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USDA:IMPORT PROJECTIONS

Mike

Well-known member
USDA Long-Term Projections: World Beef Imports

Beef imports by major importers expand about 1.4 million tons (27 percent) between 2007 and 2016. Traditionally, beef trade occurred largely between developed countries. However, Brazil has become a large exporter of lower quality beef that is imported by lower income countries and countries with less stringent import restrictions concerning FMD. The projections assume gradual recovery of U.S. and Canadian exports to Japan and South Korea.

• Higher income countries, such as Japan and South Korea, increase beef imports, reflecting domestic cattle sectors that are constrained by land availability. These imports are primarily of grain-fed beef. U.S. beef exports to these countries are projected to rebuild over the next 10 years, but do not completely recover to levels attained prior to the first U.S. BSE case in December 2003. Also, there continues to be an increased presence of Australia and New Zealand in these East Asian markets.

• U.S. beef imports, primarily of grass-fed lean beef from Australia and New Zealand for use in ground beef and processed products, rise slightly through the period. Continued strong Asian imports of beef from Australia and New Zealand enable these exporters to maintain significant levels of exports.

• Robust import growth of U.S. higher quality beef is projected for Mexico.

• The projections assume that Russia’s tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef, first imposed in 2003, remains in effect until 2009. In the longer run, the growth in Russia’s beef imports resumes as rising consumer demand outpaces gains in domestic production. Russia remains a large market for EU and Brazilian beef exports.
 
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