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Recession--Depression??

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into a Recession--or a Depression?

  • No-the Economy is doing Fine

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a mild short Recession

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Economic Collapse

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

Goodpasture

Well-known member
failure to enforce existing banking rules, SEC rules and appointing a good ole boy AG instead of a competent one.

It's called leadership. It is called economic sense. You do not relax the rules to the point that you put existing institutions in peril, I don't care how many of those guys are your friends or contributed to your election.
 

Steve

Well-known member
gp
failure to enforce existing banking rules,

countrywide was a scum-sucking bottom feeding corporation*, but so far there is no indication they broke the law... or any existing banking rules... and if they have I hope they get prosecuted to the full extent of the law.... maybe you could enlighten us to the laws they broke?...


would you have our President target corporations?


or uphold existing laws as passed by the legislature?

*
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/business/yourmoney/26country.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
I still have some pretty good friends and sources that are involved in Federal law enforcement-- and a few weeks back they were telling me that 1/3 of all Federal law enforcement (FBI-Postal Inspectors- Bank and Securities Regulators, etc.) are assigned to this subprime and banking investing fraud schemes-- and that so far they have just touched the tip of the iceberg....Some are working with states/citys/countys to set up/train local officers and make up task forces....

Altho they didn't go into names or details they said you are going to see major banks (several of the countries top 10) going under--and major banking leaders/bureaucrats/politicians being drawn in and hopefully indicted...And that these are just out and out frauds from day one where someone has to lose bigtime- just like a pyramid scheme--that should have been stopped, before they got anywhere close to this big- but that the current aura in D.C. that "anything is legal, if you call it free market enterprise" left many of the overseers hands tied to do anything :roll: :( ....

But like they said "We ain't seen nothing yet"!!
 

Steve

Well-known member
Oldtimer
but that the current aura in D.C. that "anything is legal, if you call it free market enterprise" left many of the overseers hands tied to do anything

if a law is on the books, how is an investigator/prosecutions hands tied?


I do not think it would be possible to provide enough Laws and protection for the greed that took over the housing market..


most scams are dependent on the greed of the victim. They are convinced that they are getting something for nothing, or something for a lot less than it's worth, and they are blinded to the truth. You can't con an honest man... :roll:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Steve said:
Oldtimer
but that the current aura in D.C. that "anything is legal, if you call it free market enterprise" left many of the overseers hands tied to do anything

if a law is on the books, how is an investigator/prosecutions hands tied?

If the President/Administration- and his buddy AG"s who wrongly represented the President instead of the people- head attorneys of the regulatory agencies all advise to look somewhere else- or to not enforce them--thats what happens...Thats what the Inspector Generals office said that the GIPSA investigators were being told to do by their administrator, JoAnn Waterfield--"shuffle papers and make it look like your doing something"- and they never filed a case :( :( ......


I do not think it would be possible to provide enough Laws and protection for the greed that took over the housing market..


most scams are dependent on the greed of the victim. They are convinced that they are getting something for nothing, or something for a lot less than it's worth, and they are blinded to the truth. You can't con an honest man... :roll:

People in this country have been brought up- programmed that the government has laws, rules, and safety measures that protect them--and put a lot of trust in their government doing that and that major Government licensed institutions have honorable ethical people working for them-- especially when working with their neighborhood bank- not knowing that their loan is going to be sold and resold and that the guarantees their banker gave them face to face will mean nothing...They should be concerned when dealing with the streetcorner shylock or the mafia don-- but not when they working with a licensed lending institution :shock:

I've worked with a lot of folks that have been scammed-- many older people that can't believe these scammers can operate in the open the way they do...Its just that the amount of crooks in many cases have outgrown the number of overseers.....

And its a sad note-- that so many businessmen in this day of Walmart type stores- and world banks are dishonest and cannot be trusted-- and that you can't even buy something without taking along a cadre of attorneys to read the reams of paperwork and small print....

Everyone putting the all mighty dollar above all else!!!

I only hope this scandal and the continuing domino fall behind it doesn't bankrupt our country....
 

Goodpasture

Well-known member
Steve said:
.... maybe you could enlighten us to the laws they broke?...
http://graphics8.nytimes.com//images/2008/01/08/business/Countrywide_Transcript.pdf


How is this? CW hanky panky in Bankruptcy court. Borrowers claiming they were not informed of escrow increases and increased payments and were never in arrears until notified of foreclosure.
--
18 THE COURT: Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Hold it.
19 Wait a minute. You're saying that you -- there's a letter
20 dated 2003 at a certain address that you weren't in until a
21 subsequent time?

