Finding the 'right' rebels in Syria: One tough job
By Tim Lister, CNN
updated 10:04 AM EDT, Mon September 22, 2014
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
U.S. has promised to supply and train "acceptable" rebels in Syria
At best, analysts say the plan could cement Bashar al-Assad's grip on power
More likely is perpetual anarchy, escalation in refugee crisis, destabilization and export of jihad
(CNN) -- The United States has promised to supply weapons, communications equipment and training to rebels in Syria so they can help battle the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS.) Now comes the hard part: identifying "acceptable" groups able and willing to take the fight to ISIS. The security landscape in Syria changes daily. Alliances and priorities among the many rebel groups shift, fortunes ebb and flow. And the hard truth is that none of them appears able to uproot ISIS from its strongholds in north-eastern Syria.
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Surveying this grim landscape, one could be excused for wondering how vetting and training rebel fighters -- 5,000 to start with -- can turn the tide. Landis says 5,000 -- properly armed, disciplined and provided with intelligence could dent either ISIS or the Assad regime. "Assad is very weak, after four years of war," he says, "but at the moment the others are all weaker."
The rosiest scenario, says Landis, sees moderate Sunni groups eventually carving out a state in northern Syria, expelling ISIS in the process, while the regime holds onto Damascus and a swathe of the coast around Latakia. But Syria has a habit of confounding all but the grimmest of scenarios, and Landis acknowledges that "perpetual anarchy" seems more likely.
There is another pitfall in fuelling the conflict with more weapons: escalating fighting could drive even more Syrians across the border, further destabilizing Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The U.S. has consistently sought to contain the Syrian conflict; ISIS would like nothing better than to export it.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/meast/syria-rebels-lister/index.html?hpt=hp_t1