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Who saw this coming?

Silver

Well-known member
U.S. will become energy self-sufficient by 2035, report says


The Canadian Press

The International Energy Agency predicts the United States will be capable of meeting its own energy needs by 2035, and that it will become the world’s largest oil producer by the end of this decade — eclipsing Saudi Arabia for a time.

The U.S. march toward energy self-sufficiency will have implications for Canada, which has been sending some 2.45 million barrels of crude a day south of the border so far this year and is the country’s top oil supplier.

“The United States, which currently imports around 20 per cent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms — a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries,” the agency said in its World Energy Outlook, released Monday.

The IEA said the surge in U.S. production is a result of technological advances that have helped unlock vast oil supplies from shale rock formations such as the Bakken, which stretches through parts of North Dakota, Montana and Saskatchewan.

The increased output, along with stepped up fuel efficiency measures in the transportation sector, mean U.S. oil imports will wane so much that North America will become a net exporter around 2030.

The U.S. is expected to overtake Saudi Arabia as the globe’s top oil producer before 2020 until about the middle of the next decade when the Saudis take back their top spot.

In the next few years, supplies will increasingly come from countries that don’t belong to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Canada. Non-OPEC production is expected to plateau at 53 million barrels a day after 2015, up from nearly 49 million in 2011.

OPEC’s share of global production is expected to rise after 2020, from its current 42 per cent to 50 per cent by 2035.

Within Canada, there has been a push to look beyond the United States as an export customer to energy-hungry markets elsewhere in the world, particularly in Asia.

There are currently two pipeline proposals in the works — Enbridge Inc.’s (TSX: ENB) Northern Gateway and Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion — to connect growing Canadian supplies to Asia via West Coast export terminals.

Supporters of West Coast oil pipelines call those projects nation-building undertakings of the same magnitude as the national railway that would bring substantial economic benefits to Canada.

But the idea of shipping crude by pipeline through British Columbia’s mountainous terrain and then by supertanker through coastal waters has not been sitting well with many, particularly in B.C.

There are fears a spill could cause dire environmental harm and dozens of B.C. First Nations groups have said there are no circumstances under which they would allow an oil pipeline to cross their land.

As an alternative to the controversial West Coast projects, Enbridge and fellow pipeline giant TransCanada Corp. (TSX: TRP) are looking east. Both have plans in the works to send crude to Ontario and Quebec, with the possibility of eventually exporting crude through various points in the Atlantic basin.

In its report, the IEA made note of Asia’s rising significance.

For example, oil exports out of the Mideast will increasingly go to Asia as the U.S. becomes more self-sufficient. That will increase the global focus on the security of strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. Tensions between Iran and western powers have raised concerns that oil exports from the Persian Gulf could be blocked in a potential conflict over Tehran’s alleged plan to develop nuclear weapons.

The IEA added that global trends in the energy markets will be influenced by some countries’ retreat from nuclear power, the fast spread of wind and solar technologies and a rise in unconventional gas production.

The agency concluded that despite the rising use of low carbon energy sources, huge subsidies will keep fossil fuels “dominant in the global energy mix.”

“Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path,” the IEA said.

Global energy needs are forecast to increase by a third by 2035, with 60 per cent of the additional demand coming from China, India and the Middle East.

With files from The Associated Press
 

Steve

Well-known member
the report relies on declining usage mostly due to the new energy source..

mdi-airpod-car-auto-green.png


yep the dang thing runs on democrat's rhetoric.. gets about three miles to a speech.. four if you tune into Air America while coasting down the sidewalk..
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
Imagine the wealth and strength that the US could have, if they take advantage of this resource, and then imagine the weakness of the US, if they don't.

I wonder which Barry will choose.
 

Steve

Well-known member
hypocritexposer said:
Imagine the wealth and strength that the US could have, if they take advantage of this resource, and then imagine the weakness of the US, if they don't.

I wonder which Barry will choose.
Tthe voters chose Obama,.. and should be happy with $5 to $8 gas and rationing..

They should be downright ecstatic when their electric bill doubles..

and if Obama can stop all this fracking, we should be able to get the natural gas prices up again...

so rejoice Obama voters, those who didn't vote, and the ones who voted for Johnson,.. because the misery of others is on your hands now...

but be thankful that once Obama drives our economy to a halt.. and no one can afford gas, electric and none has a job, at least we will be energy independent (unless there is a shortage of horses and hay)...

wow, another reason to be thankful they voted for Obama,.. horse prices will go up ...
 

