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Recession--Depression??

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into a Recession--or a Depression?

  • No-the Economy is doing Fine

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a mild short Recession

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Economic Collapse

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
A

Anonymous

Guest
Red Robin said:
...and the market goes up 300pts on that news?

Thats what the Bloomberg and CNN "experts" are saying...A 600 point turn around on the DOW from 300 points in the red-- to 300 points in the good--but no one stock profitted (gained) one bit today....

For the last week or so- the talk has been that abuse and misuse of money by these Bond Insurers- which would bankrupt them and make all government bonds about worthless (unable to sell) was going to be much worse than the subprime fiasco...More lack of enforcement of regulations :roll: And this was driving the Stock/Bond instability...

So now they say a backroom deal was cut- (can't have any of our elitists going broke :roll: ) to guarantee the government money will be put in to cover them.....
 

Tex

Well-known member
There is absolutely no reason in the world that some of the architects of the problem like the Pres. of Countrywide, should walk away with big money like the 82 million he took out before the big fall.

People like that make Martha Stewart's crime look like jay walking.

The bad thing is that there are many rich well connected people who did not do due diligence who will walk away very wealthy off of the pushing of the envelope that was unsuccessful. They were usually people in the know, because of their position (like Goldman Sach's short sellers), and they will never be held accountable in any way for the failings of the system they ran.

Our regulatory agencies did not fulfill their job as regulators either. That is what happens when the foxes guard the hen house.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Tex said:
There is absolutely no reason in the world that some of the architects of the problem like the Pres. of Countrywide, should walk away with big money like the 82 million he took out before the big fall.

People like that make Martha Stewart's crime look like jay walking.

The bad thing is that there are many rich well connected people who did not do due diligence who will walk away very wealthy off of the pushing of the envelope that was unsuccessful. They were usually people in the know, because of their position (like Goldman Sach's short sellers), and they will never be held accountable in any way for the failings of the system they ran.

Our regulatory agencies did not fulfill their job as regulators either. That is what happens when the foxes guard the hen house.

Now that the word of nonenforced laws - and playing around to get these elitists out of trouble-is becoming apparent- old Lou Dobbs has been just ripping the policians a new A hole--both Repubs and Dems....
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Red Robin said:
...and the market goes up 300pts on that news?

Thats what the Bloomberg and CNN "experts" are saying...A 600 point turn around on the DOW from 300 points in the red-- to 300 points in the good--but no one stock profitted (gained) one bit today....

For the last week or so- the talk has been that abuse and misuse of money by these Bond Insurers- which would bankrupt them and make all government bonds about worthless (unable to sell) was going to be much worse than the subprime fiasco...More lack of enforcement of regulations :roll: And this was driving the Stock/Bond instability...

So now they say a backroom deal was cut- (can't have any of our elitists going broke :roll: ) to guarantee the government money will be put in to cover them.....

First you are predicting another Black Tuesday, and now in light of good news that the sky did not fall you just can not except good news. The Dow had the second largest change bottom to high in its history and you are still looking for the Gloom.

I bet you are a mood killer at parties! Not only is the glass half empty for you, but its dirty and someone spit in it.

And I believe some stocks did profit today.

The financial sector was the big winner of the day, powered by jumps in such stocks as Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs), up 9% to $29.38; Wachovia (WB, news, msgs), up 10.6% to $35.30, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs), up 12% to $45.72.

JPMorgan's gain was the biggest among the 30 stocks in the Dow. Twenty-five Dow stocks finished with gains on the day, along with 391 S&P 500 stocks and 68 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX.X) stocks.
 

Red Robin

Well-known member
aplusmnt said:
I bet you are a mood killer at parties! Not only is the glass half empty for you, but its dirty and someone spit in it.
:lol: and it's got a chip on the rim and it's GW's fault I'm having a bad day.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
aplusmnt said:
Oldtimer said:
Red Robin said:
...and the market goes up 300pts on that news?

Thats what the Bloomberg and CNN "experts" are saying...A 600 point turn around on the DOW from 300 points in the red-- to 300 points in the good--but no one stock profitted (gained) one bit today....

For the last week or so- the talk has been that abuse and misuse of money by these Bond Insurers- which would bankrupt them and make all government bonds about worthless (unable to sell) was going to be much worse than the subprime fiasco...More lack of enforcement of regulations :roll: And this was driving the Stock/Bond instability...

So now they say a backroom deal was cut- (can't have any of our elitists going broke :roll: ) to guarantee the government money will be put in to cover them.....

First you are predicting another Black Tuesday, and now in light of good news that the sky did not fall you just can not except good news. The Dow had the second largest change bottom to high in its history and you are still looking for the Gloom.

