the Obama adminestration has affected the rancher. A recession is one thing, Socialism is quite another. Please do not confuse Mr. Goggin's message and mission as one of liberalism and Socialism.
 

TSR

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Soapweed said:
Oldtimer said:
Are you opposed to the raised corn/grain prices that came with the Bush introduced ethanol program :???:

I am not a proponent of ethanol. When it takes about a gallon of oil to produce a gallon of ethanol, how "efficient" is that?

Oldtimer said:
I agree with you on many things-- but I can't agree that Agriculture today is in that tough of state as the author portrays.. Like Pat Goggins long said- a good recession/depression can be good for Agriculture- and the Bush Bust "so far" has done that....

Or that oversight on multinational corporate entities that try to/use monopolys to control/leverage prices is bad.... Lack of oversight on the banking/lending industry is what got the countries economy in the position its in....

Pat Goggins is a sharp old cowboy. I used to subscribe to his paper, but haven't kept up much with his philosophy in recent years. He used to be quite a proponent of using corn, a renewable resource, for energy. When corn got so high that it drastically affected the price of cattle, I wondered if he still thought that ethanol was such a good deal.

As far as "lack of oversight" on the banking/lending industry being the factor that got the country's economy in the position it's in.......this is not exactly the case. The Liberals think everyone should be entitled to own their own home, regardless of whether their credit record is any good. Democrats in Congress voting to allow anyone and everyone to buy a home, and then forcing the banking industry into making these uncollectable loans, is what caused the housing crisis. It wasn't "lack of oversight" as you indicate. In fact it was too much oversight, and unreasonable regulations that banks had to follow.

Man that Dem. minority during this time was so powerful weren't they???? With respect to your last paragraph, why didn't Bush go on national TV (the way Obama has done so many times) addressing the nation, explaining what the liberals were supposedly doing? If he had, probably not a Dem would have been elected in the subsequent election. If you are one that believes that the Dem's caused this problem. My belief is both party's had some blame, but the one that always has to shoulder the most is the one in power at the time.

Around here its the farmers that are buying up every acre of land they can, so something must be going right for them.
 
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