Silver

Well-known member
Guess I should have realized this would degenerate into whining about things political. I thought it was just interesting what has happened with oil production in the US in the last decade. Wether that's because of or despite of the administrations in place over the last 10 years I have no opinion (and don't really care), but it is impressive that on the course it is presently on the US is about to become the worlds largest producer of oil. That has nothing to do with consumption and horses vs. tractors.
To me it's a wakeup call to Canada that we'd better get busy finding markets for our oil and considering our infrastructure for exporting oil because we may not only be facing losing our best customer but having to compete with that former customer.
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
Silver said:
Guess I should have realized this would degenerate into whining about things political. I thought it was just interesting what has happened with oil production in the US in the last decade. Wether that's because of or despite of the administrations in place over the last 10 years I have no opinion (and don't really care), but it is impressive that on the course it is presently on the US is about to become the worlds largest producer of oil. That has nothing to do with consumption and horses vs. tractors.
To me it's a wakeup call to Canada that we'd better get busy finding markets for our oil and considering our infrastructure for exporting oil because we may not only be facing losing our best customer but having to compete with that former customer.

Silver, it's most likely more propaganda considering who is in charge in the USA. And I don't mean that to be political,
I mean it as fact. Just because it is there, doesn't mean we can drill for it. Right now down here since
Obama got elected, the oil companies aren't sure just what to do.
The greenies are currently trying to stop fracking in the Bakken and they
have Obama's ear, of course. What else is new?
 

Silver

Well-known member
Okay, so it was a phony article and you are in fact producing less oil. Probably should have checked here first. :wink:
 

TexasBred

Well-known member
Silver said:
Okay, so it was a phony article and you are in fact producing less oil. Probably should have checked here first. :wink:

Silver production is up but only back up to about 2003 levels after many years of decline. Not all of this is new production but rather a lot of older wells which had not been producing were put back on line once oil prices went thru the roof. There are some wells here in Texas that have been producing for 70 years that I'm aware of an possibly longer.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020


By Lananh Nguyen - Nov 12, 2012 10:39 AM MT ..Facebook Share LinkedIn Google +1 128 Comments
Print QUEUEQ..
Play IEA: US to Overtake Saudi Arabia in Oil Production
U.S. oil output is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia’s in the next decade, making the world’s biggest fuel consumer almost self-reliant and putting it on track to become a net exporter, the International Energy Agency said.

Enlarge image
U.S. to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production by 2020, IEA Says Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
The U.S. met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first six months of this year, on track to be the highest annual level since 1991, according to Energy Department data.




(Bloomberg) -- International Energy Agency Chief Economist Fatih Birol discusses global oil production, U.S. imports and renewable energy. He speaks with Francine Lacqua and Guy Johnson from London on Bloomberg Television's "City Central." (Source: Bloomberg)


Chart: Saudi Arabia Versus U.S. Crude Production .Growing supplies of crude extracted through new technology including hydraulic fracturing of underground rock formations will transform the U.S. into the largest producer for about five years starting about 2020, the Paris-based adviser to 28 nations said today in its annual World Energy Outlook. The U.S. met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first six months of this year, according to the Energy Department in Washington.

“The IEA outlook feeds into the idea of a shift in the center of influence in the world oil market,” said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Given Saudi Arabia is willing to shift production up and down it will retain a large degree of influence, and remain important as a price-influencer.”

The U.S., whose crude imports have fallen 11 percent this year, is on track to produce the most oil since 1991, according to Energy Department data. In a year when Iran has threatened to halt Persian Gulf oil shipments, the growing output, coupled with a gas-production boom, may help insulate the nation from supply disruptions. President Barack Obama cited “freeing ourselves from foreign oil” as a policy goal in his election victory speech last week, echoing his predecessor, George W. Bush, who in 2006 urged the U.S. to break its “addiction” to imported crude.

Oil Prices
West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark U.S. grade, has dropped 13 percent this year to $85.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as stockpiles swelled to a 22-year high. Prices have more than quadrupled in the past decade, reaching as high as $147.27 a barrel in July 2008.

Global demand for oil is projected to rise to 99.7 million barrels a day in 2035, up from 87.4 million last year, according to the IEA, which advises industrialized nations including the U.S., Germany and Japan. Today’s report projects trends to 2035.