I bet you are a mood killer at parties! Not only is the glass half empty for you, but its dirty and someone spit in it.

And I believe some stocks did profit today.

The financial sector was the big winner of the day, powered by jumps in such stocks as Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs), up 9% to $29.38; Wachovia (WB, news, msgs), up 10.6% to $35.30, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs), up 12% to $45.72.

JPMorgan's gain was the biggest among the 30 stocks in the Dow. Twenty-five Dow stocks finished with gains on the day, along with 391 S&P 500 stocks and 68 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX.X) stocks.

Well according to Bloomberg- its only because a whole bunch more Taxpayer dollars will be used to prop up the bond insurer financial institutions.....And this ain't the end of the freefall the Stock market is going to take- and the Fed will cut interest more to prop it up--which will speed up inflation that has been/is killing the middle class and working man....

No wonder so many can't afford health insurance- in some of the figures released today-- it was reported that along with the huge raises in gas and heating oil- the cost of health care insurance increased 10.6% just last year...

Maybe we need to have GW and the Congressmen paying their own insurance so they are aware of these things-instead of their bailouts of their elitist investor buddies....
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
aplusmnt said:
Oldtimer said:
Thats what the Bloomberg and CNN "experts" are saying...A 600 point turn around on the DOW from 300 points in the red-- to 300 points in the good--but no one stock profitted (gained) one bit today....

For the last week or so- the talk has been that abuse and misuse of money by these Bond Insurers- which would bankrupt them and make all government bonds about worthless (unable to sell) was going to be much worse than the subprime fiasco...More lack of enforcement of regulations :roll: And this was driving the Stock/Bond instability...

So now they say a backroom deal was cut- (can't have any of our elitists going broke :roll: ) to guarantee the government money will be put in to cover them.....

First you are predicting another Black Tuesday, and now in light of good news that the sky did not fall you just can not except good news. The Dow had the second largest change bottom to high in its history and you are still looking for the Gloom.

I bet you are a mood killer at parties! Not only is the glass half empty for you, but its dirty and someone spit in it.

And I believe some stocks did profit today.

The financial sector was the big winner of the day, powered by jumps in such stocks as Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs), up 9% to $29.38; Wachovia (WB, news, msgs), up 10.6% to $35.30, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs), up 12% to $45.72.

JPMorgan's gain was the biggest among the 30 stocks in the Dow. Twenty-five Dow stocks finished with gains on the day, along with 391 S&P 500 stocks and 68 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX.X) stocks.

Well according to Bloomberg- its only because a whole bunch more Taxpayer dollars will be used to prop up the bond insurer financial institutions.....And this ain't the end of the freefall the Stock market is going to take- and the Fed will cut interest more to prop it up--which will speed up inflation that has been/is killing the middle class and working man....

No wonder so many can afford health insurance- in some of the figures released today-- it was reported that along with the huge raises in gas and heating oil- the cost of health care insurance increased 10.6% just last year...

Maybe we need to have GW and the Congressmen paying their own insurance so they are aware of these things-instead of their bailouts of their elitist investor buddies....

:lol: I am going to go watch a comedy movie with family, all this gloom has me reaching for the Prozac :lol:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Glen Beck- the quite conservative pundit/talk show host says that from what he's being told by economic advisors and he gathers with his own observations is that the folks with money are thinking this recession/depression is going to be long and deep....

He says much of the reasoning behind this observation is the amount of money being put into treasury bonds- as the folks have been amassing money into the 30 year Treasury Bonds which keeps driving their interest down (4.1% now)....Putting it in what they feel is the most secure investment (altho he commented he's not sure the government is secure anymore) and tying it up for 30 years thinking its going to be a long long time before the economy will have recovered to where they could better use the money..... :???: :(
 

MoGal

Well-known member
While there's 180 trillion in derivatives and 20 trillion that will have to be written down and we're nowhere near to hearing that yet .............. found this and the banks are broke.....

http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/2008/01/americas-teeter.html

the full article is above and i don't know if it will show these graphs
------------------------------------------------

So, why did Bernanke cut rates when he knew it would just add to the housing woes?


Some critics say that he just wanted to throw a lifeline to his fat-cat investor buddies on Wall Street by providing more liquidity for the markets. But that's not it, at all. The fact is, Bernanke had no choice. He's facing a challenge so huge and potentially catastrophic; that cutting rates must have seemed like the only option he had. Just look at these graphs and you'll see what Bernanke saw before he decided to cut interest rates. NEGATIVE BANK RESERVES; The banks are busted.





