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Is there still a cattle cycle, Sandhusker?

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pointrider

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Merry Christmas Sandhusker and everyone else out there!

I would appreciate your opinion on whether or not there is still a cattle cycle in the U.S. cow-calf industry.
 
Hey folks, looks like Sandhusker is busy playing Santa today which is great. I'm sure he will get around to my post before too long. Meanwhile, it appears a lot of you are "viewing" the post. If you would like to state your opinion about the cattle cycle I'm sure he won't mind if you jump in ahead of him. ????????????
 
Have just a minute while tractor is warming up. Started out in pick-up feeding and too much snow during the night. My personal opinion is the cattle cycle as we knew it is gone, maybe for ever. Between the economy and the packers we are in for a wild ride.
 
Thanks for your comment ranch hand. Let's say you are right as fas as the cycle in the U.S. is concerned because of the reasons you stated. What about the global cycle? Has there been a global cattle cycle? If you believe there has been a global cycle, what is the current state of the global cycle?
 
I decided to add a little more wood to the fire since a lot of you are beginning to "view" this thread. A report was issued recently that states that Brazil saw an increase in illegal deforestation this year after three straight years of slight decline. Environmentalists always include commodity prices when they give reasons for the deforestation of the rainforest (usually burning) (high prices = more burning), and it is pretty commonly known that newly deforested land is usually used for cattle ranching. Then, after the land is used a couple of years and the clean off is complete, it is most often sold and used for growing soybeans. After that if cattle prices are still good, more land is cleared and put in production. Brazil produces grass-fed beef on all that deforested land.

At least 4 times I have seen an ad on TV from the car maker, Acura. The Acura TSX to be more specific. Basically, it says, "Imagine sitting in a red leather booth and eating a rare, grass-fed steak. That's the feeling you get when you drive an Acura TSX." Has anyone else out there seen this ad? Is this a conspiracy between Acura and the Brazilian beef industry and JBS? If there has been a global cattle cycle, how are these factors (illegal deforestation, auto ads, etc.) affecting it?

In the "new global industry", what is it going to take for the U.S. cow-calf producer to make money?
 
8) I can explain the Canadian Cattle Cycle for you . Well in the last 10 years we've had 5 poor years followed with 5 %&^#$ poor years with a projection of 5 more really #$%^# poor years until the cycle turns around :!: I laugh at all these economists who project a year long recesssion that will hurt the country. Canadian Cattlemen have had a 5 year recession so far with no end in sight :roll:
 
Hey cowzilla! Perhaps R-CALF knew about the Brazil-Acura-JBS conspiracy before anyone else, and, in the smoky room behind the closed door, decided the way to buy some time to figure out their next move was to run all the Canadian producers out of business. Do you think that's what happened?

There are more questions, also. Such as, why do the people in the ad agency who create Acura ads believe that eating a rare, grass-fed steak is the new "in thing and highly cool" thing to do? What does all this mean to the grain-fed industry? Is R-CALF secretly behind the move to grass-fed beef? Is there another conspiracy going between R-CALF and JBS? Did R-CALF tell JBS, "Look, we'll do our part to push this thing to grass-fed, but you have to agree that you will buy all your U.S. cattle from us once the switch is made. After all, most of us are in areas where the finest grass-fed beef can be produced."

See what I mean? All kinds of questions -------------
 
North Dakota State University has announced its Central Grasslands Research Extension Center's 2009 Grass-N-Beef Research Review. The date for the upcoming meeting is 28 JAN 2009.

Couldn't help but notice that the program topics include "Niche and specialty beef marketing opportunities." It will be interesting to learn more about what this topic is all about. If I were a betting man ----------

By the way, did you read about New Zealand making a grass-fed launch into Japan, "a traditional grain-fed customer"? New Zealand is claiming "superior quality." Is this a conspiracy between JBS and Brazil and New Zealand to get some of the attention away from Brazil for a while? How does R-CALF fit into this? After all, if Japan goes grass-fed, what does that mean to the grain-fed industry in the U.S.? Didn't I just see something along the lines of "expect fewer beef exports from the U.S. in 2009"? Maybe the government is in on it, too. ????????????