Saudi Arabia pumped 9.8 million barrels of oil a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. output was 6.7 million barrels a day in the week ended Nov. 2, according to the Energy Department.

Overtaking Saudi Arabia
The U.S. will pump 11.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2020 and 10.9 million in 2025, the IEA said. Those figures are 500,000 barrels a day and 100,000 barrels a day higher, respectively, than its forecasts for Saudi Arabia for those years.
The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S.

“Around 2017, the U.S. will be the largest oil producer of the world, overtaking Saudi Arabia,” IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said at a press conference in London today. “This is of course a major development and definitely will have significant implications.”

Officials at the U.S. Energy Department weren’t available for comment because government offices were closed in observance of the U.S. Veteran’s Day holiday today. A Saudi Arabian oil ministry official based in Riyadh wasn’t immediately available to comment on the report when contacted by phone today.

The IEA report described the U.S.’s advancement toward energy self-sufficiency as “a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries.” The nation is developing so-called tight oil reserves including the Bakken shale formation, which are extracted by hydraulic fracturing or horizontal drilling.

Shrinking Imports
U.S. oil imports will drop to about 4 million barrels a day in 10 years from a current average of 10 million because of new production and stricter fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks, which will curb demand, Birol said.

The IEA isn’t alone in forecasting that the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the largest oil producer. The U.S. will achieve that goal before the end of this decade, Citigroup Inc. said in a March 20 report that included biofuels and natural gas liquids in its calculations.

The European Union banned oil imports from Iran in July over the nation’s nuclear program, reducing shipments from a country that was until then the second-biggest producer in OPEC.

The IEA’s members will probably pay about $125 a barrel for imported oil by 2035, compared with Brent crude prices near $109 today on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The North Sea grade peaked at a record $147.50 a barrel in July 2008 before tumbling to about $46 that December, and has gained in each of the three years since then.

‘Epic Failure’
Efforts by global policy makers to promote energy efficiency have been an “epic failure” and fallen short of their economic potential, Birol said. Increased energy-saving measures could cut worldwide oil demand by almost 13 million barrels a day by 2035, or the current combined output of Russia and Norway. Put another way, were efficiency measures suggested by the IEA enacted in full, the increase in world energy demand over the period would be cut in half.

Natural gas consumption will rise in the forecast period, driven by China, India and the Middle East.

“In the United States, low prices and abundant supply see gas overtake oil around 2030 to become the largest fuel in the energy mix,” according to the report, written by a team of researchers led by Birol.

Iraqi Surge
Iraq will be the biggest contributor to new oil supplies, raising production to 6 million barrels a day by 2020. By 2035, the nation’s output rate will rise to more than 8 million, overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter, the IEA said. The country pumped 3.4 million barrels a day last month, making it the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, after Saudi Arabia, according to Bloomberg estimates.

The forecasts for Iraq, a special focus of this year’s IEA outlook, were previously published on Oct. 9.

In emerging nations, government subsidies will continue to spur fossil fuels use, even as lower-carbon energy sources become more popular. State subsidies cost $523 billion last year, up almost 30 percent from 2010. Subsidy programs, which remain most prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa, have become more expensive as oil prices rose, the agency said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-12/u-s-to-overtake-saudi-arabia-s-oil-production-by-2020-iea-says.html
 

Mike

Well-known member
Just think, if Buckwheat would open up drilling on Federal land we might be self sufficient a lot sooner. :roll:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
It appears as tho GW was blowing smoke and only approving drilling permits on dry holes-- as ever since Obama has taken office- the US production of oil has increased....


year production change
1980 8,597.00 NA
1981 8,572.00 -0.29 %
1982 8,649.00 0.90 %
1983 8,688.00 0.45 %
1984 8,879.00 2.20 %
1985 8,971.00 1.04 %
1986 8,680.00 -3.24 %
1987 8,349.14 -3.81 %
1988 8,140.00 -2.50 %
1989 7,613.00 -6.47 %
1990 7,355.31 -3.38 %
1991 7,416.55 0.83 %
1992 7,171.12 -3.31 %
1993 6,846.67 -4.52 %
1994 6,661.58 -2.70 %
1995 6,559.64 -1.53 %
1996 6,464.52 -1.45 %
1997 6,451.59 -0.20 %
1998 6,251.83 -3.10 %
1999 5,881.46 -5.92 %
2000 5,821.60 -1.02 %
2001 5,801.40 -0.35 %
2002 5,745.55 -0.96 %
2003 5,680.70 -1.13 %
2004 5,418.85 -4.61 %
2005 5,178.38 -4.44 %
2006 5,102.08 -1.47 %
2007 5,064.25 -0.74 %
2008 4,950.32 -2.25 %
2009 5,360.54 8.29 %
2010 5,474.35 2.12 %
2011 5,672.56 3.62 %



http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=production
 

Steve

Well-known member
2009 5,360.54 8.29 %

since when has oil production been instantaneous?

