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Drought ---> Herd decisions

L

Liveoak

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Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
573
Location
Texas
A lot of ranchers have experienced drought this year or are still experiencing it. When cattle prices are down and hay supplies are short ($'s), what do you base your decision on regarding what cattle to sell (assuming you do sell)?
 
Liveoak, I'm new at this game but facing just such decisions. We had a really tough summer (dry season) this past year and because our rainfall is so far behind that of last year's, I know the upcoming summer is going to be even tougher.

Because of an offer we've got to ensile a good volume of corn, I'm hoping I'll have what I need to get through, but just in case, I am going to reduce for the next few months the number of animals I've got on hand. I'm selling them now because they look their best at this time.

I'll be selling the oldest cows, the smallest-framed cows, and probably a number of the younger bulls I've got on hand. If in mid summer I see that I can handle more animals, I'll go back into the market and try to pick up animals that lack the traits I sold.
 
First ones to go here are the cows that give us any trouble. High-headed, hard to handle, run for the bush kinda cows go first. 2nd, the harder-doing cows that run themselves down, or ones that stay fat and wean a runt of a calf. 3rd would be cosmetics - crooked legs/feet, udders, etc.

I don't think I needed to mention dry/open, because they get culled regardless of conditions. I'm hoping for a day when the only thing I'm culling for is the cosmetics. Had that with our old herd of crossbreds, now we're going through the motions of rebuilding and re-culling with our Galloways. I really have to ask myself why somedays. For the days in between, my wife asks constantly. :lol:
 
sell those you don't like, for whatever reason. if you like them all, you'll just have to start picking a few of them apart. there are always some that are better than others
 
Along with the above mentioned, keep the 1st and 2nd cycle cows. Anything after that costs you money. If a calf is born 50 days after the first one, then come fall he will be 100 lbs lighter due to his age and if he is 75 days younger then he will be 150 lbs lighter. That ads up to a lot of money at $1/cwt
 
We have built in a yearling component to our operation partly for the threat of drought. Normally we will sell these in August (15-16 months old) but they can really be sold anytime from weaning on if need be.
On the cow front I'm maybe a bit contrary but because we have a breed that there is more demand for than females for sale we have another option. I shipped a small bunch of 1st and 2nd calvers in July to someone wishing to set up a herd - they have pastured them since July and I will pick the calves up at weaning at no charge. These were the bottom half of these age groups but they were still good young cows. That let us do better a lot better than cull price which is never good in a drought and i've plenty more youngstock coming on to replace them.
We will also cull heavily this fall older, poorer cows and replace some with good young breds - the difference between cull value and good bred cows tends to be narrow in a drought.
 
BRG said:
Along with the above mentioned, keep the 1st and 2nd cycle cows. Anything after that costs you money. If a calf is born 50 days after the first one, then come fall he will be 100 lbs lighter due to his age and if he is 75 days younger then he will be 150 lbs lighter. That ads up to a lot of money at $1/cwt
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more. I only keep replacements that are born in the first cycle.
 
i usually give them pickof the herd-adds a couple hundred to the selling price and you get all the big pretty underachievers culled at a premium. The last time i sent two loads sight unseen and took 7 back-two of the best black cows I've ever owned came back-i just sent him all our early bred cows that time. if your cows are any good shouldn't be that big a gap from top to bottom.
 
In some of the worst droughts we've hayed and grazed alot of wheat acres, and planted hay millet into no-till summerfallow and always got through without selling down. Also, try to never overgraze in the good years.
 
Not sure if this will help your decission...BUT every Thursday is the cattle sale here in Dalhart and I am use to seeing 15-25 LOADED semi trucks leaving.
This week Thursday AM there were only 10 at the truck wash and then Thursday night 7 of them were parked Empty off 285 next to the RR.
I only saw 1 5th wheel stock trailer with maybe 10 steer calves leaving the area Friday midmorning. There should have been lots more. I have been seeing more and more of the feed lots closing and the ones left are only half, if that full. I know there is only 1 feedlot left in Clayton and there is only one between here and there left open.
I havent been down 54 in more than a month so I cant say about those feedlots but I know there is not the cattle traffic there was 6 months ago.
 
The main reason, I would think, is because the biggest majority of Texas has already sold and hauled all their cattle to market. Most of which takes place in July and August. Some earlier in June even depending on when they start calving. But because of drought situations all over the state, people thinned out herds back in the early summer months. Sold off all the calves early too.

Now.....the worse of the drought stricken areas are gettin alot of rain. So therefore they are holdin onto what cows they have because the grass is growin, and there's moisture for winter graze planting. This time of year the salebarns aren't near as busy as they are earlier in the year anyway because of the time of year that we calve. They still have sales every week, but the numbers are way down.

