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The truth behind the 30 month age barrier - do you know it?

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bse-tester

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Let's get it out there once and for all time, do any of you know the real truth behind the reason the 30 month age limit has been put on cattle? See if you are right and let us get down to it once and for all!

Is it because of the general concensus that cattle younger than 30 months cannot possibly contract prion disease? Or is it because the politicians said that was the case??

Or, can it possibly be that cattle younger than 30 months, generally speaking, do not display the clinical symptoms of having prion disease and therefore, according to our politicians, there is no point in testing them if there are no symptoms that identify the disease being present?

The anwser is as clear as gin!
 

Mike

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bse-tester said:
Let's get it out there once and for all time, do any of you know the real truth behind the reason the 30 month age limit has been put on cattle? See if you are right and let us get down to it once and for all!

Is it because of the general concensus that cattle younger than 30 months cannot possibly contract prion disease? Or is it because the politicians said that was the case??

Or, can it possibly be that cattle younger than 30 months, generally speaking, do not display the clinical symptoms of having prion disease and therefore, according to our politicians, there is no point in testing them if there are no symptoms that identify the disease being present?

The anwser is as clear as gin!

Uh-Oh Ron, your questions include the word "Politician". That alone would throw all common wisdom out the window along with the baby, the bath water and the tub.

I heard on the news last night that the British sent 400,000 MRE's to help with the Katrina aftermath. The USDA has ordered them to be sent back or destroyed.

Just meant to show that one agency's "Sound Science", is another agency's folly. I never drink gin. I make my martini's with vodka. :wink:
 

bse-tester

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I prefer rum, dark and uncut! Politicians do however, make the final decisions based upon the color of the sky or the bath water. But they do wield the power and no matter what the science may dictate, they will wield their power to suit the lobby of the day and their misguided intentions which usually lean toward an economic solution rather than a practical one.
 

Big Muddy rancher

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Talk about refusing food aid. My son crosses the border for work and yesterday he had to eat his apple at the port because it didn't have a sticker on it saying that it came from Canada or the US and not elsewhere.. I don't know what they are trying to protect as if it was a New Zealand apple it sat in the same counter space as canadian or washington apples at the store.
 

rkaiser

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Come on boys, everyone who feels they may have some economic advantge in this BSE (bull **** economics) world is using the science of their choosing.
 

PORKER

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It is that cattle younger than 30 months, generally speaking, do not display the clinical symptoms of having prion disease and therefore, according to our politicians, there is no point in testing them if there are no symptoms that identify the disease being present? Testing is more expensive that LOOKING.That's OLD TECHNOLOGY.

New Technology,TEST every Animal before they are SLAUGHTERED FOR BSE!
 

bse-tester

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The fact is that the disease is slow to develop into clinical symptoms that visually display the classic BSE infection. Slow incubation, having the disease, being a carrier of the PrPsc is not a condition that is precluded by age, just as being a toddler in a day-care center is not going to prevent the child from catching a cold or some other diesease. Age is not the factor here, clinical expression of the disease is a major concern and the fact that it typically doesn't display its presence in an animal until that animal advances in age, should raise huge alarm bells to those who try to paint over the fact that any animal is capable of harboring BSE regardless of its age. The arguments as to how that animal contracted the disease are irrevelant in that we must consider the fact that it has it and that is it! But there are those who will try to argue that if it is under 30 months, it is perfectly ok to dismiss the idea of it having BSE. Talk about Russian Roulette wih the health of the consumer!! Sure we can quote stats and see that the odds are certainly against the animal under 30 months from having BSE, but how sure would you want to be? Me, I want to be 100% sure - period!

How many animals have walked to the kill floor and have been carrying PrPsc and displayed absolutely no symptoms? That is a scary thought and we should not be afraid to ask it.
 

Twotimer

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Humans can infect other humans with CJD (via blood) several years before they manifest symptoms. I have NO idea why anyone would be so dumb as to think that it is only when you manifest symptoms that you can transmit a disease. Is that true for other diseases?

And in fact, it now appears that the public health establishment in the UK believes strongly that there are asymptomatic CARRIERS of vCJD. They went so far as to ban 100 people from donating blood and informing them that they might be carriers since 3 people who receive blood from these 100 people died. The blood was donated in 1992 and these people are STILL alive and therefore were able to transmit in 1992 a disease that they have STILL not sucuumbed to or shown symptoms of. It's been THIRTEEN years so if it's true that one of these people is an asymptomatic carrier and transmitted the disease to 3 people, it is more than a decade.

