Oldtimer said:I agree with the article- the election will be in the hands of the nearly 40% of current US voters who are Independents...The reason an extremist from either side can't win- and that only Romney stands any chance of beating Obama...
"Conservatives" Are Single-Largest Ideological Group
Percentage of "liberals" higher this decade than in early '90s
by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- Thus far in 2009, 40% of Americans interviewed in national Gallup Poll surveys describe their political views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This represents a slight increase for conservatism in the U.S. since 2008, returning it to a level last seen in 2004. The 21% calling themselves liberal is in line with findings throughout this decade, but is up from the 1990s.
In 2010, Conservatives Still Outnumber Moderates, Liberals
Last year's increase in conservatism among independents is holding
by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- Conservatives have maintained their leading position among U.S. ideological groups in the first half of 2010. Gallup finds 42% of Americans describing themselves as either very conservative or conservative. This is up slightly from the 40% seen for all of 2009 and contrasts with the 20% calling themselves liberal or very liberal.
U.S. Political Ideology Stable With Conservatives Leading
PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' political ideology at the midyear point of 2011 looks similar to 2009 and 2010, with 41% self-identifying as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 21% as liberal.
Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S.
Overall, the nation has grown more polarized over the past decade
by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- Political ideology in the U.S. held steady in 2011, with 40% of Americans continuing to describe their views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This marks the third straight year that conservatives have outnumbered moderates, after more than a decade in which moderates mainly tied or outnumbered conservatives.
Is Romney going to get a big bounce from yesterday's voting? Probably not. The inescapable fact remains that a majority of Republicans do not want him as their nominee and he is merely winning because the opposition to him remains bitterly divided and he can outspend them 4 to 1 or more. In the general election, he won't have that advantage . Furthermore, within a week Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi are going to vote, and if Santorum wins all three--which is a serious possibility--the contest will continue for a while. If Gingrich does poorly in the two deep South states, Gingrich's financier, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, may finally decide to pull the plug on him, giving Santorum a real boost.
Why can't Romney close the deal? Basically, because the Republican Party is badly divided internally. Young, libertarian, voters clearly prefer Ron Paul and dislike Romney enough that some of them might just write in Paul's name in November just to make a point. For them, Obama is no worse than Romney, and in some ways, like abortion and gay rights, arguably better. Downscale, evangelicals have little interest in Romney, as evidenced by his shellacking in rural Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. Wealthy Republicans can identify with Romney and are simply voting their economic interests. For them, Jon Huntsman or any rich Republican would do just as well. Once Romney is the nominee, all factions will nominally close ranks behind him, but the big question is how much enthusiasm there will be. When a noted conservative pundit like George Will basically concedes the presidential election to Obama and says conservatives should focus on winning the Senate and holding the House, there clearly is an internal problem within the Republican Party and unless Romney knocks out his contenders quickly, it is only going to get worse.
Oldtimer said:Is Romney going to get a big bounce from yesterday's voting? Probably not. The inescapable fact remains that a majority of Republicans do not want him as their nominee and he is merely winning because the opposition to him remains bitterly divided and he can outspend them 4 to 1 or more. In the general election, he won't have that advantage . Furthermore, within a week Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi are going to vote, and if Santorum wins all three--which is a serious possibility--the contest will continue for a while. If Gingrich does poorly in the two deep South states, Gingrich's financier, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, may finally decide to pull the plug on him, giving Santorum a real boost.
Why can't Romney close the deal? Basically, because the Republican Party is badly divided internally. Young, libertarian, voters clearly prefer Ron Paul and dislike Romney enough that some of them might just write in Paul's name in November just to make a point. For them, Obama is no worse than Romney, and in some ways, like abortion and gay rights, arguably better. Downscale, evangelicals have little interest in Romney, as evidenced by his shellacking in rural Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. Wealthy Republicans can identify with Romney and are simply voting their economic interests. For them, Jon Huntsman or any rich Republican would do just as well. Once Romney is the nominee, all factions will nominally close ranks behind him, but the big question is how much enthusiasm there will be. When a noted conservative pundit like George Will basically concedes the presidential election to Obama and says conservatives should focus on winning the Senate and holding the House, there clearly is an internal problem within the Republican Party and unless Romney knocks out his contenders quickly, it is only going to get worse.
hypocritexposer said:So what advantage has Romney had so far, being able to outspend everyone 6 to 1?
In Ohio, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, Romney had 37.9 percent of the vote and Santorum 37.1 percent, according to the Associated Press tally.
The Romney campaign raised $11.5 million in February, almost doubling its January haul of $6.4 million, reports the Los Angeles Times. Romney barely edged out Rick Santorum, who brought in $9 million in February from over 100,000 individual donors. Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports posted yesterday show. He took in 57 percent of his money last month in donations of $200 or less, according to FEC records.
Pew: 20 percent of Mitt voters pick Obama over Santorum
By ALEXANDER BURNS | 3/15/12 10:20 AM EDT
Pew has a long survey out today that paints a pretty rosy picture of the 2012 race for President Obama. A good bit of the president's advantage is built on divisions within the GOP -- Mitt Romney supporters declining to say they'd support Rick Santorum and vice versa. That's the kind of dynamic that typically fades over time as a primary gets resolved and the general election engages in earnest.
There's at least one nugget in the poll, however, that points to a potentially deeper division in the party -- not between conservatives and Romney, but between Romney supporters and the harder-right candidates in the Republican field. Consider:
For example, 75% of Romney's primary supporters say they would back him strongly in the fall – equal to the share of Democrats who strongly back Obama. But just 55% of Santorum's primary supporters say they would be strong Romney supporters in the fall.
Again, this gap within the GOP is even wider if Santorum is the nominee. Fully 83% of Santorum's primary supporters would back him strongly in the fall – comparable to the 80% of Democrats who would back Obama strongly over Santorum. But just 47% of Romney's primary supporters would back Santorum as enthusiastically. In fact, one-in-five (20%) Romney supporters say that, if Santorum is the nominee, they will likely switch sides and support Obama.
The big-picture narrative of the Republican race has always focused on Romney's struggles to win over his party's base, and with good reason. But the Pew data suggests the gulf works both ways and that if Santorum or anyone else in the party assumes Romney's fans would automatically get on board with a more conservative alternative, they're mistaken.
