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Ranchers.net

http://www.smallgrains.org/article.aspx?id=6775

Closing Wheat Commentary 02/25
(Country Hedging - 2/25/2008)

Highlights:



MGE March contract has no limits. All other months will expand to $1.35 beginning with tonight’s trade at 6 PM Chicago Time.
KCBT trade limits will expand to 90 cents starting with this evening’s trade.
CBOT wheat trade limits will go to 90 cents beginning with tonight’s trade.
Minneapolis: Mpls led all the grains higher with no limit in March taking prices $5.75 higher to $25.00 before settling $4.75 higher @ $24.00. With 2000 contracts still open in the March, as of this morning, here may be further bleeding before it’s over with. With the H/K spread trading between 380 to 400, and cash premiums in excess of +400 the MWK any deliveries against the March seem remote. Synthetically, May was $19.50, July $15.50 and Sept and Dec 15-20 cents higher. Tomorrow limits will be expanded to 135 in all the months except nearby march which has no limit.



Kansas City: HRW settled sharply higher today as limit-up trade pushed prices to the ceiling once again. Supply concerns motivated buyers as MGE wheat posted astronomical gains in their front-month March contract. Prices stayed limit up for the majority of the session as news that drought was affecting Chinese growing areas drove global supply fear back into the market. Spread activity was dominant with traders unable to establish positions in the lock-limit market. Premiums expanded by 40 cents in some spreads as buying interest increased throughout the session. With the minimum of two limit-bid months in KC wheat on the close, trading limits will expand to 90 cents for at least the next 3 days beginning tonight/tomorrow.



Chicago: Chicago followed Mpls higher in moderate trade with the May 130 higher synthetically and the July, Sept and Dec all trading 48 cents higher. Cash markets continue to have a weaker tone weighing on spreads and basis levels.



Basis: Mpls: Spot bids are steady to down 25 for14’s at +400-425, and 15’ssteady at +500-600.



KC: Spot bids are 5 to 50 lower today while gulf bids are steady/lower.



Spreads: Mpls: H/K 380 to 400; K/N 385 to 400; U/Z 11 to 15.



KC: H/K: 2-3, K/N: 90-95, N/U: 4 ½-3, H/N: 92-98.



OUTLOOK: Higher start tomorrow on extremely tight stocks and limit up trade in all three wheat pits today.



Ami L Heesch

[email protected]
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