• If you are having problems logging in please use the Contact Us in the lower right hand corner of the forum page for assistance.

Thursday markets close higher, despite BSE news

Help Support Ranchers.net:

HAY MAKER

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 13, 2005
Messages
8,789
Reaction score
0
Location
Texas
July 29, 2005
Thursday markets close higher, despite BSE news

“Ho-hum” is the way cattle markets greeted Wednesday afternoon’s news that the U.S. may have another case of BSE. Live cattle futures Thursday finished higher than they have in weeks.

By day’s end, August CME live cattle futures rallied 22 points, to 79.57 cents/pound. October was up 67 points, to 82.05 cents/pound, and August feeder cattle futures gained 45 points, to 107.57 cents. That’s the highest October close since July 13, and the highest August close since July 7.

Bryan Doherty, senior market advisor for Stewart Peterson Group, Inc., said, “I get the feeling that traders care more than the public. The public is growing tired of hearing about these issues which, in the long run, seem to have no or little impact on consumer safety or demand. In fact, contrary opinion would suggest that meat is safer than ever to eat, and that the system’s working.”I contribute alot of this consumer confidence to R CALF,for their fact finding,straight shooting style of reporting.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
I guess we can thank USDA and NCBA for getting the truth about BSE to the media before R-CULT could spread their BSE fear mongering and take the markets into the tank.



~SH~
 

rancher

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,059
Reaction score
0
Last I heard from the buyers is we already lost $50 a head from the border opening. Sure hope it rebounds before I sell, some in the area got sold before the opening. Feeders said packers are going to hold out for the Canadian cattle as long as possible, rumor, I don't know, fact, kind of believe it.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
18,486
Reaction score
0
Location
Nebraska
~SH~ said:
I guess we can thank USDA and NCBA for getting the truth about BSE to the media before R-CULT could spread their BSE fear mongering and take the markets into the tank.



~SH~

But you said the media does't take R-CALF to be a credible source. How could they "take the markets into the tank" if they have no credibility?
 

HAY MAKER

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 13, 2005
Messages
8,789
Reaction score
0
Location
Texas
rancher said:
Last I heard from the buyers is we already lost $50 a head from the border opening. Sure hope it rebounds before I sell, some in the area got sold before the opening. Feeders said packers are going to hold out for the Canadian cattle as long as possible, rumor, I don't know, fact, kind of believe it.

Typical packer games,hint that the border is opening ,and prices fall ,IM hoping we get thru the fall run before they can start controlling the markets again.............good luck PS are you done haying?
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Sandman: "But you said the media does't take R-CALF to be a credible source. How could they "take the markets into the tank" if they have no credibility?"

I said "IF" R-CULT had credibility with the media our markets would have ended up in the tank.

HEADLINES: R-CULT POSITION UPHELD BY 9TH CIRCUIT. U.S. BEEF "HIGH RISK" DUE TO "MAD COW" IN U.S. NATIVE HERD!

You're not smart enough to figure that out are you?

R-CULT'S use of the term "MAD COW" vs. BSE proves that the end justfies the means. I suppose you blindly support that too huh?



~SH~
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
18,486
Reaction score
0
Location
Nebraska
~SH~ said:
Sandman: "But you said the media does't take R-CALF to be a credible source. How could they "take the markets into the tank" if they have no credibility?"

I said "IF" R-CULT had credibility with the media our markets would have ended up in the tank.

HEADLINES: R-CULT POSITION UPHELD BY 9TH CIRCUIT. U.S. BEEF "HIGH RISK" DUE TO "MAD COW" IN U.S. NATIVE HERD!

You're not smart enough to figure that out are you?

R-CULT'S use of the term "MAD COW" vs. BSE proves that the end justfies the means. I suppose you blindly support that too huh?



~SH~

You don't even now what you said! :lol: :lol:

Let me post it again, "I guess we can thank USDA and NCBA for getting the truth about BSE to the media before R-CULT could spread their BSE fear mongering and take the markets into the tank."

Where is the word "if"? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Do you want me to bring up a quote from you that clearly states your opinion that R-CALF has no credibility? (and again, no "if")
 

Kato

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
2,679
Reaction score
0
Location
Manitoba - At the end of the road
Rancher: Last I heard from the buyers is we already lost $50 a head from the border opening. Sure hope it rebounds before I sell, some in the area got sold before the opening. Feeders said packers are going to hold out for the Canadian cattle as long as possible, rumor, I don't know, fact, kind of believe it.


Rancher, it's interesting that you say the buyers say they've lost $50 dollars from the border opening. I had an offer for a few fats this week to go to the States, and it was 4 cents lower than similar cattle at the auction mart.

How come yours went down, and ours didn't go up? If they are holding out for Canadian cattle, they sure aren't planning on paying for them.

Something's not right here. :?

BTW, we didn't sell the steers. 8)
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Kato said:
Rancher: Last I heard from the buyers is we already lost $50 a head from the border opening. Sure hope it rebounds before I sell, some in the area got sold before the opening. Feeders said packers are going to hold out for the Canadian cattle as long as possible, rumor, I don't know, fact, kind of believe it.


Rancher, it's interesting that you say the buyers say they've lost $50 dollars from the border opening. I had an offer for a few fats this week to go to the States, and it was 4 cents lower than similar cattle at the auction mart.

How come yours went down, and ours didn't go up? If they are holding out for Canadian cattle, they sure aren't planning on paying for them.

Something's not right here. :?

BTW, we didn't sell the steers. 8)

Kato- they have more to play with now to bring the price down- more supply to play with and as long as they can get them cheaper they will--- I know you don't think your $200 holdback payment was a subsidy--- BUT the packers know that there are many cattle up there that were sold for $200 cheaper than the "Canadian" price- they know that the feeder and/or producer has already been paid $200 for them from the government so they can offer much less and still make many Canadians happier than a pig at the trough... The packers will use you Canadians like they have for years until they can get the price for everyone down where they want it for their profits....

Remember- I predicted many months ago that the packers would use these government payments as a way to lower prices if the border opened and that it would be challenged as a SUBSIDY- look back thru the archives.........

And if you go back thru the archives you will find that my old cow buyer friend had predicted cull cows in the states were at their lowest in about June, unless the border opened, no matter if it was to OTM or not... They have that much more "cheap" scrap available..- Border opened and culls are down $10....

I have always wondered which Packer designed your $200 holdback payment for your government :???: Guess who will come out making anything on it? :mad: :cry:
 

Kato

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
2,679
Reaction score
0
Location
Manitoba - At the end of the road
I don't know of any cattle sold for $200 cheaper than the Canadian price. They only released them for sale last week, and the set aside was so long ago that the money is long gone on interest payments and such. It's history in our minds. A done deal. It won't influence us to sell cheap just because we got a cheque months ago.

I think they are playing games to see if we'll take lower money. The fact is that the packers haven't realized yet how the last two years have affected us. We've learned patience. We've had to. We've gotten just a little brighter too. 8) They may be thinking that there are a bunch of desperate easy marks up here just jumping to dump cattle, when actually there are a bunch of jaded cynics who are not so easily fooled. We know that there are not a bunch of extra fats here. We know that beef consumption is not dropping. We know that we have faced the worst and survived. We know that we have lots of feed this year, and don't have to panic and dump cattle.

We know what they should be worth, and will wait and see if things improve. Panic we will not. Those who are worried that Canadians are going to dump everything and drive down prices don't need to lose any sleep over it. We haven't come this far just to give them away at a loss now.

Who knows how it will shake out in the long run, but from what I have been seeing this week, most of the cattle crossing the border are American owned cattle that were stranded up here in the spring.

There's going to be a lot of mind games played in the next few weeks to set a new market level on both sides of the border. As long as no one gets stupid and starts a panic things should calm down and the prices should stabilize.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Sandman: "Let me post it again, "I guess we can thank USDA and NCBA for getting the truth about BSE to the media before R-CULT could spread their BSE fear mongering and take the markets into the tank."

Sandman: "Where is the word "if"?

Sandman: "Do you want me to bring up a quote from you that clearly states your opinion that R-CALF has no credibility? (and again, no "if")"


My statements are very clear. The NCBA and USDA got the truth to the media before R-CULT could lie to them. If that was not the case, our markets would be in the tank because R-CULT's position was, if you have BSE in your native herd, your beef is "high risk" and "contaminated".

Dance all you want Sandman but my statements are clear.


OT: "Kato- they have more to play with now to bring the price down- more supply to play with and as long as they can get them cheaper they will--- I know you don't think your $200 holdback payment was a subsidy--- BUT the packers know that there are many cattle up there that were sold for $200 cheaper than the "Canadian" price- they know that the feeder and/or producer has already been paid $200 for them from the government so they can offer much less and still make many Canadians happier than a pig at the trough... The packers will use you Canadians like they have for years until they can get the price for everyone down where they want it for their profits.... "


It never ceases to amaze me what packer blamers like OT can come up with in their conspiring minds.