When they picked the 30 month cutoff they realized that ~ 36 months was when they started seeing cows with symptoms and they decided that cows might be able to transmit a YEAR before. Yeah. Uh huh. If the UK is right, asymptomatic individuals might be able to transmit YEARS before.
 

bse-tester

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Twotimer Wrote:

And in fact, it now appears that the public health establishment in the UK believes strongly that there are asymptomatic CARRIERS of vCJD. They went so far as to ban 100 people from donating blood and informing them that they might be carriers since 3 people who receive blood from these 100 people died. The blood was donated in 1992 and these people are STILL alive and therefore were able to transmit in 1992 a disease that they have STILL not sucuumbed to or shown symptoms of. It's been THIRTEEN years so if it's true that one of these people is an asymptomatic carrier and transmitted the disease to 3 people, it is more than a decade.


Having met with some of the UK "Establishment" Scientists and discussed the potential, it is painfully obvious that they are aware of what is coming at them as the population ages. It is well known in England that as time goes by, the condition that has commonly been diagnosed as Alzheimer's Disease, is going to be viewed now as possibly being vCJD. Also, the Brits realize that their stance on what constitued "Risk MAterials" now has little or no meaning as the recognition of the entire animal being a perveyor of PrPsc is in all likelyhood, an absolute fact and not just some SRM material. Blood, tissue samples used in transplant and/or grafting, all all extremely regarded as being suspect in the UK unless shown to be otherwise. God, and I remember lining up as a kid to eat Steak and Kidney Pie!!! At least I hope to retain the memory of the taste of all that good English Pub Grub before all of my systems shut down. Of course, that is if I were carrying the PrPsc, which I am not. The Brits did publicly state that as many as 4500 people over there could be "Current" carriers of the disease [vCJD] and not show any symptoms and that the number may grow depending on how many people were exposed to tainted meat and meat by-products. Of course, a lot of Brits go over to mainland Europe to visit and BSE has been long known to exist there in many countries in Europe so that only serves to compound the potential problems as time goes by and the aging population begins to show clinical signs of having the disorder. As a footnote to the Canadian animal that started it all back a couple of years ago - the farmer actually took the animal to the slaughterhouse in the back of his truck and it was already a "Downer." He simply wanted it to be butchered for his own consumpion. But it made it into the facility where it was sampled and taken off the line. But what if it was not a "Downer" and walked down the shute and into the kill area without even so much as a stumble - would anyone have been able to say that animal was loaded with prion disease? Hell no - it would have even been tagged as Grade "A" Alberta Beef![/quote]
 

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Hell no - it would have even been tagged as Grade "A" Alberta Beef!

As have lots more BSE tester. Your stories are interesting and are likely making some headway in your goal for grant money and acceptence for your test. Congradulations. Might as well. Everyone else on the planet has made this BSE issue into an economic thing.

Your story would lead us all to beleive that we found the only cows in Canada to have BSE. Have you any clue as to the numbers in our survailance system? If your story about infection is true, the whole word will succomb to BSE over time. Give me a break.
 

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It is painfully obvious that they are aware of what is coming at them as the population ages. It is well known in England that as time goes by, the condition that has commonly been diagnosed as Alzheimer's Disease, is going to be viewed now as possibly being vCJD. Also, the Brits realize that their stance on what constitued "Risk MAterials" now has little or no meaning as the recognition of the entire animal being a perveyor of PrPsc is in all likelyhood, an absolute fact and not just some SRM material.

This is the reason for testing a live animal or herd and keeping records to help in putting BSE away forever.
 

bse-tester

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RKaiser wrote:
Your story would lead us all to beleive that we found the only cows in Canada to have BSE. Have you any clue as to the numbers in our survailance system? If your story about infection is true, the whole word will succomb to BSE over time. Give me a break.




Give your head a shake Randy. The facts are out there and I am not telling a "story," for the sake of telling anything. The UK is already on alert for what is surely going to occur there. As for finding all the cattle in Canada with BSE, you may be interested in knowing the Dr. Bob Church told a group of scientists in Edmonton, (I sat across from him at the table) two years ago that prior to the feed ban, the Federal Government was investigating in excess of 1000 possible cases of BSE. Back then, it did not appear to be much of an issue I guess. But is sure as hell is a fact of life now. As for my "story" leading anyone to believe that we have found all the cows in Canada with BSE, I do not see where that is even implied let alone stated!! I am of the firm belief that there are many animals that are carrying BSE and not showing signs of it and also that many others have already been processed for human consumption. But then that is just my opinion.
 