22 MS. STEIDL: Yes, sir.
23 THE COURT: Yet this is a letter that was represented
24 to acknowledge or support the first change notice on this
25 property?

1 MS. STEIDL: Yes, sir. The letter was dated
2 September 22nd, 2003, directed toward my client, carbon copied
3 to Ronda Winnecour and Ken Steidl at the Gulf Tower address,
4 but on September 22nd, 2003, we were at 210 Grant Street. So I
5 just asked Ms. Puida to explain the two, because I didn't
6 understand the discrepancy, and she told me that these letter
7 that they sent -- they sent three -- are recreation letters.

8 They're not the first letter that was sent. They're just --
9 THE COURT: What is a -- never heard of a recreation
10 letter. That's a letter that they don't have, and now they've
11 recreated to support the allegation that they actually sent a
12 prior letter?
13 MS. STEIDL: Well, that would be how it sounds. I
14 don't mean to mis-characterize it, but that's how it sounds.
15 All of these letters were -- there are three of them, and they
16 were all recreated.
17 THE COURT: All recreated letters.
18 MS. STEIDL: That's one in '03, one in '04, and one
19 in '05.
20 THE COURT: Okay. That's pretty interesting. Go
21 ahead.
22 MS. STEIDL: Okay, so --
23 THE COURT: Well, what were the letters purportedly
24 to represent or offer?
25 MS. STEIDL: The change -- apparently, some of the

1 problem was, according to Countrywide, that the loan amounts
2 changed with escrow changes, because she doesn't have a
3 variable rate. It's a fixed rate. So the first letter in
4 September 22nd, 2003, and we didn't move to our new office
5 until October 27th, so there's like a six-week difference
6 there. And it says, "This letter is to advise you that the
7 escrow requirement has changed per the escrow analysis. The
8 amount of the escrow is now this, 2235.07," and it goes on to
9 explain about the escrow. And then it says that they're
10 raising her monthly mortgage payment to 603 from approximately
11 500. We didn't get that letter.
12 THE COURT: All right. Let me -- you said the other
13 two are recreation letters, too. It's not the same -- how do
14 you know that? Based on a same address issue or for other
15 reasons?
16 MS. STEIDL: No, Ms. Puida told me.
17 THE COURT: All right.
18 MS. STEIDL: She said that they put them into
19 evidence when it happened, so we could understand that it
20 happened. That they were recreated.
21 THE COURT: Oh, that's nice. All right, but -- and
22 they allege that they actually sent these letters at one time,
23 but they don't have the originals? Is that it?

24 MS. STEIDL: You would have to ask her. I didn't go
25 that far.

Why do you think there is such a backlog today of investigations? Because the banks are failing, and there has been no oversight from those who are supposed to provide oversight, in the past 7 years. Had criminal activity been prosecuted at the onset, a lot less bankers and brokers would have broken the law. When they saw how easy it was to get away with, then the sky became the limit, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Wall Street became the target of the crooks....the biggest bank robbery in the history of mankind, and with the full compliance of the Bush Whitehouse who told the investigators and the enforcement people to stand down and do nothing.
 

Steve

Well-known member
OldTimer
not knowing that their loan is going to be sold and resold and that the guarantees their banker gave them face to face will mean nothing...

How is that illigal?

how is selling a loan a scam?

My first VA laon 20 plus years ago was sold a dozen times before I paid it off.. was Bush to blame for that to?


Oldtimer
and that you can't even buy something without taking along a cadre of attorneys to read the reams of paperwork....

buying a house is a big transaction.. getting a mortage is as well.. but most of the reams of paperwork are required because of the goverment regulations.. and the cadre of lawyers..

OldTimer
that so many businessmen in this day of Walmart type stores- and world banks are dishonest and cannot be trusted-

then don't do business with them.. and when they starve of the all-mighty dollar they will fold..


OldTimer
People in this country have been brought up- programmed that the government has laws, rules, and safety measures that protect them--and put a lot of trust in their government doing that and that major Government licensed institutions have honorable ethical people working for them-- especially when working with their neighborhood bank

and in most cases that is what happens... but unfortunatly there is no law against people being dis-honorable nor unethical..

and blaming Bush for others' lack of charactor will not solve anything..
 

