10/04/2012 updated forecast still gives win to Mitt Romney
With the presidential election a little more than a month away, political science professors from the University of Colorado have updated their election forecast with more current economic conditions and are standing by their prediction that Mitt Romney will win.
The professors -- Kenneth Bickers of CU's Boulder campus and Michael Berry of CU's Denver campus -- project that Romney will earn 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes.
President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes, which is down five from the initial prediction that the professors announced on Aug. 22.
The model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and, they say, it is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. To make their predictions, the professors comb economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
The professors' model includes state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in income.
The professors have identified 13 battleground states and the only one to change in the update was New Mexico, which they now predict as a narrow victory for Romney.
The model predicts that Romney will carry Colorado, with 53.3 percent of the vote. Bickers said that Colorado should expect to see more activity from both the Obama and Romney campaigns.
darn debate cost Obama five more electoral votes..