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bse tester - "....you may be interested in knowing the Dr. Bob Church told a group of scientists in Edmonton, (I sat across from him at the table) two years ago that prior to the feed ban, the Federal Government was investigating in excess of 1000 possible cases of BSE..."


Hey bse tester!! Would this be the same Dr. Bob Church?(or is there more than one??) :D

Just curious!!!! :lol: :lol: :p

The article below is from www.beefnews.com/displayarticle/?sel_record=1312




Dr. Bob Church: "Our Beef Is Safe" by Lee Gunderson
March, 2004

Dr. Bob Church Background:

Bob Church has a Ph.D. in Animal Genetics from the University of Edinburgh; he's a member of Alberta Order of Excellence; Order of Canada; Church is also Chair of the Alberta Science and Research Authority. He's a native Albertan; a cattleman (Lochend Luing); advisor to governments and politicians; and Professor Emeritus and founding Head of the Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology of the University of Calgary Faculty of Medicine. Among many other endeavors he advises Time Magazine with regard to scientific articles. He has been deeply engaged with the SARS and West Nile Virus epidemics in Canada. This list of his accomplishments is, however, brief; for instance he is a Past President of the Calgary Exhibition & Stampede and his list of service on various boards could fill pages.

With regard to BSE in North America, in his own way, in a very low key and unobtrusive manner, Dr. Bob Church has been doing his part consulting with all segments of the livestock industry in order to illuminate the mystery and alleviate the malaise and misinformation that has swept North America since May 20, 2003. He seeks truth in all things with his quiet, logical, scientific mind and seeks to point those misinformed in the direction of understanding, as much as any good Professor would. Much of his work has been with media helping writers understand the nuances of BSE and prion science so that informed articles could help belay the public misperceptions regarding current BSE theories. Highlights of this article include: *There is no conclusive scientific evidence tying BSE to nvCJD in the UK.

*The UK BSE experience is unique to the UK, that scenario is unlikely to repeat itself in Canada.

*We need flexible regulations, enforcement and policies.

*Our new testing programs insure our beef is safe.

*Our first and second cases of BSE were probably spontaneous

*OIE rules are informed by outdated science from the 1990's and do not reflect current BSE research.

*A global scientific search in on to unravel the mystery of BSE and transmissible spongiform encephalopathies.

*BSE should not be ranked with other infectious diseases that annually kill thousands in Canada.

*Misinformed media frenzy was responsible for much public fear over BSE.

*Our U.S. border is closed to live exports as a result of politics, not science.

*Cattlemen must use new tools like CAIS to manage risk and incomes until border harmonization occurs.

With regard to Mark Purdey's theories regarding the role of copper and manganese in forming abnormal prions (Mark is from England and was featured in Alberta Beef Magazine's Sept. 03 cover story) Dr. Church observes, "Mark was a lecturer at Harvard. He is deserving of more credit than people give him. Let's put BSE into an historical perspective. During the '60's and '70's the first systemic insecticides were licensed for liver flukes and warbles in the United Kingdom, yet at levels about three times higher than any other country. In Canada the closest organo-phosphate (OP) insecticide we had was Neguvon which caused severe neurological problems in humans who had contact with it. OP's can complex with copper and manganese. Purdey believes the abnormal form of prions associated with BSE in the United Kingdom are derived from the use of the OPs.

In 1986 the first BSE outbreak was detected in Britain. Initial recommendations to the British Ministry of Agriculture were not heeded: remove Scrapie sheep and BSE infected cattle from the animal protein rendering system and remove animal protein from calf feed and the milk replacer used in dairy operations. The British Ministry of Agriculture ignored all recommendations. British BSE numbers kept going up. It was later found that the abnormal prion complex survived the rendering process."