For example....July 11, 2009 #s were 3656
Sept 26, 2009 #s were 2074
Feb 2009 #s were 1000
March 14, 2009 #s were 278
I'm sure Trinity man can give me numbers for this week, they aren't on the salebarn website yet.
 
Sorry but this is not due to cows already being sold. This is not normal ...if so then explain WHY feedlots are closing? The past 2 years it has been busy all 12 months and no feed lots have closed down "for the winter"
 
Scuttlebutt says that Gottsch lost over 33 million in the last quarter alone, despite selling the operations at Rosalia Kansas and the one south of Shreveport. They filled everything up for one last try, but if that doesn't work, put a fork in 'em, they are DONE.
 
loomixguy said:
Scuttlebutt says that Gottsch lost over 33 million in the last quarter alone, despite selling the operations at Rosalia Kansas and the one south of Shreveport. They filled everything up for one last try, but if that doesn't work, put a fork in 'em, they are DONE.
Click to expand...

Didn't he used to post on here?
 
Tighter Feedlot Numbers
by Julianne Johnston on 9/18/2009 6:47:00 AM

Traders expect tighter feedlot numbers... Traders are preparing for this afternoon's Cattle on Feed Report, to be released at 2:00 p.m. CT. The range of estimates for On Feed and Marketings are fairly tight, while expectations are extremely wide on Placements (once again). But more firms expect USDA to show a lower Placements figure compared to year-ago levels. Because some of the Placement expectations were "so high," the average trade guess is just above year-ago.

Report expectations
Avg. Trade Guess
Range

% of year-ago levels

On Feed
98.5% 97.0-100.6

Placements
100.9%
96.6-112.0

Marketings
95.3%
93.0-96.5


Taking into consideration that last month's Cattle on Feed Report showed Placements at 113% of year-ago levels, University of Missouri economist Ron Plain says he expects a figure close to 97% of year-ago as cattle
numbers are not sufficient enough to sustain a Placements rate very far above year-ago levels for an extended period of time. Plain says if his number is accurate, it would be the smallest Placements in August since 2005.

Add to that the higher cost of feed......n there ya have it.
 
Cattle Market Adjustments & Opportunities
09/11/2009 06:14PM
And so it is with cattle markets. Most of the past three years (or six if you start with BSE) have been a rollercoaster of shocks and changes, some short run in nature and some likely more permanent. Arguably the biggest of these and one that is likely more permanent is the change in feed prices. Although the massive initial shock waves of high corn prices have subsided a bit, the beef industry is still making adjustments to reestablish profitably in the industry, especially in the feedlot sector. The industry has made significant adjustments by changing the manner and timing of cattle feeding and has been helped by three consecutive large corn crops that are giving us currently the lowest corn prices that can reasonably be expected. Still feedlot profits remain elusive. Although feed costs have moderated in recent months, the global recession has produced weak beef and fed cattle prices resulting in continued feedlot losses. The pain is very real and the long term reality of reducing excess capacity (feedlots closing) is underway at this time. Nevertheless, there is some potential light at the end of tunnel.
Click to expand...
 
And so it goes that we get a wee taste of what the hog industry has gone through - at least on our side of the border, not sure about the US. Our Canadian hog producers were basically told by our Ag. Ministers that some may have to exit the industry in order to cut down the national sow herd. No "Thanks for your efforts", just "Don't let the door hit you in the @$$ on the way out".

Seems beef feedlots may be going the same way on both sides of the border. We thought we'd seen the worst of it last year when barley hit $5/bu and corn hit $8 or some ridiculous price on your side of the border. Now feed is cheaper, but prices for fats are in the tank. Will anyone in power ever admit that we have a broken system that needs radical change? Or do we just let the Cargill's get bigger and bigger with further consolidation of our food industry?
 
I have been through drought before. I am posting this to explain the farmer greed in our area. The last two years we have had excellent rain and grass. However if one wants grass for their cattle you can not get it.
I had to move replacment heifers from a farm I had rented for the past 6 years, I had known the man for 30 years and thought I was pretty secure.
The grass is boot top high which is very rare this time of the year.
Asked 10 farmers to rent grass all said no. They have baled hay and some have actually brushed hogged there pastures so the just look pretty.
One fellow that kicked me off a pasture hayed it then asked me to buy the hay if I would not he was going to send it to Texas in oct when they start buying as he said.lol
Plenty and over supply of grass and hay but my replacments are in the correl and I have been fedding them for the past month. On dads home place he boarders four farms one is a rent pature that we can not get. The others once were cattle farms now have went idel and several new land owners ( now divided) are letting the land grow back to brush thats over 3,000 acres that is divided now just so people can have land to look at.
Times have changed just in the past 5 years. A man I have known for a while asked me to buy his last cut hay for 15 per bale. He is not making money and will not rent his pasture or sell it. Just wants it to look pretty.
So one can have all the grass in the world and the greedy farmers will still try to f you out of your cattle.
 

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