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What is the General Health of the Beef Business?

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Econ101

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Today's beef outlook 12-6

By Jim Cote; Dow Jones Newswires



Cattle Fundamentals



The USDA's composite value for choice beef Monday was up $1.28 at $151.95

while select was up $2.05 at $142.30. The volume of sales for fabricated loads

was about 172, while the load count for trimmings and coarse grinds was 129.



The beef packer profit margin was a minus $17.00 per head.



The CME feeder index fell 42 points to 116.44 Monday.



(Note: The operating margin index is not intended as an exact profit/loss

statement for packers, but as an indication of the general health of the

industry. The index was calculated by www.HedgersEdge.com.)
 

Econ101

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Does anyone producing beef want to hand over money to the packers since the packer margin per head is an estimated minus $17.00 per head?

MRJ, Jason, or SH, here is your chance to support the packers. Take a stand.

SH, where is your "cattle prices follow boxed beef prices" theory of the cattle market? Seems you owe the packers some money.
 

Murgen

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Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?
 

mrj

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Murgen said:
Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Murgen, maybe you are expecting too much from eCON. He/she probably is too busy cheering and celebrating because the packers are taking a hit right now to answer your question.

I have no reason not to believe the numbers. Doubtless if the trend continues, and affects other packers, they will be less likely to pay todays rate for cattle, won't they?

MRJ
 

Econ101

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Murgen said:
Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Murgen, I don't really trust these numbers. They are just guesses. I am sure agman can come up with more accurate numbers. My point is that the spread between the producers and packers varies all the time. It is all about supply and demand and not SH's boxed beef argument or any other.
 

TimH

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Econ101 said:
Murgen said:
Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Murgen, I don't really trust these numbers. They are just guesses. I am sure agman can come up with more accurate numbers. My point is that the spread between the producers and packers varies all the time. It is all about supply and demand and not SH's boxed beef argument or any other.

Econ, are you saying that ,in your opinion, numbers provided by Agman would be more accurate than those provided by Hedger's Edge? :wink:
 

Econ101

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TimH said:
Econ101 said:
Murgen said:
Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Murgen, I don't really trust these numbers. They are just guesses. I am sure agman can come up with more accurate numbers. My point is that the spread between the producers and packers varies all the time. It is all about supply and demand and not SH's boxed beef argument or any other.

Econ, are you saying that ,in your opinion, numbers provided by Agman would be more accurate than those provided by Hedger's Edge? :wink:

I have no idea how truthful either of them are. Some people continually lie to themselves and others.
 

agman

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Econ101 said:
Murgen said:
Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Murgen, I don't really trust these numbers. They are just guesses. I am sure agman can come up with more accurate numbers. My point is that the spread between the producers and packers varies all the time. It is all about supply and demand and not SH's boxed beef argument or any other.

Those are my numbers and they have proven to be very accurate. They are not guesses. If you want to see how accurate they are just track the margin, negative or positive with the trend in weekly slaughter rates. That is always the truest measurement of their validity.

Boxed beef values and live prices do track each other over any extended period of time. They do not always parallel each other short term for many various and legitimate reasons.

The main reason for the disconnect short term is that supply does not always match with consumer demand. Point: Larger summer supplies occur at the very time when consumer demand weakens seasonally. Thus, this leads to lower summer prices. Conversely, tighter supplies occur in the spring when the industry transitions away from fall yearling placements toward prior fall calf placements. This transition occurs when consumer demand is at its peak. The result is seasonally high prices in the late winter and spring period. This also accounts for the gain in the choice/select price spread in the late winter and spring period. I hope this explanation helps all readers to better understand the seasonal swing in margins and seasonal price swings for beef cutout values and live cattle prices.
 

Murgen

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Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Did you know Hedgers Edge was Agman's numbers, or did you goof by quoting these numbers to make your own point, unwittingly adding credibility to Agman, who you continually try to discredit on this forum?


My point with this question Econ101, was that you seem to discount most of what Agman says on this forum, and then you quote his numbers to make your points. That's hyocritical!
 

Econ101

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Murgen said:
Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Did you know Hedgers Edge was Agman's numbers, or did you goof by quoting these numbers to make your own point, unwittingly adding credibility to Agman, who you continually try to discredit on this forum?


