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Recession/Depression??????

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into or in a Recession--or a Depression?

  • No-the Economy is doing Fine

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a mild short Recession

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Economic Collapse

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
A

Anonymous

Guest
The poll I ran in March came back with 64% thinking the economy was in for a prolonged Recession/Depression or Economic Collapse with again the most 34% thinking it will be Economic Collapse...

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into or in a Recession--or a Depression?

No-the Economy is doing Fine
13% [ 6 ]
Yes- a mild short Recession
20% [ 9 ]
Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression
30% [ 13 ]
Economic Collapse
34% [ 15 ]

Total Votes : 43

Lets see how you feel now 3 months later....

The poll I started back in Nov came up with 61% thinking the economy was in for a prolonged Recession/Depression or Economic Collapse-with the most (36%) feeling it will be a prolonged Recession/Depression-what are the feelings today....

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into or in a Recession--or a Depression?
No-the Economy is doing Fine
25% [ 13 ]
Yes- a mild short Recession
13% [ 7 ]
Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression
36% [ 19 ]
Economic Collapse
25% [ 13 ]

Total Votes : 52

In macroeconomics, a Recession is a decline in any country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, this definition is not universally accepted. The American National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession more ambiguously as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation. A severe or long recession is referred to as an economic depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy is called economic collapse. Newspaper columnist Sidney J. Harris amusingly distinguished terms this way: a recession is when you lose your job; a depression is when I lose mine.
 

Steve

Well-known member
all you proved was that 13% of the respondants to your poll were right.. and that 64% were wrong...

The economy grew at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the first quarter,2008

I also believe that if you want something badly enough you will be able to accomplish it... and all who are looking for the media gloom and doom,.. sure seem hell bent on finding it...

I wonder how much Goerge Soros is behind the escalating speculation in oil?

However, Mr Soros warned that the oil bubble would not burst until both the US and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically.

"You can also anticipate that [the bubble] will eventually correct but that is unlikely to happen before the recession actually reduces the demand.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnsoros126.xml

I wonder how he can "predict" that.. ???
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
I also believe that if you want something badly enough you will be able to accomplish it... and all who are looking for the media gloom and doom,.. sure seem hell bent on finding it...

About the only ones I see spouting anything that isn't gloomy are members of the GW Gang- and their credibility was long ago lost with me.....

The fact that GW has refused to use- and ordered his staff not to use the "r" word shows me the reliability of anything they say-- and probably how gloomy our economies outlook is...... :(

If you can't even face the problem-or discuss it- how can you fix it :???:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
AAA announced today that the average cost of gasoline has reached a new record landmark high--- $4.00 a gallon......Diesel fuel at $4.75 a gallon- which is up almost 200% in the last year....Gas up 83% in the last year....

Sure going to cut the hell out of what we make off the calves this fall- and probably the main reason no one is even offering any early contracts this year...

:(
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Local poll currently running in the Billings Gazette
http://www.billingsgazette.net/

Interestingly if you add energy prices and economy together- which are related- that comes to 62% that feel that is the most important issue in considering the candidates to vote for.....

Which topic is most important to you when considering which candidates to vote for?

Economy

685 votes (38%)


National security

325 votes (18%)


Iraq War

202 votes (11%)


Energy prices

434 votes (24%)


Health care

144 votes (8%)


1790 total votes.
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
OT you need to quit crying wolf and go ahead and pull that trigger. We are waiting on that recession you have been promising for over a year now.

We have all sat around liquid just waiting on the collapse. It hasn't happened yet.

Maybe, just maybe someone will start listening to you and panic. Many of us are poised to buy up everything for pennies on the dollar when it happens.

Keep up the wolf crying. Maybe someone is going to listen some day. We won't qualify for a recession for atleast 6 more months. With the way the economy is going, this quarter is lost for your R word "told you so" episode again.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Todays CNN poll
The economy is:
Poor 83% 137333
Somewhat good 15% 24432
Very good 2% 3498
Total Votes: 165263

The American National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession more ambiguously as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation.

Looks to me like we are already in one....
 

hopalong

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Todays CNN poll
The economy is:
Poor 83% 137333
Somewhat good 15% 24432
Very good 2% 3498
Total Votes: 165263

The American National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession more ambiguously as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation.

Looks to me like we are already in one....

Don't you know a poll can be changed by just the wording alone so for other than a way to try and sway the public polls are worthless.

You live and die by polls don't you oldtimer
 

Larrry

Well-known member
deadhorseot1mm0.jpg
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Toll Bros. CEO: Housing Could Fall 20 Percent More

Wednesday, June 4, 2008 2:48 PM


PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- The chief executive of Toll Brothers, the nation's largest luxury-home builder, said Wednesday the housing industry is in a "depression" and any recovery could be two or three years away.