Goodpasture

Well-known member
Steve said:
but unfortunatly there is no law against people being dis-honorable nor unethical..

and blaming Bush for others' lack of charactor will not solve anything..
Yes, there is. It is called fraud. misrepresenting what is being bought and sold is illegal. Doing that in the banking industry is called wire fraud and is investigated by the FBI ......PROVIDED the administration entrusted to enforce the law is willing to do so. It is Bush's lack of character and integrity that provided the environment that allowed the other lack of integrity and character to thrive.
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Yesterday I was in Tolar, TX and noted the ads on the store bulletin board looking for employees.

Saturday I was getting a cup of coffee at a convenience store call "Last Chance" in southern Hood County and saw ads on the board there looking for equipment operators at a stone quarry. "Will train". The starting salary was excellent.

So far I haven't seen anyone on a street corner selling apples for a nickel.

Everyone you talk to says they cannot find good hands to go to work for them. The oil companies are begging for employees to work on the drilling rigs.

Rig welders are knocking down a quarter a million a year and all of them are working more hours than they want to.

People are begging me to come clear brush with the Caterpillar because all the dozer operators are back logged putting in pipelines, clearing drilling pads etc.

These are the facts folks. Employers are begging for drug free employees. It is worse right now (locally anyway) than it was when everyone said the economy was good.
 

Cowpuncher

Well-known member
Backhoeboogie,

I see the same things that you do. There are jobs aplenty for good people that aren't fooling around with drugs and aren't alcholics. Those with a good work ethic will always be in demand.

Those that sit around and whine about it all being someone else's fault would never last in most of the places I have worked. We always sorted them out pretty well in the first interview.

A side light - your comments on welding are pertinent. I spent many years in corporate finance and since, I have learned to do a decent job welding. Any highschool kid that doesn't want to go to college ought to go to trade school and become a journeyman welder.

My daughter was taking a craft class and was shown how to weld. The instructor told her to work at it and $50.00 and hour would be hers - she is a small skinny person who can get into places most men can't. She passed it up. but just shows that there are opportunities there.

Also, its not like the stuff needing welding can be shipped offshore and done by foreign labor!!!
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Cowpuncher said:
Backhoeboogie,

I see the same things that you do. There are jobs aplenty for good people that aren't fooling around with drugs and aren't alcholics. Those with a good work ethic will always be in demand.

Those that sit around and whine about it all being someone else's fault would never last in most of the places I have worked. We always sorted them out pretty well in the first interview.

A side light - your comments on welding are pertinent. I spent many years in corporate finance and since, I have learned to do a decent job welding. Any highschool kid that doesn't want to go to college ought to go to trade school and become a journeyman welder.

My daughter was taking a craft class and was shown how to weld. The instructor told her to work at it and $50.00 and hour would be hers - she is a small skinny person who can get into places most men can't. She passed it up. but just shows that there are opportunities there.

Also, its not like the stuff needing welding can be shipped offshore and done by foreign labor!!!

That $50 an hour applies if you work for someone else. It is awfully tempting to keep my 40 hour a week job (pension building) and quit the part time 50 hour a week farming. Fertilizer prices are going to cut into profits heavy. I could take the welder, bolt it down in the back of the truck and start freelancing afterhours. LOL you'd need some fire extinguishers right now also with all the dry grass.

I don't think I'll change anything for now. Not that hungry. But it I was....
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
More on Wall Street are finally having to admit what has been apparent to many for some time..... :roll:

Goldman Sachs: U.S. Recession in 2008

MoneyNews
Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2008


NEW YORK -- Goldman Sachs Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/scripts/money/printer.pl?page=http://moneynews.newsmax.com/money/archives/articles/2008/1/9/102603.cfm?s=al&promo_code=42A3-1
 
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Anonymous

Guest
Goodpasture said:
I am a disciplinary hearing officer for the Oklahoma Real Estate Appraisers Board. We have hearings scheduled, two a week, from now till the middle of February and more in the pipeline. I am filing three complaints this week. The process to get an appraiser complaint to that level requires nearly half a year of investigation. Most of the appraisers that get that far have their license revoked (we do not like to let a guy who performs fraudulent appraisals surrender it....gives him the opportunity to move to Kansas or Texas or some where and start all over again). I also do upgrade work-product reviews, and of the 30 or so I have seen in the past year, 80% were incompetent. I finished such a review this morning about 4. I am seriously considering filing a complaint over the files he submitted as HIS BEST WORK! He has done several hundred appraisals over the past four years, and I bet NONE of them are worth the paper they are written on.

The problem, is this is the STANDARD, not the exception. And if Wall Street took those to the bank, the problems the media is reporting is like saying it was an ice cube that hit the Titanic.