Have any of you had any discussions with the local auction barn about pricing grass-fed steers and heifers (assuming there are going to continue to be a few animals going to the local barn for a few more years)? Will any market-ready steers go through a local barn, or will they all go direct to packers?

See what I mean? Lot's of questions --------------
 
In my area you could grass feed or grain as there are Manitobans allready producing grass fed product. It all boils down to lowest cost of production, doesn't matter where on Earth you produce the product. If grain prices tank cattle feeders will feed grain or cheap grain by products.Local Auction Barns like the way things are done now cow calf guys sell off pasture to feedlots but if cow calf guys grass finnish and sell direct to packers a lot of guys miss getting there cut of the pie :wink: Funny thing we worry about feeding out calves to grade for slaughter yet most guys will tell you the best beef is a heiferette thats lost her calf and has not likley seen much if any grain in her lifespan :!


P.S. If all Canadian production was halted it would not affect prices in U.S.A.
 
You got that right. We may just prove it if things don't turn around soon. :roll: :roll: :roll: We were selling a couple of open cows last week, and were told that 25% of Manitoba's cattle are already gone. I heard it again from several other sources since then, except that one of them said that number applied to the whole country, not just Manitoba.

How ya doing Cowzilla? Was Santa good to you? :santa:
 
Was there ever a cattle cycle? Yep, you betcha. It went hand in hand with the grain cycle and the weather cycle. 7 or 8 year cycle. Other than the occasional blip over the past hundred years, you could pretty much count on it.

There were cycles within the year as well. At certain times you could count on higher feeder and fed prices with prices cycling down and up throughout the year at predictable times (Dec high, March high).

Now? No way in hell. BSE BS, the US Government's MCOOL, and concentration of packers have completely destroyed the cycle. I've never seen feed prices drop, the Canadian dollar drop AND cattle drop all in the same time span before. I've also never seen Dec price offerings lower than September/October price offerings (usually the lowest in my area).

Will we ever get a cycle back? Eventually, if the US government quits screwing with the cattle industry. But everytime the government starts pawing around in our industry, it throws prices all out of whack. You'd think the whiner industry groups like R-Quack would learn that...

Rod
 
Wow, Ben H! That is so awesome! It's not quite the same ad I saw I don't believe. If not, then that tells us they are using the red leather and grass-fed theme in a series. That's pretty awesome, too. Thanks so much for finding and posting the video. Like the ad, you are too cool.

Do you know how big the Amazon rainforest is that is still standing? The size of Europe. A lot of cattle are run on illegally deforested land, and the government has not been able to do much about it so far. How much would it help your bottom line, folks, if you could run cattle on land that only cost the clearing and planting? Anyway, there is an awful lot of land that hasn't been cleared yet, and, the higher the price of beef, the more land will be cleared. I believe this is an important factor for beef producers in all other countries to consider. Perhaps some of the industry's collective effort needs to go toward formal protests about the use of illegally deforested land for producing beef in Brazil. What do you think? Do you think there is a chance that more of that beef will be making its way to the U.S. in the future with JBS being headquartered in Brazil? It's already going to many countries around the world, now they are making "super cool" ads about grass-fed beef that is probably influencing a lot of people who are on the fence at this time.

Can producers and feeders really switch back and forth to grain and grain products for feeding when prices drop if the public is demanding grass-fed?
 
Thanks for the great comment Diamond S. Most of us can only imagine what you folks in Canada are going through. It's unfortunate for you the way things have worked out, but, to be honest, it's not the first time a commodity has gotten into trouble in a certain country by being too dependent on export trade. Perhaps Canadian producers were somewhat justified by being told "we need your cattle down here" only to be turned on by some when the mix of things in the world changed (including NAFTA, CAFTA, BSE, Brazil, Japan, Korea, Australia, Tyson, JBS etc.) and U.S. producers came under new pressures.

