News from the Votemaster
Polar bear special today. Yesterday we reported that a rich businessman, Vic Vickers, is spending $410,000 to defeat Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) in the Alaska senatorial primary. We added that Vickers didn't have a prayer. That was yesterday. Today is today. In politics, a week--make that a day--is a long time. Stevens took bribes from an oil company and then concealed the payments (of $250,000) on official Senate forms he filed. Yesterday he was indicted on seven felony counts of making false statements on his financial disclosure forms.
Stevens is the longest serving Republican senator in history but it is hard to see how he can survive now. No doubt the (private) pressure from fellow Republicans to drop out will be immense. If he ignores them and stays in the race and manages to eke out a victory against the unknown Vickers, real estate developer David Cuddy, and several other Republicans (who are likely to split the anti-Stevens vote), he gets to face off with Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D) in the Fall. Begich is young, good looking, popular in the state, and well funded (one of Chuck Schumer's priorities). Begich is already ahead in the polls and the indictment probably seals Stevens' doom.
The Republicans best-case scenario is that Stevens wins the Aug. 26 primary and then drops out before Sept 17. In that case, the Alaska Republican Party gets to name the new nominee. They could name Gov. Sarah Palin (R), but the state legislature decided Monday to investigate her for abuse-of-power charges for trying to fire her state trooper brother-in-law who is in a bitter child custody dispute with her sister. They could name Rep. Don Young (R) but he is under investigation for corruption as well. Their best best is to name Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, who is running in the House primary, but could switch to the Senate race if the slot opens up to due the nominee's resignation and the state party wants him to. If Stevens drops out after Sept. 17, his name remains on the ballot.
But Stevens is not the kind of guy who gives up easily and is probably not keen on going to jail at 84 so he may deny all charges and not drop out. Second best scenario for the Republicans is that Vickers or Cuddy wins the primary. Then the Republicans have an unknown but at least untainted candidate against Begich. That becomes the classic battle of an established Democratic politician against a rich businessman.
Stevens indictment could easy affect the House race in Alaska as well since Young is facing a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R). A Hays Research Group (D) poll puts Young's unfavorable rating at 56% and his favorable rating at 41%. In a trial heat against Parnell, Young loses 42% to 46%. However, when Parnell is paired against the Democrat, former state legislator Ethan Berkowitz, Berkowitz has a slight lead of 33% to 30%. Stevens' indictment only makes Young's task harder as all the Democrats will be yelling "Republicans are corrupt" from now until November and a lot of Republican voters will shake their heads in dismay and agree.
The only top official in Alaska not in a current scandal is Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), but she has a bit of a cloud over her head, too. She was initially appointed to the Senate by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski (R-AK), but later won election on her own. She had ethical problems last year though.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/160224.php
All in all (1) lots of action in Alaska, (2) the Democrats chances of picking up this Senate seat have probably improved, (3) the Democrats chances of picking up the House seat are now maybe 50-50, and (4) the national Democrats have more ammo in other races to paint the Republicans as out of touch and corrupt. Three state legislators and two lobbyists have already been convicted in the Alaska scandal. CQ Politics changed its rating on the Senate race yesterday from leans Republican to leans Democratic. A lot rides on what Stevens does.