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Twister

Bill

Well-known member
Twister
Colorado Springs, CO May 11, 2006

I’ve often said R-CALF people are not chess players -- they either can’t or won’t see what happens two or three moves down the line from their ranch gate. But if chess isn’t their favorite game, I think I have figured out what is: Twister the parlor game where everyone twists themselves into knots. The twists and turns their tortured imaginations make in trying to explain their conspiracy theories could only be appreciated by a contortionist -- or a Twister fan.

Their latest theory has to do with the real reason the Japanese market was re-closed to American beef, and why fed cattle prices are down.

Chuck Kiker, R-CALF’s president, recently gave a sarcastic summary of the events leading up to the re- closing of the Japanese market.

“What a coincidence, a box labeled bone-in veal loins makes it all the way to Japan” ... “the company said they didn’t realize” ... “It’s only been publicized in every trade publication” ... “Who would have ever thought a USDA trained inspector would miss boxes with ‘bone-in beef’ written on the side” and “These coincidental events...” he recounted. These phrases all show the tone of the R-CALF president’s opinion of events leading to the re-closing. Kiker strongly hints he finds it hard to believe all these events were unhappy accidents.

Why? Kiker claims the big three packers could care less. They have other ways of profiting from the seemingly unfortunate situation. He notes that Tyson and Excel subsidiaries can export beef to Japan from Canada. (Of course, one reason they can is because there is no R-CALF in Canada ... but that’s another story.) Swift can export beef to Japan from Australian subsidiaries. Excel can export to Japan from South America, he said.

“These coincidental events have resulted in the packers being able to take advantage of imported supplies of foreign [sic] cattle and beef and leverage down U.S. cattle prices,” Kiker claims. “The big three still have the Japanese market and they broke back the U.S. market ... When Japan shut-off [sic] U.S. exports, the fat cattle market started an unprecedented slide downward and it hasn’t stopped.”

Well, as we said in our previous Sentinel, regarding the same column by Kiker in the Southeast Texas Independent Cattlemen’s Association newsletter, demagogues don’t let data get in their way.

Let’s look at the data, as of late April:

Cattle-Fax said the last data available shows Canadian packers have shipped a whopping 80,000 lbs. of beef to Japan this year, i.e. a trailer load or so. Do you think that fixed all the packer’s hurts?
Beef from South America and most of the beef from Australia is not high quality fed beef that substitutes well for American grain-fed beef. Ask the Japanese beef bowl chains that struggled mightily without their supply of U.S. beef. It’s not a major factor.
As for bringing in Canadian beef to break our market, so far this year, imports of Canadian beef were down 10-15 percent from last year’s trend. Cattle-Fax has adjusted their estimate for the year down to 900 million lbs. That’s about three percent of 27 billion lbs. of total U.S. production. This is gross, not net. We export beef to Canada, although not as much now because of their increased packing capacity. Again, facts not there.
Imports of Canadian fed cattle to break the market: Didn’t happen in ’05 (280,000 head or so -- a few days’ supply). Projection for ’06 -- 750,000 head (a little over a week’s worth and no data so far to change that estimate). At this point in time, numbers are in line with the ‘98-’03 average of 723,000. Now Canadian packers have enough capacity to slaughter most of their fed needs plus cows, too. Again, facts lacking.
As for BSE and the loss of the Japanese market triggering the U.S. fed market slide, fed prices set records in 2003, shrugged off BSE, and then set more new records in 2004 and yet again in 2005. It was not until mid-February of 2006, over two years after Kiker claims, that cattle prices began trending downward. Where does he get his data?


So let’s review R-CALF’s latest conspiracy theory: They suggest the faulty beef shipment might not have been accidental. They think U.S. packers are breaking the U.S. market with floods of imported Canadian cattle and beef, and are making big profits by shipping beef into Japan from Canada.

The facts aren’t there. The packers are not coining money over BSE.

As we said, Twister is R-CALF’s game.

Click here to see the first page of the Southeast Texas ICA newsletter. This is to ID the document.
http://www.agribusinessfreedom.org/email/KikerSETXNews01.jpg

Click here to see the parts of Kiker's column referenced. Emphasis marks are mine.
http://www.agribusinessfreedom.org/email/KikerSETXNews02.jpg

Next time: Kiker accuses packers of using Canadian cattle to break the market.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
And another "release" from the one-man, one-topic "foundation". Cue the circus music........ :roll:

Next week: R-CALF repsonsible for global warming and the genocide in Rwanda.........
 

