Abnormal Cattle Cycles

[Maple Leaf Angus]

The following link says that after 9 profitable years, the U.S. cattle herd is still not expanding. Rising costs are keeping a damper on things.

I read this week that the Canadian herd has shrunk in the past 2 years and it seems that the mentality is still less than positive from the BSE fallout.

Where is it heading? Based on your experience and perception, how do you read these indicators?


http://www.farmersoptions.com/index.cfm?show=4&id=19075

 

[Kathy]

Optimism is in short supply, and usually depends on the amount of moisture recieved and condition of hay and crops. Most ranchers and their wives have off farm jobs just to make ends meet.

Packers are picking away at feedlots, still using teeth for age verification and screwing sellers for animals that are "definitely" under 30 months, but packer says otherwise.

Most people are just riding the waves, praying for a return to fairness and value for their product. Dr. SB Prusiner will eventually get his way, all animals will be tested, and he will be a wealthy man.

What's the scoop on Creekstone's case?

 

[Kato]

Manitoba's cow herd dropped by 10% in the past year. Not due to smaller herds as much as herds disappearing completely. We've lost over 700 producers in the past year too. That's a lot considering we're not the biggest beef producer in the country by a long shot.

In our province it's heading towards people either raising cattle or grain, but not both, at least to the extent that it used to be. It used to be that almost everyone had some cattle, but not any more. You need to cover so much land to make it in the grain business that there's not enough manpower left to run a cow herd on the side any more. Besides, when grain prices rise, the old practice of getting value from your barley by putting it through calves doesn't make a lot of sense. As long as feed keeps rising, I think it'll keep a lid on the cattle numbers.

That's not necessarily a bad thing for those of us who stick it out as long as we keep our feet on the ground.

I wonder if having long periods of smaller margins would be better than the cycles where it's boom and bust, and if the bust happens at the wrong time you are in big big trouble? I remember some pretty hair raising times over the years. :shock: :shock: :shock: