• If you are having problems logging in please use the Contact Us in the lower right hand corner of the forum page for assistance.

U.S. Economic Activity Better Than Expected in June

Silver

Well-known member
NEW YORK -- A private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity rose more than expected in June, the third straight monthly increase.

The New York-based Conference Board says its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent last month. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a gain of 0.4 percent.

A rise in building permits and stock prices, and fewer people filing first-time jobless benefit claims, boosted last month's results.

The group also says activity in the six-month period through June rose 2 percent.

Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein says if these conditions continue, "expect a slow recovery this autumn."
 

Mike

Well-known member
The New York-based Conference Board says its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent last month

Inflation rose to .7% last month also. That comes with printing money that we don't have.

Looks like this index is a wash...................... :roll:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Mike said:
The New York-based Conference Board says its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent last month

Inflation rose to .7% last month also. That comes with printing money that we don't have.

Looks like this index is a wash...................... :roll:

Interesting- when most economists around the world- including the US Fed- fear DEFLATION much more than inflation for some time to be...


World Bank: Global Economy Faces Deflation

Friday, July 17, 2009 8:53 AM

By: Julie Crawshaw

The World Bank has given warning that the global economy will fall into a "deflationary spiral" unless urgent action is taken to reduce high levels of excess capacity in industry, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported in the UK Telegraph.


Justin Lin, the bank’s chief economist, said factories running idle around world threaten to trap economies in a vicious cycle, risking further spasms of financial stress that require more rescue packages.


"No country can count on currency depreciation and exports as a way out of recession. Unless we deal with excess capacity, it will wreak havoc on all countries,” Lin said.


“There is urgent need for global coordinated fiscal stimulus,”
with investments being focused on infrastructure in poor countries that are bearing the brunt of the global crisis, he said.


Lin’s comments came as the Bank of Japan agreed to extend its quantitative easing (QE) policies — mostly the purchase of corporate debt — and warned that business investment is "declining sharply.”


Powerful deflationary headwinds already have created deflation in Japan, leading the International Monetary Fund to say that the Japanese government and central bank should be ready to provide additional stimulus measures should global demand fail to improve enough to support a recovery.


“There are downside risks, particularly if export demand continues to remain weak and unemployment starts to weaken consumption further,” Jim Gordon, the IMF mission chief to Japan, told Bloomberg. “This emphasizes the importance of monetary policy, fiscal policy and financial sector policy to remain supportive with additional measures” if the outlook deteriorates.
 

MsSage

Well-known member
Are you saying deflation is GOOD?????
Deflations will cause unemployment to rise, investments to slow,production is curtailed, output shrinks,andit paves the way for depression.

Most economist prefer inflation to deflation. It is difficult to recover from deflation :roll:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
MsSage said:
Are you saying deflation is GOOD?????
Deflations will cause unemployment to rise, investments to slow,production is curtailed, output shrinks,andit paves the way for depression.

Most economist prefer inflation to deflation. It is difficult to recover from deflation :roll:

Yep- most economists say that seeing a little inflation now is a good sign- and signs of possible recovery..
 

MsSage

Well-known member
I reread what you said..........
But you said we are starting into deflation, which throwing money at will not fix it.
So how do you suggest we pull ot of this?
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
MsSage said:
I reread what you said..........
But you said we are starting into deflation, which throwing money at will not fix it.
So how do you suggest we pull ot of this?

Depends on which economic theory you believe in....The Keynesian theory- that I think more fits this day and age of global economies and Federal and World Banks- dictates those government and world banks putting out large sums of money to restimulate the economy:

Keynes argued that the solution to depression was to stimulate the economy ("inducement to invest") through some combination of two approaches: a reduction in interest rates and government investment in infrastructure. Investment by government injects income, which results in more spending in the general economy, which in turn stimulates more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The initial stimulation starts a cascade of events, whose total increase in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.
 

MsSage

Well-known member
Prof. Keynes recognized the dangers of inflation and suggests that it should not go out of control, since hyperinflation can be extremely bad.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
MsSage said:
Prof. Keynes recognized the dangers of inflation and suggests that it should not go out of control, since hyperinflation can be extremely bad.

The Fed can much easier control inflation by interest rates and jerking back money- than they can deflation....

Right now inflation is the last of my worries...
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
MsSage said:
Are you saying deflation is GOOD?????
Deflations will cause unemployment to rise, investments to slow,production is curtailed, output shrinks,andit paves the way for depression.

Most economist prefer inflation to deflation. It is difficult to recover from deflation :roll:

Yep- most economists say that seeing a little inflation now is a good sign- and signs of possible recovery..

It is a sign of money being printed plain and simple.

You want to double the economy? Let Obama print twice as much money.
 

TexasBred

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
MsSage said:
Prof. Keynes recognized the dangers of inflation and suggests that it should not go out of control, since hyperinflation can be extremely bad.

The Fed can much easier control inflation by interest rates and jerking back money- than they can deflation....

Right now inflation is the last of my worries...

Hard for the fed to lower rates below -0- OT and we're almost there, meaning we'll soon be paying China even more to buy US Treasuries.
 

Mike

Well-known member
CPI Report Masks Inflation
Friday May 15, 2009


The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April was down .7% from the prior year, the largest decline since 1955 and a signal of deflation. However, the drop was largely due to a 25% drop in energy prices. (Source: BLS Consumer Price Index: March 2009)


What It Means to You
Food and medical prices rose 3% from a year ago. Rentals, clothing and recreation were up around 1%. The "All Other" category was up 7%. Lower oil and transportation costs are not being translated into lower prices across the economy. This means you will feel the impact of higher prices, even though the government reports say we are in a deflationary period.

Deflation is being felt, however, in many areas not measured by the CPI -- home values, retirement portfolios and wages.
 

MsSage

Well-known member
Right now inflation is the last of my worries...
Pray tell what is your biggest concern?

Right now, mine is Unemployment and how high it will go. Next is cap and trade and if GOD forbid it passes...shoer might lose his truck.
 

TexasBred

Well-known member
Silver said:
NEW YORK -- A private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity rose more than expected in June, the third straight monthly increase.

The New York-based Conference Board says its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent last month. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a gain of 0.4 percent.

A rise in building permits and stock prices, and fewer people filing first-time jobless benefit claims, boosted last month's results.

The group also says activity in the six-month period through June rose 2 percent.

Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein says if these conditions continue, "expect a slow recovery this autumn."

Wow, that's a monster hiccup. Now to find someone not getting government subsidies in some form or fashion who can say 1st hand "I'm much better off now".
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
MsSage said:
Right now inflation is the last of my worries...
Pray tell what is your biggest concern?

Right now, mine is Unemployment and how high it will go. Next is cap and trade and if GOD forbid it passes...shoer might lose his truck.

My biggest concern is the number of people that don't realize we are now in the 21st century- and what we did in the 1800's and 1900's won't work anymore.....

Yep- be a heck of a note if the Energy bill passes and they develop all the new energy development/industry and shoer has all kinds of new cargo to carry like wind turbines, solar panels, gas wellheads, nuclear and electric grid equipment, etc. etc.... :wink:
 

MsSage

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
MsSage said:
Right now inflation is the last of my worries...
Pray tell what is your biggest concern?

Right now, mine is Unemployment and how high it will go. Next is cap and trade and if GOD forbid it passes...shoer might lose his truck.

My biggest concern is the number of people that don't realize we are now in the 21st century- and what we did in the 1800's and 1900's won't work anymore.....

Yep- be a heck of a note if the Energy bill passes and they develop all the new energy development/industry and shoer has all kinds of new cargo to carry like wind turbines, solar panels, gas wellheads, nuclear and electric grid equipment, etc. etc.... :wink:
Your fogetting about the added taxes he is going to have to pay in order to drive that truck...his carbon footprint is HUGE. Its really bad when its over 100 degrees and he cant idle so he can have AC to sleep in. Nope he gets to sweat all night then drive in horrorable traffic wasting more fuel and possibly having a wreck due to lack of sleep.
Now lets look at the added taxes the manufactor of these wind turbins has then the other companies and by the time the product gets to shoer no one can afford it let alone the cost of transporting the product.

You said NUCLEAR ....sorry ot BUT that has already been ruled OUT~ NO NUKES.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
MsSage said:
Oldtimer said:
MsSage said:
Pray tell what is your biggest concern?

Right now, mine is Unemployment and how high it will go. Next is cap and trade and if GOD forbid it passes...shoer might lose his truck.

My biggest concern is the number of people that don't realize we are now in the 21st century- and what we did in the 1800's and 1900's won't work anymore.....

Yep- be a heck of a note if the Energy bill passes and they develop all the new energy development/industry and shoer has all kinds of new cargo to carry like wind turbines, solar panels, gas wellheads, nuclear and electric grid equipment, etc. etc.... :wink:
Your fogetting about the added taxes he is going to have to pay in order to drive that truck...his carbon footprint is HUGE. Its really bad when its over 100 degrees and he cant idle so he can have AC to sleep in. Nope he gets to sweat all night then drive in horrorable traffic wasting more fuel and possibly having a wreck due to lack of sleep.
Now lets look at the added taxes the manufactor of these wind turbins has then the other companies and by the time the product gets to shoer no one can afford it let alone the cost of transporting the product.

You said NUCLEAR ....sorry ot BUT that has already been ruled OUT~ NO NUKES.

Where did you get the "no nukes" idea?

I just heard the Secretary of Energy Chu last week explaining to the Governors Conference the new sites they were licensing and the plans they had working with the NRC on decreasing the paperwork/restrictions/holdups to speed up authorization of more plants.....
Even the Repubs most "love to hate" Dem- Jimmy Carter, in his appearance before Congress put in his strong support for more nuclear energy...
But one of the problems is that without the increased grids and electric power lines the increased production does no good- the reason a LONGTERM comprehensive energy plan is needed.....

Expansive Energy Bill Advances In Congress
Environmentalists Criticize Standards, Offshore Drilling

By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, June 18, 2009
------------
New nuclear plants are likely to get a boost long before the bill becomes law. The Energy Department is negotiating with four utilities over the details of an $18.5 billion award in loan guarantees provided by earlier legislation for the construction of new nuclear plants, government and industry sources said. The companies include UniStar Nuclear Energy, NRG Energy, Scana and Southern Co.

Nuclear-power advocates hope the loan guarantees will help launch a wave of nuclear plants with a new generation of technology; like all nuclear plants, they would not emit greenhouse gases. But foes of nuclear power argue that the power plants remain too expensive to build without federal assistance and that energy efficiency and renewable-energy resources offer better alternatives. New plants could cost anywhere from $6 billion to $12 billion, industry executives say.

All four companies plan to place new units at existing nuclear facilities, which should make regulatory approval and sitting approval easier. Two of the firms are power suppliers that sell electricity at unregulated prices; two are utilities that will be subject to regulation and will seek to recover costs from local ratepayers.
-------
Seventeen companies applied for $122 billion of federal loan guarantees for 21 proposed reactors.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
MsSage said:
I reread what you said..........
But you said we are starting into deflation, which throwing money at will not fix it.
So how do you suggest we pull ot of this?

Depends on which economic theory you believe in....The Keynesian theory- that I think more fits this day and age of global economies and Federal and World Banks- dictates those government and world banks putting out large sums of money to restimulate the economy:

Keynes argued that the solution to depression was to stimulate the economy ("inducement to invest") through some combination of two approaches: a reduction in interest rates and government investment in infrastructure. Investment by government injects income, which results in more spending in the general economy, which in turn stimulates more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The initial stimulation starts a cascade of events, whose total increase in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.

Have you taken into consideration the fact that the Keynesians were proved wrong in this country in the 30s and in Japan in the 90s?
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Sandhusker said:
Oldtimer said:
MsSage said:
I reread what you said..........
But you said we are starting into deflation, which throwing money at will not fix it.
So how do you suggest we pull ot of this?

Depends on which economic theory you believe in....The Keynesian theory- that I think more fits this day and age of global economies and Federal and World Banks- dictates those government and world banks putting out large sums of money to restimulate the economy:

Keynes argued that the solution to depression was to stimulate the economy ("inducement to invest") through some combination of two approaches: a reduction in interest rates and government investment in infrastructure. Investment by government injects income, which results in more spending in the general economy, which in turn stimulates more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The initial stimulation starts a cascade of events, whose total increase in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.

Have you taken into consideration the fact that the Keynesians were proved wrong in this country in the 30s and in Japan in the 90s?

The 30's is a debate-did the work projects or the war end the depression?... There is no doubt tho it made the depression more survivable for millions of people... Many economists believe the Japanese plan did not work because they put forward too little money- too late- spread over years and years bill passages- and for the wrong projects...

The old economic theories may have worked with free market societies- but we do not have a free market society anymore- and haven't for years....
The tax cuts and deregulation that ruled the Bush years worked so well didn't they :???: - brought about the Bush Bust....
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
How does elongating a depression make it more survivable? FDR's own Treasury Secretary said the New Deal didn't work. Cole and Ohanian of UCLA claim Roosevelt and is Keynesian nonsense made the depression last 7 years longer than it would of with no government intervention.

Bush's tax cuts would of worked just fine if he had kept the damn checkbook in his pocket and wrestled Fannie and Freddie from the grips of the libs. Had he done that, this Democrat Depression that we're in never would of happened.
 
Top