"In the late '80's and early '90's scientists and regulators responded in a responsible manner to well-founded fears of a major human health threat. The observations were: in addition to Scrapie in sheep, there was a rapid increase in the number of BSE cases in cattle AND the detection of a new form of Creutzfeld-Jakob Disease in humans. The 'hypothesis' was that the spongiform-encephalopathy (SE) had somehow crossed species from sheep (Scrapie) to cattle (BSE) and to humans (nvCJD). The condemned Scrapie sheep and BSE cattle were rendered and went into the animal protein used in animal feeds and milk replacer. The theory predicted that unless drastic measures were taken there would be thousands of humans in danger of getting new variant CJD!

Therefore, all cattle more than 30 months of age were incinerated to prevent the risk to human health. Scientists and regulators became fixated on establishing the "infectious prion" agent causing BSE! Many scientific articles stated that "prion related disease" was capable of crossing species barriers, OIE set up international regulations in the mid 1990's based on this hypothesis."

"A mandated reportable registry of nvCJD patients in the UK has analyzed more than 140 cases. All have a human genetic predisposition; some are confirmed vegetarians; and the number has not increased as expected. Extensive analysis of the many normal prion types show these atypical prions to be species specific. There is no evidence of abnormal folded prions from Scrapie sheep found in cattle with BSE; nor have humans with nvCJD been found to have abnormally folded BSE prions (specific to cattle). However, animal protein from BSE infected cattle can contain the heat resistant folded prions which can be transferred in feed - notably in milk replacers. The thousands of BSE infected cattle in the UK probably were infected by the presence of BSE prions in the animal protein fed to pail-bunter calves. More than 95% of the UK beef is from dairy herds where calves suck (to get colostrum) and are put on milk replacers before the gut closes off to proteins, as does the blood-brain barrier. Cattlemen know that a calf must suck before the gut wall matures (12-50 hours) or the calf will not get the passive immunity from their dam. If anyone wanted to spread BSE and then almost eliminate it... the UK experience is the perfect model of how to do that. Positive BSE cases peaked in 1992-1993 at almost 40,000 head. The peak for calves born (later to have BSE) was in 1987. "Infected" animal protein was banned from feeds in 1988 in the U.K.."

"Those who look into this further should read George A. Ventner's article in the British Medical Journal Vol. 323, Oct. 13 pp.858-861, 'New Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: the epidemic that never was'. They will find the causal link between BSE and nvCJD has not been proven; there is a weak case suggesting this link; rate of growth in the number of nvCJD cases is less than to be expected from a food born (meat) source; the rate of growth of nvCJD is consistent with some previously mis diagnosed but rare disease (one in a million) being found. In other words there seems to be no plausible, statistically significant link between BSE and nvCJD. It is unlikely that a large wave of cases is imminent in the human population in Europe or the United Kingdom."

"It seems that UK government regulators were crisis driven in this situation. Of the 164 or so nations that signed onto the OIE accord only about 10 countries are really informed and understand the science regarding the protocols. We're in a situation here in Canada that reflects this 1990's British style of precautionary thinking that is not biologically or scientifically sound in 2004 (it does not reflect current science.) Our reaction to BSE was influenced by the British containment exercise of the 1990's. We implemented what was, I believe, a crisis driven response in order to protect humans and engender consumer confidence. BSE is not a critical infectious disease. In Canada we are way ahead of the game internationally with our new CFIA mandated specified risk material (SRM) procedures. These new procedures for slaughter indicate removal of those tissues in which folded prions have been previously detected; these tissues are removed from the carcass after slaughter so they do not enter the food system. These new SRM procedures eliminate tissues that may pose any form of risk and combine with new CCIA tracking procedures which are not as encumbering as the British passport system (a system which sees all cattle more than 30 months of age incinerated). The Draconian UK overreaction to BSE was the result of a loss of confidence in the early British Government's inability to act on initial scientific recommendations."

"We're now in a situation where some scientists want to market their respective BSE tests and profit from their technology. At this point in time there is no quick blood test for BSE. There is only one test that is absolute for BSE and that is brain tissue analysis done post mortem: this immuno-histological test will yield the final absolute results. BSE tests fall into three tiers: 1: a blood or urine abnormal prion test is a screening test; it detects protease resistant prions in blood or urine but doesn't tell where the prions came from. This test is cheap (about $20 US) it can instill consumer confidence but is not precise (Japan uses this test). 2: There are three relatively fast prion tests done postmortems that indicate the presence of abnormal prions after protease digestion and immuno-absorption (about $150.) If positive, a third test is needed on the brain tissue for confirmation of BSE. 3: The final confirming test is a post mortem immun./histological test (about $200US ); it takes time and is very precise. The world reference lab for this test is in the United Kingdom. The bottom line is that the more testing that is done the more cases are liable to be identified."

