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Young voters flock to Dems

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Anonymous

Guest
Assessing the presidential results in Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic leaders see signs that young voters are flocking to their party and away from the Republicans. Of the 65,230 young people ages 17 to 29 who participated in the Iowa caucuses January 3, 52,580 caucused for Democrats while only 12,650 caucused for the Republicans.

That's a more than 4-to-1 advantage for the Democrats, party leaders point out.

"In total, 22 percent of Democratic caucusgoers were young people, an increase from 17 percent in 2004 and 9 percent in 2000," according to a study of the recent balloting by the Democratic National Committee provided to U.S. News. "In contrast, only 11 percent of the Republican caucusgoers were young people." In New Hampshire, the Democratic analysis shows, youth turnout "surged to 37 percent this year, from 18 percent in 2004 and 28 percent in 2000," says the study.

"Sixty-one percent of youth voters supported Democrats over Republicans. That's 43,753 young people going for Democrats and only 28,288 young people going for Republicans." Of course, the results had a lot to do with the presidential candidates and public perceptions of them. For example, Democrat Barack Obama inspired special enthusiasm among young voters. If he loses the nomination, it's possible that the enthusiasm will decline. It's also possible, Republican strategists say, that the eventual GOP nominee will find a way to motivate young people by next fall's election.

Could the Republican party really be wiped out in one generation?
 
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Anonymous

Guest
ff said:
Assessing the presidential results in Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic leaders see signs that young voters are flocking to their party and away from the Republicans. Of the 65,230 young people ages 17 to 29 who participated in the Iowa caucuses January 3, 52,580 caucused for Democrats while only 12,650 caucused for the Republicans.

That's a more than 4-to-1 advantage for the Democrats, party leaders point out.

"In total, 22 percent of Democratic caucusgoers were young people, an increase from 17 percent in 2004 and 9 percent in 2000," according to a study of the recent balloting by the Democratic National Committee provided to U.S. News. "In contrast, only 11 percent of the Republican caucusgoers were young people." In New Hampshire, the Democratic analysis shows, youth turnout "surged to 37 percent this year, from 18 percent in 2004 and 28 percent in 2000," says the study.

"Sixty-one percent of youth voters supported Democrats over Republicans. That's 43,753 young people going for Democrats and only 28,288 young people going for Republicans." Of course, the results had a lot to do with the presidential candidates and public perceptions of them. For example, Democrat Barack Obama inspired special enthusiasm among young voters. If he loses the nomination, it's possible that the enthusiasm will decline. It's also possible, Republican strategists say, that the eventual GOP nominee will find a way to motivate young people by next fall's election.

Could the Republican party really be wiped out in one generation?

YEP--GW's "legacy"....
 

Steve

Well-known member
Could the Republican party really be wiped out in one generation?


" "If you're not Liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not Conservative when you're 35, you have no brain." "
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
It's true that older voters are a more solid voting bloc than younger voters. (Voters who consider Social Security a priority election item trust Dems more than Republicans. And that's generally the older voters.) But young voters are the future of the party. While some of them will switch as they get older, there's a study somewhere showing that the party a youngster votes in for the first time is the party he's likely going to stick with for the rest of his voting life. If that holds true, the Republican Party is in deep do do.
 

Steve

Well-known member
ff
there's a study somewhere showing that the party a youngster votes in for the first time is the party he's likely going to stick with for the rest of his voting life. If that holds true, the Republican Party is in deep do do.

with out solid numbers it is hard to argue with "a study" so I went and found a study..."Partisanship: A Lifelong Loyalty that Develops Early"

"two-thirds still identify with the same party they first voted for"..

so if two thirds remain in their party... that would indicate that 33% change...

so in effect the republicans with a smaller youth base actually gain more later...

the republicans have 60% of the youth vote to gain from or 33% of the non-republican youth will later become republicans..


30% - 13% + 20% = 37%

where as the dems have more to lose..

40% - 20% + 13% = 33%

and before you say my math is wrong.. I factored in the independent vote... I just simplified the answer to show how the large Democratic youth vote now favors the republican party later...

and your prediction of the demise of the party is a little to soon...
 
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