My point with this question Econ101, was that you seem to discount most of what Agman says on this forum, and then you quote his numbers to make your points. That's hyocritical!

It is funny that I can use his own figures to make my points, isn't it? I said before that you can find good in anything. Agman is no exception. I have continually used his information he brings to make my points. I am well aware of his industry specific information. I just don't agree on his economic interpretation and his reading of the PSA. It is not hypocritical. My calculator does a lot more calculations than I do but I would consider myself smarter than my calculator. Same with you.

If you will read my posts you will see that I mostly argue points and I try to stop short of making my own judgements of Agman. Sometimes I slip. After all, I am human.
 

agman

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Econ101 said:
Murgen said:
Econ101
How much faith do you put in these numbers? Are they accurate?

I believe them, just wondering your thoughts?

Did you know Hedgers Edge was Agman's numbers, or did you goof by quoting these numbers to make your own point, unwittingly adding credibility to Agman, who you continually try to discredit on this forum?


My point with this question Econ101, was that you seem to discount most of what Agman says on this forum, and then you quote his numbers to make your points. That's hyocritical!

It is funny that I can use his own figures to make my points, isn't it? I said before that you can find good in anything. Agman is no exception. I have continually used his information he brings to make my points. I am well aware of his industry specific information. I just don't agree on his economic interpretation and his reading of the PSA. It is not hypocritical. My calculator does a lot more calculations than I do but I would consider myself smarter than my calculator. Same with you.

If you will read my posts you will see that I mostly argue points and I try to stop short of making my own judgements of Agman. Sometimes I slip. After all, I am human.

In all due respect you present your opinions that are never supported by corroberating data or facts. That has been illustrated with virtually every post you make. It is truly laughable to suggest you use my data to prove your point. You are not even sure of the point you are trying to make-you dance around all the time. I need not list for you or readers all the false allegations you have made since appearing on this forum, none of which you have supported. For every condition that has been presented on these forums your only answer was another unsupported manipulation allegation. Those never ending manipulation accusations from you became very old and transparent in a hurry. You still fool no one but yourself with such hyperbole.
 

Econ101

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agman said:
Econ101 said:
Murgen said:
Did you know Hedgers Edge was Agman's numbers, or did you goof by quoting these numbers to make your own point, unwittingly adding credibility to Agman, who you continually try to discredit on this forum?


My point with this question Econ101, was that you seem to discount most of what Agman says on this forum, and then you quote his numbers to make your points. That's hyocritical!

It is funny that I can use his own figures to make my points, isn't it? I said before that you can find good in anything. Agman is no exception. I have continually used his information he brings to make my points. I am well aware of his industry specific information. I just don't agree on his economic interpretation and his reading of the PSA. It is not hypocritical. My calculator does a lot more calculations than I do but I would consider myself smarter than my calculator. Same with you.

If you will read my posts you will see that I mostly argue points and I try to stop short of making my own judgements of Agman. Sometimes I slip. After all, I am human.

In all due respect you present your opinions that are never supported by corroberating data or facts. That has been illustrated with virtually every post you make. It is truly laughable to suggest you use my data to prove your point. You are not even sure of the point you are trying to make-you dance around all the time. I need not list for you or readers all the false allegations you have made since appearing on this forum, none of which you have supported. For every condition that has been presented on these forums your only answer was another unsupported manipulation allegation. Those never ending manipulation accusations from you became very old and transparent in a hurry. You still fool no one but yourself with such hyperbole.

I corroborate them with the "facts" you bring to the table, Agman. I thank you for your support.
 

pointrider

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But Econ, I can't read between the lines and determine if you have a solution to the ills of the beef industry as you see them or what it is if you do have one. You've made a point or two along the way such as "Make the folks at USDA more accountable (your favorite organization)." Perhaps you could make a short list for us from your long list so we can see where you want everyone to go. I'm certain it will get some good dialog going. Thanks in advance!
 

Econ101

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pointrider said:
But Econ, I can't read between the lines and determine if you have a solution to the ills of the beef industry as you see them or what it is if you do have one. You've made a point or two along the way such as "Make the folks at USDA more accountable (your favorite organization)." Perhaps you could make a short list for us from your long list so we can see where you want everyone to go. I'm certain it will get some good dialog going. Thanks in advance!

Pointrider, there are a lot of things for the beef industry to do. On the producer side there are actions like Jason suggested that makes him more efficient. On the packer side, there are things that Agman has suggested that add value (convenience meals, etc.). I am interested in the market side; that relationship between the producers and the packers. This side has to work efficiently for the other things to add value to the producers. Pickett showed that they were not.

Call me a one man issue if you want. It is the most important issue. It is the big game.
 

agman

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Econ101 said:
pointrider said:
But Econ, I can't read between the lines and determine if you have a solution to the ills of the beef industry as you see them or what it is if you do have one. You've made a point or two along the way such as "Make the folks at USDA more accountable (your favorite organization)." Perhaps you could make a short list for us from your long list so we can see where you want everyone to go. I'm certain it will get some good dialog going. Thanks in advance!

Pointrider, there are a lot of things for the beef industry to do. On the producer side there are actions like Jason suggested that makes him more efficient. On the packer side, there are things that Agman has suggested that add value (convenience meals, etc.). I am interested in the market side; that relationship between the producers and the packers. This side has to work efficiently for the other things to add value to the producers. Pickett showed that they were not.

Call me a one man issue if you want. It is the most important issue. It is the big game.

When you did not know that USDA graders determine the quality grade of carcasses, not packers, why should anyone believe you understand anything regarding the beef industry. Factors that are just very basic knowledge you do not even know so how do you formulate your unending stream of allegations with no knowledge? You have a great imagination for manipulation theories but you have demonstrated no other ability.
 

Econ101

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agman said:
Econ101 said:
pointrider said:
But Econ, I can't read between the lines and determine if you have a solution to the ills of the beef industry as you see them or what it is if you do have one. You've made a point or two along the way such as "Make the folks at USDA more accountable (your favorite organization)." Perhaps you could make a short list for us from your long list so we can see where you want everyone to go. I'm certain it will get some good dialog going. Thanks in advance!

Pointrider, there are a lot of things for the beef industry to do. On the producer side there are actions like Jason suggested that makes him more efficient. On the packer side, there are things that Agman has suggested that add value (convenience meals, etc.). I am interested in the market side; that relationship between the producers and the packers. This side has to work efficiently for the other things to add value to the producers. Pickett showed that they were not.

Call me a one man issue if you want. It is the most important issue. It is the big game.

When you did not know that USDA graders determine the quality grade of carcasses, not packers, why should anyone believe you understand anything regarding the beef industry. Factors that are just very basic knowledge you do not even know so how do you formulate your unending stream of allegations with no knowledge? You have a great imagination for manipulation theories but you have demonstrated no other ability.

Agman, if you want to get technical here, feeders and the ration as well as the time on the ration, genetics, and a whole lot of other factors determine the quality grade. USDA graders just put their best guess on it.

Why would you think I didn't know that USDA graders put the stamp on it? If you can't win an argument you just have to make one up, I guess. Everyone should believe you, then they would not have to think. :lol: :lol: :lol:
 

Murgen

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Agman, if you want to get technical here, feeders and the ration as well as the time on the ration, genetics, and a whole lot of other factors determine the quality grade. USDA graders just put their best guess on it.

And getting paid for this quality that the producer has the most effect on, is best taken advantage of through grids and formulas. Selling live does little to let you reap the benefits of producing more quality than your competitor!

How many on the forum actually feed cattle, or are most strictly cow/calf? How many's customer is the packer, vs. the feeder?
 

Econ101

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Murgen said:
Agman, if you want to get technical here, feeders and the ration as well as the time on the ration, genetics, and a whole lot of other factors determine the quality grade. USDA graders just put their best guess on it.

And getting paid for this quality that the producer has the most effect on, is best taken advantage of through grids and formulas. Selling live does little to let you reap the benefits of producing more quality than your competitor!

How many on the forum actually feed cattle, or are most strictly cow/calf? How many's customer is the packer, vs. the feeder?

Murgen, the grid or formula pricing is not the problem. It is its use as captive supply that is.
 
A

Anonymous

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Conman: "It is funny that I can use his own figures to make my points, isn't it?"

Conman: "I have continually used his information he brings to make my points."

For entertainment purposes only, what was the point you thought you had this time? I can only imagine!

Talk is cheap and no cheaper than from you Conman!



~SH~
 

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