"We have to remember that what happened to Britain with BSE was a unique situation unlikely to happen anywhere else. The British Government lost the trust of the public over its initial handling of BSE. They failed to heed the critical recommendations given to them in 1986. That caused all the over-regulation and overreaction in England. Regulations developed during crisis are hard for the British to change today. The regulations we abide by are in many ways in need of reform and are the largest threat to Canadian beef production: we need flexible regulations, enforcement and policies in light of the new science that is being discovered. It is my belief that our first and second cases of BSE were probably spontaneous or there is a remote chance they were induced by contaminated feed. Disposing of herds was needless but it instilled public confidence in the beef supply. Today with our new CFA supervised SRM procedures which remove suspect tissue from the food chain; herd trace-back mechanisms instituted by CCIA; and our new CFIA managed testing programs; we are insuring the safety of our beef supply to consumers."

"The role of prions in all species is now being investigated around the world as a result of the BSE and nvCJD publicity. Finally, questions are being asked like the role of genetic variation in a predisposition to BSE, which could be tested for; finding an infectious agent like spiroplasma associated with folded prions which could be treated; and determine if the prion-CU++ complex is the 'magnetic tape' of immune and neural memory which can be disturbed; determine if the abnormal folded prions are the cause or effect in dementia in all species; or, are combinations of genetic, environmental and infectious agents involved in conditions like BSE?"

Dr. Church cites the work of Dr. Frank Bastian of Tulane's University School of Medicine. Bastian first identified spiroplasma in brain tissue of CJD victims in 1976. "There is almost no reason to rank BSE with other contagious infectious diseases affecting human beings: diseases like SARS; West Nile; viral infections or regular flu kill thousands in Canada annually. For instance, in most cases the media over reacted to a problem which they hardly understood. I would rank influenza or car accidents on a scale of 1-10 as tens for the likelihood of one dying from them. SARS or West Nile Virus would be scored at about a five. But the likelihood of dying from nvCJD from eating lean Canadian beef would be .000001 or near zero risk. Your chances of choking to death from improperly chewing food exceed this level of risk. Couple that with the media frenzy that developed, much of this media panic was uninformed and utilized British film archives from the 1980's and 1990's; it compounded public reaction to the two cases detected so far in Canada."

"The most positive thing I see in the beef industry is a "common round table" approach to the situation. Minister Shirley McClellan has been a leader Albertans can be proud of. She has been backed by the Premier and a dedicated staff under Deputy Minister Manning. We are also seeing a big change in the federal scene as Prime Minister Martin; Deputy Prime Minister McLellan and Minister Speller have raised our profile with the United States and Asian countries with regard to BSE and trade in beef."

"I really have no idea how long it will take to open our border to live exports. Our auto and energy industries are integrated as is our cattle industry. The science we now know about BSE indicates our beef is safe given the precautions we have in place; the decision to close borders is political . . . not based on logic or sound science. R-CALF has tremendous clout in Washington.

Compounding this is the fact that our major American owned beef processors/distributors/retailers have little regard for the economic welfare of our livestock producers or feeders. My advice to cattlemen at all levels of beef production in Canada is to seek to control costs and inputs as best they can during the coming months. Try and ride out this period of negative price fluctuation by hedging and marketing as best they can. Harmonization must and will occur but it may take a bit longer than we want it to. Cattlemen will have to uses risk management tools like CAIS to protect themselves from financial disasters and Canada will need to ensure there are global trading safety nets ready for the next event!"
 

Twotimer

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bse-tester said:
RKaiser wrote:
Your story would lead us all to beleive that we found the only cows in Canada to have BSE. Have you any clue as to the numbers in our survailance system? If your story about infection is true, the whole word will succomb to BSE over time. Give me a break.




Give your head a shake Randy. The facts are out there and I am not telling a "story," for the sake of telling anything. The UK is already on alert for what is surely going to occur there. As for finding all the cattle in Canada with BSE, you may be interested in knowing the Dr. Bob Church told a group of scientists in Edmonton, (I sat across from him at the table) two years ago that prior to the feed ban, the Federal Government was investigating in excess of 1000 possible cases of BSE. Back then, it did not appear to be much of an issue I guess. But is sure as hell is a fact of life now. As for my "story" leading anyone to believe that we have found all the cows in Canada with BSE, I do not see where that is even implied let alone stated!! I am of the firm belief that there are many animals that are carrying BSE and not showing signs of it and also that many others have already been processed for human consumption. But then that is just my opinion.

