Who Will win?

[Steve]

will a conservative of moderate win the GOP...

the answer is in the primary calendar.. " the calendar picks the candidate"..

January 3, 2012 Iowa Caucus — moderate state.

January 10, 2012 New Hampshire Primary — moderate to liberal state

January 21, 2012 South Carolina Primary — moderate to conservative state

January 31, 2012 Florida Primary — moderate state
February 4, 2012 Nevada Caucus — moderate state
February 7, 2012 Colorado and Minnesota Caucuses (non-binding) moderate and liberal state —
February 11, 2012 Final Day for Maine Caucuses (non-binding) — liberal state

February 28, 2012 Arizona -- conservative state
and Michigan Primaries — liberal state

March 6, 2012 Super Tuesday:
AK, conservative state.
GA, conservative state
ID, conservative state
MA, liberal state
ND, conservative state
OK, conservative state
TN, moderate state
TX, conservative state
VA, moderate state
VT — liberal state
March 10, 2012 Kansas Caucus — conservative state

March 13, 2012 Alabama and Mississippi Primaries, conservative states
Hawaii Caucus — liberal state
March 17, 2012 Missouri Caucus — moderate state

March 20, 2012 Illinois Primary — liberal state
March 24, 2012 Louisiana Primary moderate conservative state —

so far.. the score.. conservative states are marginally ahead of moderate states which is marginally ahead of liberal states..

since liberal states and moderate states will lean moderate.. they have an almost 2-1 advantage over a conservative state..

(this does not account for delegates per state so the calendar could still lean slightly conservative)..