Bill

Well-known member
Econ101 said:
Bill, how much Canadian beef is going to Japan and countries that the U.S. can not export to?
Not enough and I am starting to believe that despite Canadian efforts we will be held back by the US not taking an agressive approach on things such as MID. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Bill said:
Econ101 said:
Bill, how much Canadian beef is going to Japan and countries that the U.S. can not export to?
Not enough and I am starting to believe that despite Canadian efforts we will be held back by the US not taking an agressive approach on things such as MID. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link.

Why don't you guys wean yourselves off of us and do your own thing?
 

HAY MAKER

Well-known member
Bill, do mean to tell me this is what you been crowing about ?Canadian packers have shipped a whopping 80,000 lbs. of beef to Japan this year...............taking about an illusion,gimme a break you ole packer lover..............good luck
 

Bill

Well-known member
Thanks guys for once again showing us that Dittmer is right on the money with his thoughts on R-Calf. :lol: :lol:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Chuck Kiker, R-CALF’s president, recently gave a sarcastic summary of the events leading up to the re- closing of the Japanese market.

“What a coincidence, a box labeled bone-in veal loins makes it all the way to Japan” ... “the company said they didn’t realize” ... “It’s only been publicized in every trade publication” ... “Who would have ever thought a USDA trained inspector would miss boxes with ‘bone-in beef’ written on the side” and “These coincidental events...” he recounted. These phrases all show the tone of the R-CALF president’s opinion of events leading to the re-closing. Kiker strongly hints he finds it hard to believe all these events were unhappy accidents.

Why? Kiker claims the big three packers could care less. They have other ways of profiting from the seemingly unfortunate situation. He notes that Tyson and Excel subsidiaries can export beef to Japan from Canada. (Of course, one reason they can is because there is no R-CALF in Canada ... but that’s another story.) Swift can export beef to Japan from Australian subsidiaries. Excel can export to Japan from South America, he said.

“These coincidental events have resulted in the packers being able to take advantage of imported supplies of foreign [sic] cattle and beef and leverage down U.S. cattle prices,” Kiker claims. “The big three still have the Japanese market and they broke back the U.S. market ... When Japan shut-off [sic] U.S. exports, the fat cattle market started an unprecedented slide downward and it hasn’t stopped.”

Bill- Dittmer needs to get out in the real world a little more- because about 1/2 the cattle producers in the US were asking the same question...

Its either believe that or that USDA is the most incompetent bunch of idiots around...

One theory is as good as the other....
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
It's Dittmer...DDDDDDDDDDDDUUUUUUUUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

April 16, 2006

Beef exports to Japan a fraction of pre-BSE levels

By JUDY MONCHUK

CALGARY (CP) - A hesitation to buy into a birth registry for cattle has turned into a lost opportunity for producers who previously viewed Japan as a savior for beef exports.

More than three months after Japan lifted a ban on North American beef, Canada is shipping only a fraction of what it did prior to the discovery of mad cow disease in 2003.

"I wouldn't say we've blown it, but definitely we're not able to meet the demand," said Ted Haney of the Canada Beef Export Federation.

Haney said the Japanese would happily take Canadian beef from animals proven to be under 21 months of age, but not enough animals with documents proving their youth are being brought to market.

"It's obvious that the Canadian industry is finding it difficult to identify those animals in commercially significant volumes," said Haney.

About 20 tonnes of beef a week is being sent to Japan from the youngest animals, believed at lowest risk of developing bovine spongiform encephalopathy, the clinical term for mad cow.


Prior to the discovery of BSE in 2003, Canada was exporting 500 tonnes of meat to the Asian country. Meat packers would love to have more animals arrive for slaughter with birth certificates in tow, but that's not happening.

Canadian beef producers had hoped the booming economies of Pacific Rim countries would feed the long-term recovery of an industry which lost billions in exports when international markets slammed shut.

About 1.9 million animals have been voluntarily registered in the Canadian Cattle Identification Agency's federal database. But there is a long way to go.

About five million calves were born last spring and another six million calves are expected to be born over the next couple of months, animals which could be moving to market as early as the fall.

In Alberta, home to the bulk of Canada's beef herd, the provincial government has launched an advertising campaign to stress that having the birth dates of cattle easily accessible gives ranchers an advantage in the global marketplace.

"We're telling ranchers the world wants Canadian beef at their dinner table," said Alberta Agriculture Minister Doug Horner. "But they're demanding proof that the beef on their plates is from younger animals."

Alberta urges producers to voluntarily sign up their animals before registration becomes mandatory by April 2007. At that point, all animals slaughtered here will have to have proof of a birthday.


Feedlot operator Rick Paskal is frustrated with the number of producers who have been slow to buy in to the free online registration program. He suggests that Ottawa take some of the money it has set aside for export development to help the battered industry and offer cow-calf producers a one-time payment for registering their young animals, perhaps $5 a head.

"It's a no-brainer to me, it's something that has to be done," Paskal said from Lethbridge, Alta. "It's going to be our lifeline in years to come, this simple tool that we have in front of us, but we have to get everybody to do it."


Auctioneer Blair Vold said it's too early to expect the industry to have bought into the program, which has been operating for less than a year.

"I see by this fall you'll see feedlots demanding (the identification) and paying a little bit more for it," said Vold, whose auction mart in Ponoka is the largest in Canada. "That's when you're going to see it pop up more."

Vold said technology to read the identifying ear tags on the animals is being tested and refined. Still, the key is for producers to accept it's the way of the future.

"They have to sit back and realize we're in a different world in the cattle industry," said Vold. "We're going to have to be accountable for everything we produce and raise. We might as well get used to it. Consumers want to know everything about what's on their plate."

Producers are looking for a premium for getting their beef age verified, but a spokesman for one of the major packing plants says that may not be a long term benefit.

"Certain things are going to become the standard by which everyone who wants to do business in the international marketplace will have to adhere," said Robert Meijer of Cargill Foods.

"It's the new reality in the global market," Meijer said from Winnipeg. "You have to lead the way, you have to be ahead of the curve and be better than your competitors in another geography. This is going to be another tool for us succeed in that area."


http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2006/04/16/1536773-cp.html
 

DiamondSCattleCo

Well-known member
RobertMac said:
"We're telling ranchers the world wants Canadian beef at their dinner table," said Alberta Agriculture Minister Doug Horner. "But they're demanding proof that the beef on their plates is from younger animals."

Alberta urges producers to voluntarily sign up their animals before registration becomes mandatory by April 2007. At that point, all animals slaughtered here will have to have proof of a birthday.


Feedlot operator Rick Paskal is frustrated with the number of producers who have been slow to buy in to the free online registration program. He suggests that Ottawa take some of the money it has set aside for export development to help the battered industry and offer cow-calf producers a one-time payment for registering their young animals, perhaps $5 a head.

Hope someone from the Canadian Cattlemen's Association is watching this. They're going to "premium protect" the rest of us out of a market, if they haven't already....

Rod
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
DiamondSCattleCo said:
RobertMac said:
"We're telling ranchers the world wants Canadian beef at their dinner table," said Alberta Agriculture Minister Doug Horner. "But they're demanding proof that the beef on their plates is from younger animals."

Alberta urges producers to voluntarily sign up their animals before registration becomes mandatory by April 2007. At that point, all animals slaughtered here will have to have proof of a birthday.


Feedlot operator Rick Paskal is frustrated with the number of producers who have been slow to buy in to the free online registration program. He suggests that Ottawa take some of the money it has set aside for export development to help the battered industry and offer cow-calf producers a one-time payment for registering their young animals, perhaps $5 a head.

Hope someone from the Canadian Cattlemen's Association is watching this. They're going to "premium protect" the rest of us out of a market, if they haven't already....

Rod

Rod, I think access to (at least some) export markets will depend on age verification or BSE testing...which is cheaper for the packers? :wink:
 

DiamondSCattleCo

Well-known member
Econ101 said:
If the "premium" younger cattle are going to foreign markets, what happens at home?

In so far as North America is concerned, I don't think we have many worries. Between Canada and the US, we have plenty of young animals to serve our needs, AND fulfill a substantial portion of foreign demand.

This is another reason why the closed borders are great for packers. Right now, in Canada, a substantial portion of our commercial meats are those older cows that we used to have a market for. We're shipping all our young stuff away to fulfill demand abroad, and a portion of that young stuff is hitting the US. Then packers can fire US young stuff into foreign countries, or at least they could before their own borders were closed. Now at least 2 packers (Swift and Tyson) can ship young stuff out of Australia, so they're happy.

100% BSE testing in Canada, at least on animals over 20 months, would help open up the market to those older cows again, and we'd finally begin to see some parity in exports. After all, there is a need abroad for those older animals too, we just can't get them there, so to fulfill demand, we're shipping young stuff at a devalued price.

Rod
 

DiamondSCattleCo

Well-known member
RobertMac said:
Rod, I think access to (at least some) export markets will depend on age verification or BSE testing...which is cheaper for the packers? :wink:

I don't know if you followed the thread on mandatory aging that went through a few weeks back or not, but this is the market trend right now. Our customers want either young stuff, or guaranteed BSE free. I was told that I didn't know what I was talking about, even though market analysts and companies who are trying to gain access to foreign markets are saying just that. At least now we're starting to see some writers and columnists echoing those comments, so hopefully the powers that be will finally sit up and take some notice.

Rod
 

rkaiser

Well-known member
Testing of any beef for export market demand would help every one of us Rod.

Ted Haney can talk of his disappointment in the rancher til he is blue in the face (and don't get me wrong Ted supports testing for export marketing at any age), but where is the disappointment in the packers for not supporting testing for export marketing.

You answered econo's question about where the beef would good quite well Rod, but let me try as well.

Canadians eat cow beef. Period. And our very own checkoff dollars are helping deceive those consumers to get rid of it. Not to say that a good D1 cow strip loin is not a good cut of meat,,,,, but Americans are eating our youthful stock and no one seems to care that it is likely costing us customers at home on a daily basis.

Should America take the same route? I doubt if they will. More class separation even than Canada, and more demand for quality even if it costs more. More as in more for the middle man while the producer takes less due to less demand for lower quality due to captive BSEconomics.

Had to laugh at the "new reality" we are so willingly accepting here in Canada for these cull cows and bulls that have never returned as much profit to the middle man in history. A fellow on the radio talked of the strong "seasonal demand for cull bulls at his market. 40 cents a pound. "What season was this he was talking about", I asked myself. Then I realised, ------ it's the cull cattle salmon BSE salmon run season. And it will last just as long as the packers can resist the one and only thing that will stop it. BSE testing for export marketing purposes. I hope they are enjoying the season. It's a good one obviously. The one packer who actually had the guts to show how good it is in the public arena just expanded into the packing industry south of our 49th parallel, and the other two are foxy enough to keep their Canadian profits deep in the accounting cellars.

Still battling on the personal front boys. Took a few more of my culls to the market with bows on their backs Scott. In fact i wanted to prove a point with one, and got **** from our guy who is opening his first in a chain of restaurants with our product, who I had lunch with yesterday. ( Dined on a pretty fine D1 strip steak sandwich by the way.)

This little heifer was my mistake of the year. Genetically inferior and too small. Had to take her calf out the side. Lost the calf. Stitched her up and waited til she healed. Took her in to the local market ---- put my trade mark gift wrapping bow on her back and wrote this on the manifest.

BSE experimental heifer ---- new surgery to take brain sample through the stomach to the brain while the animal is alive. The hillbilly at the unloading chute actually scratched his head for a moment or two. (who needs the brain surgery).

Anywho this 24 month old heifer brought 30 cents per pound and I phoned and severely sarcastically thanked my buyer.

Just my little world.

How's the gopher trapping going this spring Scott? I have let loose on the little buggars with my illegal .22 this spring and looks like I've got the upper hand.
 

Bill

Well-known member
Hope someone from the Canadian Cattlemen's Association is watching this. They're going to "premium protect" the rest of us out of a market, if they haven't already....

Rod

Rod:
so to fulfill demand, we're shipping young stuff at a devalued price.

Could you explain those two comments please Rod?
 

DiamondSCattleCo

Well-known member
Bill said:
Hope someone from the Canadian Cattlemen's Association is watching this. They're going to "premium protect" the rest of us out of a market, if they haven't already....

Rod

Rod:
so to fulfill demand, we're shipping young stuff at a devalued price.

Could you explain those two comments please Rod?

The first one is reference to the CCA's position on not making age verification mandatory AND their unwillingness to hammer the CFIA on 100% BSE testing on animals over 20 months of age. Perhaps these positions have changed after their last meeting, but as of January, that was their stance.

The second one refers to what we're shipping. If the export markets demand X tons of young beef, and Y tons of older beef, but we can only ship young beef, then we need to fulfill some of the demand for old beef with young beef. Since the initial demand was for older beef, our customers would certainly be happy to accept young beef, but they're not going to pony up the big bucks for it either. I doubt anyone would sell young beef for old beef prices, but it definitely puts a heavy downwards pressure on the price of young beef.

Rod
 

Econ101

Well-known member
With bse testing, we could probably ship any animals that would go economically overseas. This limit the USDA has put on the U.S. cattle industry only hurts us, not anyone else.

I have no problem eating cows. You do have them cut a little differently when butchering. Your young bull you gave away would have made fine hamburger with higher meats cut out.

I see this self imposition of no bse testing as nothing more than a slap in the face to domestic consumers on food safety issues, a slap in the face to producers on exports, and a slap in the face to the Japanese and their own food safety/consumer issues, and a cave in on policy to the big packers.

As GW is starting to see, you can not force the thing you want in the world with your superior muscle only.
 
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