Sandhusker,
When I made my statement, it was based on my understanding of the situation in the NW plants, particularly Boise and Pasco. Swift even had a plant in Utah that was threatened to be closed. I had read where Excel had been negatively impacted by the closed Canadian border. I had read the information regarding Tyson's NW plants running far below capacity previous to my making my statement. When I made that statement, I knew that Lakeside was running at full capacity but I know enough about packing plants to know that they could not profit enough to offset the losses of two plants, of equal capacity to Lakeside, running at 35% capacity. I had forgot about the expense of SRM until I had read the Canadian government's study into packer profitability. I never even had a chance to present that information because I knew you wouldn't accept anything. Your pride simply wouldn't allow you to. The costs of SRM removal in Canada solidified my point. I had more than enough to go on.
You continually challenge me to prove every statement I make that you do not agree with. You know it and I know it. Yet you seldom ever provide any proof to back your position. It is you that is hypocritical from that standpoint. You really think it's cute how you can spin an issue and create your illusions while taking advantage of my honesty. Take this debate for example, you offered absolutely nothing to contradict anything I stated. Your whole position was based on discrediting what I brought to the table. You called me a liar with absolutely nothing to go on simply based on your belief that I couldn't prove I was telling the truth rather than basing your allegation on the fact that you could prove me wrong. That says everything about the type of person you are.
I made the bet because if I was going to have to prove myself ONCE AGAIN, it was going to be worth my time. My mistake was that I agreed to calendar year 2004 in the process of singling out Tyson because I knew that most of the information I had read pertained to Tyson and not as much to Cargill. Tyson financial data is also more readily available. My mistake was not changing your 2004 recommendation (for simplicity sake) to the entire period of time when the border was closed per my original statement. Had I done that, I would still have my $100. My anger for you calling me a liar got the best of me and you won when I overlooked a small detail of the bet, calendar year 2004. You know what buttons to push. Your calling me a liar doesn't bother me anymore because I now realize that you've just figured out which buttons to push. I now laugh at myself for actually letting you get the best of me one time.
You made your mistake when you thanked Agman for his honesty after he admitted that my original statement was correct but you'd just as soon forget about that. There's a big difference between you and I and it's in each of our level of integrity. You have very little.
When I started digging into the information I had that I posted, I quickly discovered that the greatest losses in Pasco and Boise were in 2005 while the greatest profits at Lakeside were in 2004. Agman confirmed my concerns. I could have easily taken your statement, "The bet revolved around SH's original statement" and slithered around it. I knew what I had agreed to, I admitted that my own research proved me wrong, and I paid up. That has to stand for something when you provided absolutely nothing but a critique of what I brought to the table.
What did I find?
1. Boise and Pasco running at 35% capacity while paying workers for a 32 hour work week. "HUGE LOSSES" reported in these plants. No surprise.
2. Agman provided the slaughter capacity of these two plants as compared to Canada.
3. Agman has provided the data on expenses to process an animal.
4. Lakeside profits had dwindled in 2005 and there was actually a quarter, while the border was closed, where they lost money
5. According to the Alberta study conducted by their government, the costs of SRM removal was the biggest reason packers were paying such low prices in Canada.
6. I called the head of cattle procurement from Tyson to find out the the losses in Boise and Pasco were "WAY MORE" than the profits in Lakeside.
I am absolutely, positively convinced that I am right. I would send a check of $500 to anyone who could prove me wrong and God knows I can't afford it. I have more than enough information to go on. I don't need individual plant financial records to know that I am right. Nobody will prove me wrong on this. If this is not good enough for you, fine. So be it. But you damn sure never came close to proving that I lied and I wouldn't lie. If I was a liar, you wouldn't have my $100. I don't care whether you call me a dumb ash, or an idiot, or a moron, or a hundred other names but calling me a liar is fighting words and you know it and that's why you do it. I don't lie. Accuracy and honesty is imperative to me.
Think about it. I live in the heart of R-CULT country and work for the state. Do you honestly think I have anything to gain by presenting the facts in contrast to the theories of those I work for? This causes me nothing but daily grief but the truth is that important to me. I don't have any connections to the packing industry other than typical tug of wars in the sale of fat cattle just like other feeders. I care about the truth. Whether you chose to believe that or not is up to you but the facts and the truth matters greatly to me. Unlike most R-CALFers, I am not driven by a need to blame. I am driven by a need to understand every aspect of this industry to find the truth. I have debated these issues with many producers and those debates all turn out the same. The opposition gets mad when they can't back their beliefs. They get mad when they can't explain why cattle prices are where they are with an opened Canadian border. They get mad when they can't define "captive supplies". Why? Because they are simply repeating what everyone else is saying and noboby takes the time to search for the truth.
I used to support R-CULT until I started doing my own research. Agman gave a presentation in Pierre SD and literally ate the R-CALFers alive with hard data. That opened my eyes and my fathers eyes. Agman also left the same impression in Martin, SD last year when he spoke to many of "OUR" friends. Nobody could refute his data. Agman's data is consitent with the data of University leaders like Purcelle, and Schroeder. Cattle Fax's data is also consistant. You can't alter the truth. Leo, Bill, Mike and the Livestock Marketing Police tell blamers what they want to hear but their positions will not stand up to scrutiny.
Look at R-CALF's phony import/export graph. Do you think it serves anyone's best interest to leave out hides and beef variety meats simply so Bill Bullard isn't exposed for his phony statement about the beef industry being in a trade deficit for two years? Rather than admit to being wrong, they try to justify their position by providing half of the information. WHO IS SERVED BY THAT???? That is where my resentment comes from. Who is served by R-CULT lying about the safety of Canadian beef than changing their storty to fit the U.S. situation??? What was gained anyway? Did Canadian beef disappear off the world market? Hell no! Eventually Canada would have absorbed an equal portion of our export market so who was served by stabbing the Canadian's in the back. That is what absolutely infuriates me about R-CULT. They are so misinformed, so emotionally driven, and they don't have a clue about the consequences of their actions. They're lost!
If R-CULT was in a true debate with industry leaders like Agman, Schroeder, and Purcelle at a major university, R-CULT leaders would be laughed out of the room by bright young economists. Their arguments cannot hold water against the facts. Their positions have already stood the test in court and they've lost every time. Look at cattle prices with an opened border? Is that what they predicted? Did they admit to being wrong? Hell no and they won't! They go on to the next blaming issue as if they never said it. Everything I loathe in humanity.
If you don't want to believe me on this issue, I don't care but you called me a liar and that won't be forgotten. Anyone that knows me knows that I am not a liar regardless what the consequences. I learned that lesson as a kid.
Remember, a lie is not saying something that is untrue. A lie is saying something that is untrue WITH THE INTENT TO MISLEAD. Conman does it every day.
~SH~