In the first graph (Total borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve) shows that the banks are “capital impaired" and borrowing at a rate unprecedented in history.





The second graph (Non borrowed reserves from of Depository Institutions) shows that the capital that the banks do have is quickly being depleted.





The third graph (Net Free or borrowed reserves of Depository Institutions) is best summed up by econo-blogger Mike Shedlock who says: “Banks in aggregate have now burnt through all of their capital and are forced to borrow reserves from the Fed in order to keep lending. Total reserves for two weeks ending January 16 are $39.98 billion. Inquiring minds are no doubt wondering where $40 billion came from. The answer is the Fed's Term Auction Facility”. ( See: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis;) So the only reserves they have is capital they borrowed from the Fed.





The forth Fed graph illustrates the steep trajectory of the ever-expanding money supply. (Monetary base)


A careful review of these graphs should convince even the most hardened skeptic that the banking system is basically underwater and insolvent. We are entering uncharted waters. The sudden and shocking depletion of bank reserves is due to the huge losses inflicted by the meltdown in subprime loans and other similar structured investments.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Rogers has been warning about the dangers of the Feds printing money for sometime- and now he thinks the continued Bernanke actions are going to spell gloom and doom.....

"We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we’ve had since the Second World War. It’s not a good scene,”

I do hope he's right about the Agriculture commodoties not being too negatively affected......

Reprinted from MoneyNews.com
Jim Rogers: ‘It’s Much Worse Than I Expected’


Friday, Feb. 1, 2008 10:58 a.m. EST


Superstar investor Jim Rogers is nothing if not consistent.

He still sees commodities and Chinese stocks soaring to the sky. And he still sees the U.S. economy and American stocks falling into the toilet. So he tells Fortune magazine.

"I’m extremely worried,” he said of the U.S. economy. "I have been for a while, but I just see things getting much worse this time around than I expected.”

Rogers thought the Fed already had gone too far in trimming the federal funds rate 75 basis points last week. Never mind the additional 50 basis points this week.

"Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I’m afraid it’s going to be much worse,” Rogers told Fortune.

"Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He’s out of control, and the Fed is out of control,” he said.

"We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we’ve had since the Second World War. It’s not a good scene,” Rogers said.

Perhaps even a return of the dreaded 1970s-era stagflation.

For 20 years, Rogers, a co-founder of the hedge fund Quantum along with investment icon George Soros, has been singing the praise of China. He’s not changing his tune now.

The recent corrections in Chinese stocks are a positive development, Rogers maintains. Both the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets have dropped more than 20 percent from their highs.

"As I’ve said, if things hadn’t cooled off, the Chinese market was in danger of turning into a bubble,” Rogers says. "I find this most encouraging. The government’s been doing its best to cool things off.”

While he sees a bit more downside to the China market before it rebounds, Rogers is looking to eventually jump into booming sectors such as tourism, agriculture, power generation and airlines.

"Whether I buy this week or this month or this quarter, who knows,” Rogers says. "But I’m starting to think about buying new shares in China for the first time in a while.”

Rogers is an proponent, too, of the "de-coupling” theory – that American woes won’t undermine China.

"They won’t even know America’s in recession,” he says. "They won’t care if America falls off the face of the earth.”

His anticipation of recession in the U.S. also hasn’t dampened Rogers’ enthusiasm for commodities.

"Certainly some commodities are going to be affected,” he says. "But it’s not as if the markets haven’t figured this out.”

He believes that recent declines in the prices of metals like nick and zinc are harbingers of the U.S. recession that’s coming. But he’s not concerned. Growing world economies are going to keep buying, he says.

"Nickel is already down 50 percent. Other commodities may fall more. But I don’t see the economics of agriculture being much affected at all. Maybe there will be a few less cotton shirts bought. Maybe there will be a few less tires bought. But the supply is under more duress than the demand.”

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/money/archives/st/2008/2/1/105850.cfm?s=st
 

Mike

Well-known member
Consider the source.

Jim Rogers and George Soros founded the Quantum Fund together back a few years ago before it got it's a$$ kicked in the hedge fund business.

Birds of a feather.. :roll:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Reprinted from MoneyNews.com
Roach: Subprime ‘Dwarfs’ Dot-Com Bust


Friday, Feb. 1, 2008 10:48 a.m. EST


Think the subprime mortgage problem is just another version of the dot-com crash, or maybe an echo of the S&L crisis of old?

Think again, says Morgan Stanley Chairman Stephen Roach.