The market is going to be corrected in one of two ways......real estate portfolios are going to be valued at below 50% of last years valuation, or phony money is going to be printed and sent to the investors to instill confidence. If the first, the economy will take a hit and adjust (and the fallout will be tremendous.....everything from Unions funds to insurance funds invested in REITs are going to be turned into toilet paper) and we will hit a major depression. If we print more money, and it kills the dollar (which it will) then we are in for a catastrophic depression.

And yes, virtually every state is scrutinizing appraisers now.

From what I read, the Fed is going to continue to throw money at the economy...probably until Bush leaves office. Then it's up to the new president to deal with the financial mess Bush is leaving us.
 

Tex

Well-known member
ff said:
Goodpasture said:
I am a disciplinary hearing officer for the Oklahoma Real Estate Appraisers Board. We have hearings scheduled, two a week, from now till the middle of February and more in the pipeline. I am filing three complaints this week. The process to get an appraiser complaint to that level requires nearly half a year of investigation. Most of the appraisers that get that far have their license revoked (we do not like to let a guy who performs fraudulent appraisals surrender it....gives him the opportunity to move to Kansas or Texas or some where and start all over again). I also do upgrade work-product reviews, and of the 30 or so I have seen in the past year, 80% were incompetent. I finished such a review this morning about 4. I am seriously considering filing a complaint over the files he submitted as HIS BEST WORK! He has done several hundred appraisals over the past four years, and I bet NONE of them are worth the paper they are written on.

The problem, is this is the STANDARD, not the exception. And if Wall Street took those to the bank, the problems the media is reporting is like saying it was an ice cube that hit the Titanic.

The market is going to be corrected in one of two ways......real estate portfolios are going to be valued at below 50% of last years valuation, or phony money is going to be printed and sent to the investors to instill confidence. If the first, the economy will take a hit and adjust (and the fallout will be tremendous.....everything from Unions funds to insurance funds invested in REITs are going to be turned into toilet paper) and we will hit a major depression. If we print more money, and it kills the dollar (which it will) then we are in for a catastrophic depression.

And yes, virtually every state is scrutinizing appraisers now.

From what I read, the Fed is going to continue to throw money at the economy...probably until Bush leaves office. Then it's up to the new president to deal with the financial mess Bush is leaving us.

Just like the deficit.


GW never had limits because of his family and the republican party never limited him.

To me, this party is over.
 

Goodpasture

Well-known member
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/01/10/prices-fall-in-16-of-20-major-housing-markets/
Prices of properties listed for sale continued to fall in December, dropping in 16 of 20 major markets, while West Coast cities lead the charge.

According to a report from real estate research firms Altos Research and Real IQ, released late Wednesday, San Francisco saw average home prices drop 4.6 percent during the past three months, while Las Vegas, San Diego, Los Angeles and Detroit all registered price declines of over 3 percent.

And most people are waiting till spring to put their houses on the market, anticipating lower interest and some sort of resurgence in the economy. When inventories of houses double, what the economy tumble.
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Just got an offer in the mail today. $23K an acre just for the mineral rights. I keep the farm and everything on it. I'm turning the offer down.

There are still ads all in the paper. Petro companies are looking for I & E techs to go through an apprenticeship. They'll pay for college.

Many more opportuities to go to work right now than I have ever seen in my life time. Too bad those opportunities weren't around when I was just starting out.
 

Steve

Well-known member
BackHoeBoogie
Many more opportuities to go to work right now than I have ever seen in my life time. Too bad those opportunities weren't around when I was just starting out.

Double-digit inflation and interest rates, near double-digit unemployment, the truly worst economy since the great depression, an inflation-adjusted gas price of $4.50 or so a gallon, utterly spineless, incompetent foreign policy,wheat piled up.. farms failing.. I remember Jimmy...

today.. interest rates are at about 7% unemployment 5%
gas is a bit high... but then again Jimmy set aside Alaska so we could get gas from it,... until Bill screwed US on that one...
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
You have a good memory indeed.

Wasn't it about '74 when the gas shortage hit and they told us we only had 10 years left? :D

In the 60's you wanted a toy and you were told, "maybe for Christmas."

You looked forward to going to your grandaddy's house because he'd take you out for a hamburger at a burger joint once you finished loading all the square hay bales. That hamburger was a treat and if you were really lucky you'd get a strawberry shake to go with it. You could go to school and Monday and brag to everyone.
 

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