In candid remarks at the JPMorgan Basics & Industrials Conference a day after reporting a second-quarter loss, Robert Toll said he's not ready to call a bottom yet since the housing market could still get worse.


"Can the market go down another 10 or 20 percent? Sure," said Toll, whose Horsham-based company will sit on cash unless a bargain land deal comes along.


He said the current housing crisis is the worst he's seen since the mid-1970s, but back then the decline was relatively short-lived. The current downturn started in late 2005.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/companies/toll_brothers_depression/2008/06/04/101563.html


'Credit Recession' Could Last Two Years

Wednesday, June 4, 2008 10:40 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A "credit recession" sparked by a downturn in the U.S. housing market and excesses in structured finance may last more than two years, and the financial sector may undergo "massive consolidation," according to two leading Wall Street strategists.


The downturn may last for "two, two and a half years" which may help lead to a healthier market, Jack Malvey, Lehman Brothers' chief global fixed income strategist, said during a conference in New York.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/financenews/credit_recession/2008/06/04/101477.html

Housing Crisis Final Bill: $4 Trillion

Wednesday, June 11, 2008 3:43 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - No one knows when the credit crisis will end.


But when it does, U.S home prices may have lost a third of their value, high-yield bond valuations will hit levels close to those seen during the last recession, and what may amount to $1 trillion of Wall Street losses may translate into almost $4 trillion of lost access to capital.


That's the view of top credit analysts, who say a U.S. housing decline, sparked last year by subprime mortgage debt defaults, will likely last another two years as a wider group of consumers, including prime borrowers, feel the pinch from a tightening of credit.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/headlines/housing_crisis_cost/2008/06/11/103652.html
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
73% of those answering believe the economy is in for a long recession and/or depression or for economic collapse....

I ran this same poll on the 5 Bar X website- which apparently is a little more optomistic- with only 53% believing the economy is in for a long recession and/or depression or for economic collapse....But 92% on there believing that there will be some type recession or worse...

Either way- the majority sees the economy as not good...
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
No Recession? It Feels Like One For Consumers

Wednesday, June 4, 2008 3:55 PM



WASHINGTON -- This might be the worst non-recession in years.


U.S. data is pointing to an economy that is still chugging along, albeit slowly, yet consumers are behaving as if the country is in the throes of the deepest downturn in decades.


The latest figures Wednesday showed unexpectedly healthy expansion in the services sector, strong productivity gains, and private-sector job growth. Those are not exactly the hallmarks of a recession.


But at the same time, consumer confidence is at recessionary levels, and retailers are well aware that households have curbed spending on all but the essentials.


Analysts expect only slim gains when chain stores report May sales figures Thursday, despite the billions of dollars in tax rebates that have already arrived.


Even upscale department stores such as Saks are feeling the pain. Its chief executive said last month that consumers were acting as if they were experiencing a recession, whether the country was technically in one or not.


"Thanks to aggressive monetary and fiscal policy, it may not look like a recession in the conventional sense, but after a year or two we will all feel like we've just been through a recession," said Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.


Rogoff expects a protracted period of subpar growth as consumers retrench, a sort of "payback" for excessive spending in the early part of the decade. The easy credit that fueled that spree has dried up, and it will take years to rebuild the household wealth lost to the housing downturn.


"If we take declining employment, falling housing prices, rising prices for necessities like food and oil, and a distinct collapse in credit markets, no wonder consumers are feeling strapped," Rogoff said.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/investing/recession_/2008/06/04/101608.html
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
But at the same time, consumer confidence is at recessionary levels, and retailers are well aware that households have curbed spending on all but the essentials.

Most of us working class haven't been splurging for years and years anyway. We've been socking away what investments we could and it has paid off. This seems to be simply smarter consumer spending to me.
 

hopalong

Well-known member
backhoeboogie said:
Oldtimer said:
But at the same time, consumer confidence is at recessionary levels, and retailers are well aware that households have curbed spending on all but the essentials.

Most of us working class haven't been splurging for years and years anyway. We've been socking away what investments we could and it has paid off. This seems to be simply smarter consumer spending to me.

Most of us haven't gone into the loal Dodge dealership and bounced the owner on his knees for a new rig either :roll:
The dealers do not own those cars/trucks on the lot they merely have them on a basic consigment it is not very likely they are going to let you drive out the door with a new car/truck after you tell them to "put it my bill" Especially if the economy is as bad as you say it is OLDTIMER.

Some people live by credit, some die by credit, the rest use credit to theit advantage.
Without a credit card try renting a car on line, reserving a hotel room. buying flowers for your wife when you are out of town from the phone!!!
Yes creditcards can be a problem if used incorrectly, but then so can the people who make polls be a problem by the way they phrase the question!
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
hopalong said:
Most of us haven't gone into the loal Dodge dealership and bounced the owner on his knees for a new rig either :roll:
I worked with his Dad for 25+ years....