And we are very lucky that few people actually are susceptible to vCJD it appears or it takes decades to develop and the UK and Europe will have a shock in about 15 years. No reason for the US and Canada to rush in where the UK and Europe has been and wishes to h**l they hadn't.
 

Bill

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Twotimer said:
bse-tester said:
RKaiser wrote:
Your story would lead us all to beleive that we found the only cows in Canada to have BSE. Have you any clue as to the numbers in our survailance system? If your story about infection is true, the whole word will succomb to BSE over time. Give me a break.




Give your head a shake Randy. The facts are out there and I am not telling a "story," for the sake of telling anything. The UK is already on alert for what is surely going to occur there. As for finding all the cattle in Canada with BSE, you may be interested in knowing the Dr. Bob Church told a group of scientists in Edmonton, (I sat across from him at the table) two years ago that prior to the feed ban, the Federal Government was investigating in excess of 1000 possible cases of BSE. Back then, it did not appear to be much of an issue I guess. But is sure as hell is a fact of life now. As for my "story" leading anyone to believe that we have found all the cows in Canada with BSE, I do not see where that is even implied let alone stated!! I am of the firm belief that there are many animals that are carrying BSE and not showing signs of it and also that many others have already been processed for human consumption. But then that is just my opinion.

And we are very lucky that few people actually are susceptible to vCJD it appears or it takes decades to develop and the UK and Europe will have a shock in about 15 years. No reason for the US and Canada to rush in where the UK and Europe has been and wishes to h**l they hadn't.
How do you explain that in the UK the number of cases of vCJD is decreasing? :roll:
 

Twotimer

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Bill said:
Twotimer said:
bse-tester said:
RKaiser wrote:
Your story would lead us all to beleive that we found the only cows in Canada to have BSE. Have you any clue as to the numbers in our survailance system? If your story about infection is true, the whole word will succomb to BSE over time. Give me a break.




Give your head a shake Randy. The facts are out there and I am not telling a "story," for the sake of telling anything. The UK is already on alert for what is surely going to occur there. As for finding all the cattle in Canada with BSE, you may be interested in knowing the Dr. Bob Church told a group of scientists in Edmonton, (I sat across from him at the table) two years ago that prior to the feed ban, the Federal Government was investigating in excess of 1000 possible cases of BSE. Back then, it did not appear to be much of an issue I guess. But is sure as hell is a fact of life now. As for my "story" leading anyone to believe that we have found all the cows in Canada with BSE, I do not see where that is even implied let alone stated!! I am of the firm belief that there are many animals that are carrying BSE and not showing signs of it and also that many others have already been processed for human consumption. But then that is just my opinion.

And we are very lucky that few people actually are susceptible to vCJD it appears or it takes decades to develop and the UK and Europe will have a shock in about 15 years. No reason for the US and Canada to rush in where the UK and Europe has been and wishes to h**l they hadn't.
How do you explain that in the UK the number of cases of vCJD is decreasing? :roll:
Actually 2004 saw a slight increase in vCJD onsets from 2003... A couple of years in the life of a mysterious disease is not a full picture my friend.
 

bse-tester

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As for the declining numbers of vCJD in the UK, you will have to do better than that Bill. The numbers are in fact on hold - they have stabilised according to MAFF and the CJD Foundation in the UK. There is also an anticipation of an increase of the like that has never been seen before and the general thinking is that this will hit within the next 15 - 40 years. Due to the lengthy incubation period of the disease.
 

Twotimer

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The man in charge of UK surveillance, Dr. Robert Will, briefed one month ago that 2004 had seen a slight increase in vCJD onsets from 2003. So it's not clear it's "on the decline" unless you wish to claim you know more that the scientist in charge of surveillance in the country that knows the most about vCJD.
 

bse-tester

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The man in charge of UK surveillance, Dr. Robert Will, briefed one month ago that 2004 had seen a slight increase in vCJD onsets from 2003. So it's not clear it's "on the decline" unless you wish to claim you know more that the scientist in charge of surveillance in the country that knows the most about vCJD.
I take it that you are putting this reply to Bill and not to me Twotimer??
 

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