by the look of it the oil production decline halted in 2008 and started increasing only to be slowed down by 2010
 

gmacbeef

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
It appears as tho GW was blowing smoke and only approving drilling permits on dry holes-- as ever since Obama has taken office- the US production of oil has increased....


year production change
1980 8,597.00 NA
1981 8,572.00 -0.29 %
1982 8,649.00 0.90 %
1983 8,688.00 0.45 %
1984 8,879.00 2.20 %
1985 8,971.00 1.04 %
1986 8,680.00 -3.24 %
1987 8,349.14 -3.81 %
1988 8,140.00 -2.50 %
1989 7,613.00 -6.47 %
1990 7,355.31 -3.38 %
1991 7,416.55 0.83 %
1992 7,171.12 -3.31 %
1993 6,846.67 -4.52 %
1994 6,661.58 -2.70 %
1995 6,559.64 -1.53 %
1996 6,464.52 -1.45 %
1997 6,451.59 -0.20 %
1998 6,251.83 -3.10 %
1999 5,881.46 -5.92 %
2000 5,821.60 -1.02 %
2001 5,801.40 -0.35 %
2002 5,745.55 -0.96 %
2003 5,680.70 -1.13 %
2004 5,418.85 -4.61 %
2005 5,178.38 -4.44 %
2006 5,102.08 -1.47 %
2007 5,064.25 -0.74 %
2008 4,950.32 -2.25 %
2009 5,360.54 8.29 %
2010 5,474.35 2.12 %
2011 5,672.56 3.62 %



http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=production

What are you a MORON ? As soon as a permit is issued oil doesn't squirt out of the ground the next day. Look at the drop in Federal land drilling permits numbers by your man Oblamea.
 

gmacbeef

Well-known member
gmacbeef said:
Oldtimer said:
It appears as tho GW was blowing smoke and only approving drilling permits on dry holes-- as ever since Obama has taken office- the US production of oil has increased....


year production change
1980 8,597.00 NA
1981 8,572.00 -0.29 %
1982 8,649.00 0.90 %
1983 8,688.00 0.45 %
1984 8,879.00 2.20 %
1985 8,971.00 1.04 %
1986 8,680.00 -3.24 %
1987 8,349.14 -3.81 %
1988 8,140.00 -2.50 %
1989 7,613.00 -6.47 %
1990 7,355.31 -3.38 %
1991 7,416.55 0.83 %
1992 7,171.12 -3.31 %
1993 6,846.67 -4.52 %
1994 6,661.58 -2.70 %
1995 6,559.64 -1.53 %
1996 6,464.52 -1.45 %
1997 6,451.59 -0.20 %
1998 6,251.83 -3.10 %
1999 5,881.46 -5.92 %
2000 5,821.60 -1.02 %
2001 5,801.40 -0.35 %
2002 5,745.55 -0.96 %
2003 5,680.70 -1.13 %
2004 5,418.85 -4.61 %
2005 5,178.38 -4.44 %
2006 5,102.08 -1.47 %
2007 5,064.25 -0.74 %
2008 4,950.32 -2.25 %
2009 5,360.54 8.29 %
2010 5,474.35 2.12 %
2011 5,672.56 3.62 %



http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=production

What are you a MORON ? As soon as a permit is issued oil doesn't squirt out of the ground the next day.And what were OIL PRICES during those years ? Gas prices have DOUBLED since Sorry Ass took office , so it makes sense that if you had a well maybe you would pump more oil .......... Look at the drop in Federal land drilling permits numbers by your man Oblamea.
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
gmacbeef said:
What are you a MORON ? As soon as a permit is issued oil doesn't squirt out of the ground the next day. Look at the drop in Federal land drilling permits numbers by your man Oblamea.


I, and others, have tried to explain this to him before. He doesn't get it.

I don't even think he knows what "exploration' means.
 
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