The dealers do not own those cars/trucks on the lot they merely have them on a basic consigment it is not very likely they are going to let you drive out the door with a new car/truck after you tell them to "put it my bill" Especially if the economy is as bad as you say it is OLDTIMER.

Actually the last new one I bought- the dealer delivered to me in the hay field and said "drive it for a few days"--then when we decided to buy it he called my bank- had all the paperwork handled and all I had to do was stop at the bank and sign them..But that was before the credit bust too.....

Some people live by credit, some die by credit, the rest use credit to theit advantage.
Without a credit card try renting a car on line, reserving a hotel room.

Seldom do that- but a Bank Debit card works as well- and you don't have to pay out vig to a shylock...


buying flowers for your wife when you are out of town from the phone!!!

Actually the neighbors wife who partners on some farm land with me owns the flower shop- all it takes is a call- even if I'm out of the area and want to send them to a third area- she handles it and I'd just as soon have her make money than someone I don't know...She just sends me a bill- and I'm not supporting some shylock lending outfit..

Yes creditcards can be a problem if used incorrectly, but then so can the people who make polls be a problem by the way they phrase the question!

If people know you- and you haven't blown your credibility trying to deceive people by portraying yourself to be someone you aren't :roll: :wink: :lol: :p theres a lot of things you can handle without a credit card...Anyway in this area...
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Dang OT did the truth hurt or what?

Think about all the nickels you have dropped at that local tavern you keep getting all that info from. Yes we have heard about it many times. The bar tender will tell you whatever you want to hear as long as you keep yourself there. If you had invested those nickels wisely, you wouldn't be so worried about the economy.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
backhoeboogie said:
Dang OT did the truth hurt or what?

:???:

You mean King Georges "peonizing" of Americans- his policy to lower working Americans standard of living down to the same as Mexico, China, and India-- so his globalization will work better in his elitist Corporate buddies goals to see a multinational Corporation dominated One World Order?.....
 

Cal

Well-known member
backhoeboogie said:
Oldtimer said:
But at the same time, consumer confidence is at recessionary levels, and retailers are well aware that households have curbed spending on all but the essentials.

Most of us working class haven't been splurging for years and years anyway. We've been socking away what investments we could and it has paid off. This seems to be simply smarter consumer spending to me.
Be careful, they'll start disparaging you for having been able to sock anything away.
 

MoGal

Well-known member
Well, they wouldn't pay attn to Nouriel Roubini as he has talked about this for a while:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.


RBS warning: Be prepared for a 'nasty' period
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.


RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.


"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.

RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.

"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.

US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.


The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.

"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.

Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.

"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.

Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.

 

hopalong

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
hopalong said:
Most of us haven't gone into the loal Dodge dealership and bounced the owner on his knees for a new rig either :roll:
I worked with his Dad for 25+ years....

The dealers do not own those cars/trucks on the lot they merely have them on a basic consigment it is not very likely they are going to let you drive out the door with a new car/truck after you tell them to "put it my bill" Especially if the economy is as bad as you say it is OLDTIMER.

Actually the last new one I bought- the dealer delivered to me in the hay field and said "drive it for a few days"--then when we decided to buy it he called my bank- had all the paperwork handled and all I had to do was stop at the bank and sign them..But that was before the credit bust too.....

Some people live by credit, some die by credit, the rest use credit to theit advantage.
Without a credit card try renting a car on line, reserving a hotel room.

Seldom do that- but a Bank Debit card works as well- and you don't have to pay out vig to a shylock...


buying flowers for your wife when you are out of town from the phone!!!

Actually the neighbors wife who partners on some farm land with me owns the flower shop- all it takes is a call- even if I'm out of the area and want to send them to a third area- she handles it and I'd just as soon have her make money than someone I don't know...She just sends me a bill- and I'm not supporting some shylock lending outfit..

Yes creditcards can be a problem if used incorrectly, but then so can the people who make polls be a problem by the way they phrase the question!

If people know you- and you haven't blown your credibility trying to deceive people by portraying yourself to be someone you aren't :roll: :wink: :lol: :p theres a lot of things you can handle without a credit card...Anyway in this area...

That is you Oldwhiner, your poll did not state responses were limited to only in your area, and people with good credit rating, (I would put mine up there above yours) but that is another matter.
As I stated 99.9% of the people cannot call a dealer and have them deliver a truck to a hay field, 99.9% of the people do not conviently
have a neighbors wife they can call.
If you pay the credit card off every month there is no interest, I know of several that do that as opposed to using a check book or debit card.
 
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