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Slaughter cows vs. Replacement cows

Trinity man

Well-known member
I have been tracking some numbers the past few months and have found some pretty enteresting figures.


Slaughter/Replacement cows
% Slaughter cows %Replacement cows Auction Total cows
8-Apr-10 61% 39% Nac. 414
13-Apr-10 90% 10% ETL 658
11-May-10 42% 58% Nac. 550
20-Apr-10 59% 41% ETL 565
22-Apr-10 49% 51% Nac. 331
27-Apr-10 73% 27% ETL 528
4-May-10 69% 31% ETL 504
6-May-10 61% 39% Nac. 363
11-May-10 74% 26% ETL 536
13-May-10 59% 41% Nac. 430
18-May-10 74% 26% ETL 514
20-May-10 69% 31% Nac. 239
25-May-10 73% 27% ETL 567
27-May-10 61% 39% Nac. 538
1-Jun-10 81% 19% ETL 465
3-Jun-10 55% 45% Nac. 345
8-Jun-10 83% 17% ETL 573

Nac = Nacogdoches Livestock Exchange, Nacogdoches, TX
ETL = East Texas Livestock, Crockett, TX
 

Kato

Well-known member
The last bred cow sale we went to had about the same ratio. And that was a BRED COW SALE. :shock: :shock: :shock: Slaughter cow prices have improved since then, so the cull will speed up, if anything.
 

Trinity man

Well-known member
I start doing this back in April when it seems like a ton more cows were being slaughter than going back home. The million dollar question is where are the cows going to come from to replacement all these cows being slaughter? No one down here is holding any replacement heifers back. Last year few years there has been more feeder heifers being sold than the previous years. And this trend seems to be growing out of the sales I report and the guy I trained for Navasota livestock. Do any of you see the same from your part of the country?
 

Denny

Well-known member
Lots of guys here in their 70's not much interested in expanding. I'm hopeing to keep 40 or so heifers back this fall.I need to build a few more trailers to reach that goal though.Bills still need paying.I do know any cow stubbing her toe is gone with the high cull prices.
 

Trinity man

Well-known member
I am seeing the samething around here. When I am at the sales and look around I am about the youngest one there and I am in my 40's. It's just not many young guys or gal's wanting to work their buts off 7 days and week 365 days a year anymore. I would say the avg. rancher around here is 65-70 years old.
 

Carter

Well-known member
I would love to run more cattle!!! Prob is finding a place to put them. More and more land owners now days seem to be deer hunters or city folks that don't want cows around or are just running a few pets and don't sell the calves. Hard to find leases, and extremely difficult or i personally think impossible to pay for land by running cattle at todays land prices. I don't raise replacements period, just doesn't fit in my program, i would rather sell the heifer for $500-700 at weaning/or weaned put $500-600 with it and buy a second or third calf 3n1 package at a replacement sale. Also play the old cow deal, buy heavy bred old cows or pairs, raise the calf, palpate and make a decision from there. find me some land i'll run more cows :D :D :D
 

burnt

Well-known member
Trinity man said:
I am seeing the samething around here. When I am at the sales and look around I am about the youngest one there and I am in my 40's. It's just not many young guys or gal's wanting to work their buts off 7 days and week 365 days a year anymore. I would say the avg. rancher around here is 65-70 years old.

The age thing. It came up loud and clear in a recent edition of our farm paper.

A retired government worker in the agricultural sector wrote in to say that the sharply rising average age of farmers is not a bad thing - it just shows that people are living longer than they used to, that modern machinery has made the job so much easier, that farmers are enjoying their work more, yada, yada . . .

He said nothing about the historically low return making it impossible for young farmers to justify the extremely high start up costs.

I would disagree with your comment about the young ones not wanting to work hard enough - all of our children work long hours at their respective jobs but they are also paid for what they do.

However, if they were to work those same hours in farming for themselves, I am not too sure that they could see any return for their efforts. Maybe I am just too pessimistic because of what we have gone through up here since BSE wiped a lot of us out. (Or at least, wiped out our equity)

But even the old guys are throwing in the towel on beef cows around here lately. They have watched too much of their equity go down the drain in the past 7 years and their cows are going to town.

And a lot of the ground that they had cows on isn't much good for anything else. Some of that land is being broken up and when they get the stones all off of it, it still just grows a half a crop of soybeans.

The implications of this shift are staggering and the country doesn't even notice because the grocery store shelves are full.
 

Horseless

Well-known member
Trinity man said:
I have been tracking some numbers the past few months and have found some pretty enteresting figures.


Slaughter/Replacement cows
% Slaughter cows %Replacement cows Auction Total cows
8-Apr-10 61% 39% Nac. 414
13-Apr-10 90% 10% ETL 658
11-May-10 42% 58% Nac. 550
20-Apr-10 59% 41% ETL 565
22-Apr-10 49% 51% Nac. 331
27-Apr-10 73% 27% ETL 528
4-May-10 69% 31% ETL 504
6-May-10 61% 39% Nac. 363
11-May-10 74% 26% ETL 536
13-May-10 59% 41% Nac. 430
18-May-10 74% 26% ETL 514
20-May-10 69% 31% Nac. 239
25-May-10 73% 27% ETL 567
27-May-10 61% 39% Nac. 538
1-Jun-10 81% 19% ETL 465
3-Jun-10 55% 45% Nac. 345
8-Jun-10 83% 17% ETL 573

Nac = Nacogdoches Livestock Exchange, Nacogdoches, TX
ETL = East Texas Livestock, Crockett, TX

If these numbers were from our area I wouldn't think much of it. I don't believe this would be a time when replacement cows or heifers sold.

I can only speak for our area, but my guess that replacement females whether heifer calves, bred heifers or bred cows are sold in the fall, winter and some in early spring. Many replacement females around here are home raised also many purchased privately and many calves even purchased over the video. The dept of Ag. or stats, probably can give a more accurate picture.
 

allen57

Well-known member
burnt said:
Trinity man said:
I am seeing the samething around here. When I am at the sales and look around I am about the youngest one there and I am in my 40's. It's just not many young guys or gal's wanting to work their buts off 7 days and week 365 days a year anymore. I would say the avg. rancher around here is 65-70 years old.

The age thing. It came up loud and clear in a recent edition of our farm paper.

A retired government worker in the agricultural sector wrote in to say that the sharply rising average age of farmers is not a bad thing - it just shows that people are living longer than they used to, that modern machinery has made the job so much easier, that farmers are enjoying their work more, yada, yada . . .

He said nothing about the historically low return making it impossible for young farmers to justify the extremely high start up costs.

I would disagree with your comment about the young ones not wanting to work hard enough - all of our children work long hours at their respective jobs but they are also paid for what they do.

However, if they were to work those same hours in farming for themselves, I am not too sure that they could see any return for their efforts. Maybe I am just too pessimistic because of what we have gone through up here since BSE wiped a lot of us out. (Or at least, wiped out our equity)

But even the old guys are throwing in the towel on beef cows around here lately. They have watched too much of their equity go down the drain in the past 7 years and their cows are going to town.

And a lot of the ground that they had cows on isn't much good for anything else. Some of that land is being broken up and when they get the stones all off of it, it still just grows a half a crop of soybeans.

The implications of this shift are staggering and the country doesn't even notice because the grocery store shelves are full.

Could be because they are working at their off-farm job to be able to pay the bills and be able to afford to own a few cows....... Unless you run multiple hundreds of commercial cows on thousands of acres, a family isn't going to sustain a living from cows.

I look around the salebarn I go to and I see retired folks with pensions and such that have a few cows and a lot of time on their hands. Actually, many of them don't have cows anymore, it is just something they enjoy doing and a place to gather with friends. The ones making a living from cattle aren't their.......they are to busy. The younger ones that are their are doing their job.....buying.

I see and understand this, because during the 27 years I worked an off farm job, I never had the time to set thru a sale. Now that I don't work off farm, I can afford the time to do so. Still don't set thru the whole sale, just watch the cows sell and sometimes a few calves. And you can bet you butt I'm not earning a living off my few cows.
 

Trinity man

Well-known member
Horseless said:
Trinity man said:
I have been tracking some numbers the past few months and have found some pretty enteresting figures.


Slaughter/Replacement cows
% Slaughter cows %Replacement cows Auction Total cows
8-Apr-10 61% 39% Nac. 414
13-Apr-10 90% 10% ETL 658
11-May-10 42% 58% Nac. 550
20-Apr-10 59% 41% ETL 565
22-Apr-10 49% 51% Nac. 331
27-Apr-10 73% 27% ETL 528
4-May-10 69% 31% ETL 504
6-May-10 61% 39% Nac. 363
11-May-10 74% 26% ETL 536
13-May-10 59% 41% Nac. 430
18-May-10 74% 26% ETL 514
20-May-10 69% 31% Nac. 239
25-May-10 73% 27% ETL 567
27-May-10 61% 39% Nac. 538
1-Jun-10 81% 19% ETL 465
3-Jun-10 55% 45% Nac. 345
8-Jun-10 83% 17% ETL 573

Nac = Nacogdoches Livestock Exchange, Nacogdoches, TX
ETL = East Texas Livestock, Crockett, TX

If these numbers were from our area I wouldn't think much of it. I don't believe this would be a time when replacement cows or heifers sold.

I can only speak for our area, but my guess that replacement females whether heifer calves, bred heifers or bred cows are sold in the fall, winter and some in early spring. Many replacement females around here are home raised also many purchased privately and many calves even purchased over the video. The dept of Ag. or stats, probably can give a more accurate picture.

I do the stats for the Texas Department of Agriculture/USDA in the East Texas area. These number have been increasing since 2005, but the biggest jump just started back in the spring.
 

Angus 62

Well-known member
There are quite a few pairs going to town and being split here. Saw some 250-275 pound calves bring $400 on Wed. With their mothers bringing $800 plus by the pound. At least for some folks they are avoiding the chance of $500 calves and 40 cent cows this fall. It is the old bird in the hand story.

Still those cows will not be going back to the country-ever. Sometimes when cattle prices are good even some of the decent older cows might get another chance come fall.
 

Aaron

Well-known member
burnt said:
Trinity man said:
I am seeing the same thing around here. When I am at the sales and look around I am about the youngest one there and I am in my 40's. It's just not many young guys or gal's wanting to work their buts off 7 days and week 365 days a year anymore. I would say the avg. rancher around here is 65-70 years old.

The age thing. It came up loud and clear in a recent edition of our farm paper.

A retired government worker in the agricultural sector wrote in to say that the sharply rising average age of farmers is not a bad thing - it just shows that people are living longer than they used to, that modern machinery has made the job so much easier, that farmers are enjoying their work more, yada, yada . . .

He said nothing about the historically low return making it impossible for young farmers to justify the extremely high start up costs.

I would disagree with your comment about the young ones not wanting to work hard enough - all of our children work long hours at their respective jobs but they are also paid for what they do.

However, if they were to work those same hours in farming for themselves, I am not too sure that they could see any return for their efforts. Maybe I am just too pessimistic because of what we have gone through up here since BSE wiped a lot of us out. (Or at least, wiped out our equity)

But even the old guys are throwing in the towel on beef cows around here lately. They have watched too much of their equity go down the drain in the past 7 years and their cows are going to town.

And a lot of the ground that they had cows on isn't much good for anything else. Some of that land is being broken up and when they get the stones all off of it, it still just grows a half a crop of soybeans.

The implications of this shift are staggering and the country doesn't even notice because the grocery store shelves are full.

I disagree with that statement. I would like to say the majority of the farm kids are working long hours in town jobs, but that would be a lie. I've met quite a few who are more lazy than even the town kids.

I term long-hours as beyond 40 hours a week, otherwise it's not long, just as normal as everyone else. Not too many kids (farm or town) working those hours. And they better include weekends and evenings off.

I noticed over the years that those parents who were optimistic and happy with farming had a greater likelihood of their kids taking over. Don't blame the kids.[/b]
 

burnt

Well-known member
Aaron, I hear what you are saying and can only add that each situation is different, I guess. Of the few farm-raised kids that this area has produced, the majority of them are kids that anyone would be proud to hire. Of course there are likely a few who will always be in for what they can get for themselves.

But by far the majority are tradesmen or professionals who are making solid contribution to society. There are carpenters, nurses, physiotherapists, reflexologists (she is a farmer wife), laborers, etc. A few farm as well.

And the way things are today, they cannot get by with working just a 40hr. week.

Our 4 kids work just as hard as I ever did. The Oldest 2 are electricians, one licensed and the other just getting ready to write the exam for his ticket, our daughter in a nurse who just recently started a full-time 42 hr./wk job with a shift arrangement that allows her to pick numerous shifts at a part-time job to give her a total of 60 -65 hrs. a week, and our youngest son, 18, works on a dairy farm that milks 500 cows. He has averaged 265 hrs/ month since January.

So, if all of them would spend that amount of time farming for themselves, what do you think their chances would be at making a go of it? In any type of farming here in Ontario?
 

burnt

Well-known member
Having said all that, I want to believe that a young person can get started in farming/ranching if they want to. There are always opportunities to get a foot in the door if one wants to badly enough.

I wanted to badly enough, I guess.

This past winter there were a lot of chances to buy very cheap bred cows at HERD DISPERSALs.

For example, one chap told me that in February he paid $500 for a Red Angus cow which calved two weeks later. She now has a calf beside her that is worth about what he paid for the cow! And there were lots more like her.

So the opportunity was there.
 

Angus 62

Well-known member
I agree with burnt - but it is darn tough for people to get started. I sell bulls to a young guy that bought half of the family ranch some years back and had the chance to buy the other half a couple of years ago. He said he couldn't sleep for weeks trying to decide if he wanted to go even further in debt. Finally took the plunge. BUT he works like heck and is darn resourceful . He built his own hydrabed one spring using a lot salvaged parts. Said he had less then two thousand in it.

I had a guy tell me a while back the a lot of the young people who's families have the resources for them to stay in the operation are only interested in driving the newest equipment and have less and less interest in things like cows.
 

nortexsook

Well-known member
I think the take home issue is the price of land is prohibitive. Unless it is inherited it won't support a cattle operation.

And lease land is like finding the proverbial "pot-o-gold". Just not there either.

The next 20 years could be real interesting.

As with any endeavor the key is to have some liquidity, some equity, a good banker, and a sharp pencil.

And like with poker, you DON'T play every hand.
 

Red Barn Angus

Well-known member
I couldn't agree more with all the comments being made. But I remember my dad saying much the same thing probably 40 years ago. All the neighbors were in their 60's or older. Who is going to take care of this land in another 10 or 15 years? My dad has been gone some 10 years now and I'm well past SS age. I'm just a part timer really and I handle more land that dad ever did. All the land in that neighborhood is still being taken care of and is getting reasonably good care. Most of the operators are sons of those "old" guys back then. There aren't as many of them but each handles so much more and somehow the work still gets done. We have big stock trailers or semi trucks now where dad had neither. The 4 row planters have been replaced with 16 row planters. The old 6' pull behind combines have been replaced with big self propelled machines. I don't know if we are better off or not as it requires much more land to pay for all this bigger equipment but we are producing more crops, bigger calves and probably doing it easier than folks did 40 years ago. And somehow the land and equipment is getting paid for even at todays prices. Just my two cents.
 
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