Speaking in Davos, Switzerland, Roach told investors that this time it really is different. Echoing similar comments by global financier George Soros and his former partner Jim Rogers, Roach said that the coming downturn will be severe.
Why? Because the portion of the economy linked to this collapse is six times larger than IT spending was at the time of the dot-com bust, according to reporting on the comments in the Financial Times.

This recession will be more than a year long and three times deeper than the last one, he warned. "The magnitude dwarfs anything we saw seven years ago," Roach said.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Wallstreet Plummetting--DOW falls more than 500 points (5%) in last 2 days......Nero fiddled while Rome burned and GW keeps plunking his one string banjo- and sending jobs and taxpayers money overseas - nation building around the world-while the nation known as the United States goes down the sewer..... :( :( :cry: :cry: :mad: :mad:

Reprinted from MoneyNews.com
Recession Fear: Service Sector Falls to 7-Year Low

MoneyNews
Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008


NEW YORK -- The U.S. services sector retrenched sharply in January to levels not seen since the 2001 recession, renewing fears about an economic slump, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing plummeted to 41.9 from 54.4 in December, its largest monthly decline on record and a far greater drop than Wall Street expected. A Reuters poll of economists had produced a median expectation of a slip to 53.0

"The recession has indeed arrived," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management in Burlington, Vermont.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction, and bond prices jumped as the figures reinforced investors' conviction that the U.S. economy is already in recession. Stocks sold off.

The employment index fell to 43.9 from 51.8, corroborating last week's dire U.S. payrolls report, which showed the first net monthly contraction in the labor market in more than four years.


Weakness was evident across the board. A measure of new orders fell to 43.5 from 53.9.

"It's another recession marker on the radar screen," said Cary Leahy, economist at Decision Economics in New York.

Reprinted from MoneyNews.com
Planned Layoffs Up 69 Percent Jan. vs. Dec.

MoneyNews
Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008


NEW YORK -- U.S. companies' planned layoffs rose 69 percent in January from the previous month and were up 19 percent from January 2007, a report showed on Monday.

Planned job cuts in U.S. companies totaled 74,986 in January, compared with 44,416 in December, employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
backhoeboogie said:
Should I go look at my checking account just to make sure I still have money in there?

That will be next--but no matter what your balance says- its worth a lot less than the same amount was a year ago....... :( :(
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
backhoeboogie said:
Should I go look at my checking account just to make sure I still have money in there?

That will be next--but no matter what your balance says- its worth a lot less than the same amount was a year ago....... :( :(

I bet you his check book has a lot more in it than it did back in 1992-2000, you want to bet? And I don't have any idea of his finances.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
aplusmnt said:
Oldtimer said:
backhoeboogie said:
Should I go look at my checking account just to make sure I still have money in there?

That will be next--but no matter what your balance says- its worth a lot less than the same amount was a year ago....... :( :(

I bet you his check book has a lot more in it than it did back in 1992-2000, you want to bet? And I don't have any idea of his finances.

Are you saying backhoe is an illegal immigrant worker :???: :wink: :lol: :p
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
aplusmnt said:
Oldtimer said:
backhoeboogie said:
Should I go look at my checking account just to make sure I still have money in there?

That will be next--but no matter what your balance says- its worth a lot less than the same amount was a year ago....... :( :(

I bet you his check book has a lot more in it than it did back in 1992-2000, you want to bet? And I don't have any idea of his finances.

This is one of those things I shouldn't answer until I know if wagers were made or not. :shock:
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
backhoeboogie said:
Should I go look at my checking account just to make sure I still have money in there?

That will be next--but no matter what your balance says- its worth a lot less than the same amount was a year ago....... :( :(

That is all relative. If the dollar is dropping in value, your net worth is increasing based on your holdings.

You have to keep that liquid capital too such that you can buy up things cheap when the panic hits.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
backhoeboogie said:
Oldtimer said:
backhoeboogie said:
Should I go look at my checking account just to make sure I still have money in there?

That will be next--but no matter what your balance says- its worth a lot less than the same amount was a year ago....... :( :(

That is all relative. If the dollar is dropping in value, your net worth is increasing based on your holdings.

You have to keep that liquid capital too such that you can buy up things cheap when the panic hits.

How can that be- when the value of your house/property has devalued by 10-20% depending on where it is at- and if you left money in a stock invested retirement fund- it has devalued by the same amount as it normally gains in 10-15 years growth....Also if you were trying to buy or sell land or anything else- the funding (loan money) is a lot harder to find.....

The only thing that has increased is your operating costs- and because it is raising so much/so fast- banks are getting awful nervous lending these much larger amounts for operating notes- with the threat of a total economic collapse looming...
 

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