In a normal supply and demand situation (where cattle numbers equal slaughter capacity), if the prices packers paid for cattle were not driven by their margins and the price of beef and beef by products and if they could truly control the markets, the prices they paid to cattlemen WOULD NEVER MOVE!

Either they can control the price they pay for fat cattle or they can't.

When Canadian cattle numbers exceeded the slaughtering capacity they had leverage on the price they paid but not under normal slaughter capacity situations. To believe that packers could control prices now is to believe that Cargill and Tyson are not in competition. Try selling that idea to their stockholders.

OT, like always, you are so full of it!


OT: "And if you go back thru the archives you will find that my old cow buyer friend had predicted cull cows in the states were at their lowest in about June, unless the border opened, no matter if it was to OTM or not... They have that much more "cheap" scrap available..- Border opened and culls are down $10...."

Perhaps you need to be reminded of what Dennis McDonald said to the ND producers. He said if we had a native case of BSE in the U.S. we may need to consider not slaughtering cull cows.

What would your cull cows be worth if you took Dennis McDonald's advice?



Answer this question OT,

Is the Canadian border the only factor playing on the markets?

YES OR NO?



~SH~
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Answer this question OT,

Is the Canadian border the only factor playing on the markets?

YES OR NO?

NO- But it is the biggest factor right now....
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Well if the Canadian border is not the only factor playing on the market how can you attribute the Canadian border opening to cull cows dropping $10?

You can't!

You are wrong about the Canadian border being the biggest factor also.

Declining retail beef prices is the biggest factor.

Nice job blowing your foot off lawman!



~SH~
 

PORKER

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2005
Messages
4,170
Reaction score
0
Location
Michigan-Florida
Perhaps you need to be reminded of what Dennis McDonald said to the ND producers. He said if we had a native case of BSE in the U.S. we may need to consider not slaughtering cull cows.

What would your cull cows be worth if you took Dennis McDonald's advice?
Answer----Nothing ,unless they were BSE TESTED.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
I am not aware that Dennis McDonald mentioned anything about BSE testing as an option when he made his statement regarding cull cows.

Either way, 100% testing of slaughter cows is not justifiable.

If it was justifiable based on an increase in BSE in the U.S., it would be an option to consider on cows born after the feed ban phase out period.



~SH~
 

agman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,664
Reaction score
0
Location
Denver, CO
Oldtimer said:
Answer this question OT,

Is the Canadian border the only factor playing on the markets?

YES OR NO?

NO- But it is the biggest factor right now....

OT, you are one person who can ignore the facts and make excuses better than anyone I have ever come across. Is it possible in your mind to comprehend that the decline in U.S. fed cattle prices from $94 to $79 and a decline in beef cutout values from $165 to $124 is a larger factor influencing the price of feeders and calves than the reopening of the Candian border? Remember that the decline in the domestic prices occurred BEFORE the border opended.
 

agman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,664
Reaction score
0
Location
Denver, CO
Kato said:
I don't know of any cattle sold for $200 cheaper than the Canadian price. They only released them for sale last week, and the set aside was so long ago that the money is long gone on interest payments and such. It's history in our minds. A done deal. It won't influence us to sell cheap just because we got a cheque months ago.

I think they are playing games to see if we'll take lower money. The fact is that the packers haven't realized yet how the last two years have affected us. We've learned patience. We've had to. We've gotten just a little brighter too. 8) They may be thinking that there are a bunch of desperate easy marks up here just jumping to dump cattle, when actually there are a bunch of jaded cynics who are not so easily fooled. We know that there are not a bunch of extra fats here. We know that beef consumption is not dropping. We know that we have faced the worst and survived. We know that we have lots of feed this year, and don't have to panic and dump cattle.

We know what they should be worth, and will wait and see if things improve. Panic we will not. Those who are worried that Canadians are going to dump everything and drive down prices don't need to lose any sleep over it. We haven't come this far just to give them away at a loss now.

Who knows how it will shake out in the long run, but from what I have been seeing this week, most of the cattle crossing the border are American owned cattle that were stranded up here in the spring.

There's going to be a lot of mind games played in the next few weeks to set a new market level on both sides of the border. As long as no one gets stupid and starts a panic things should calm down and the prices should stabilize.

Correct me if I am wrong but I remember prices advacing after that set-aside. Per OT they should have declined by $16/cwt.
 

Latest posts

Top