You folks will adapt and adjust as you learn the new rules of the game, and I believe there will be a beef industry in Canada for a long time to come. But it has been and will continue to be painful for a while as you adjust to the new realities. Kinda like today's U.S. economy. I'd like to ask you what you believe will be the most important things a cow-calf producer must do in Canada to continue to be one of the survivors as you go into the future in your new industry. If you have the time. If not, thanks again for your great comment.

Even if a way is found to keep beef that was produced on illegally deforested land in Brazil from coming to the U.S. and the U.K. to name a couple of places, what is the right approach if their answer down in Brazil is to simply use that beef in Brazil which would free up more "legally produced" beef to be exported. So far, government programs that may attempt to keep beef produced on illegally deforested land from going to feed yards and processing plants have not been effective, or the deforestation for the purpose of producing more beef would not continue as it is. Should there be something like a new World Beef Council to attack unfair production and trade practices around the world, or should it be left to individual nations to do whatever they choose to do through WTO et al? Just a thought.
 
You bring up an interesting conversation about clearing land. I'm sitting in one of the original areas cleared in this country. We started with an industry clearing trees for ship masts and lumber for England. Then after one of the wars (Frend Indian maybe), some people were given land that they started clearing. This town was founded in 1736. One of the biggest property owners is a decendent, with the name, of the first settler, Capt. John Phinney. They own a lumber yard and hundreds if not thousands of acres of forest land they won't sell. I have a 1940 flight photo (got a copy from NRCS) of all land we work, almost every field in this town touched another at that time. Back in the 50's or 60's people were paid to plant trees and take land out of production. Now 90% of our State is forest, the replanting is insignificant to the fact that the majority of Central/Northern and Northern Maine was never cleared. What was clear cut was allowed to re-grow. It's mostly owned by paper companies.
We have some land we could clear I've been wanting to figure out the economics on. A nearby biotech that my company leases a facility has hundreds of goats and thousands of rabbits. They needed more land to spread waste on so they had about 17 acres cleared and stumped at a break even, then they had to pick rocks and seed it.
I have looked in to forestry mowers on heavy duty skid loaders and excavators and hired them for a few acres, but you're talking $900-$1700 per day.
 
Hey Ben,

Most of the illegally deforested land in Brazil is cleared by burning. The gun-toten' outlaws just simply light a torch and set fire to the trees. Most of this is done during the "dry season" but not always. Roads are chained, etc., to keep the authorities out, and, if the authorities cut the chains to go in they still have to deal with hired guns many times.

What would happen in your area if you just went out and set fire to your trees to clear the land, chained the roads into your place and armed yourself with a small arsenal?

What is the proper way, in your opinion, to deal with the situation in Brazil which is definitely affecting the global beef industry?
 
The short answer, I don't know. When they cleared New England they used to burn the stumps out. The Indians used to set large fires to maintain grazing land for the buffalo herds, so I've read. Part of me says we have a lot of land in this country that isn't being utilized, a lot of land that has grown back up with brush and trees as well. I can't count the number of times I've found old barbed wire fences in the woods that were likely a pasture at one point, granted that people used to fence their property with it. I think there are things we can do to change our direction and compete, first thing is to study the New Zealand model and get the government out of the business of keeping agriculture afloat. It's a touch situation because there are issues with Natioanl Security and self dependency with the food supply. I'm not totally convinced clearing the land down there is a bad thing, the methods could be argued, but how is it differnt then our ancestors settling this country? If you are worried about the environmental impact, expose it, get pictures. Compare to how we do it, educate the customer. With COOL labeling people can have a choice.
 
Ben H said:
The short answer, I don't know. When they cleared New England they used to burn the stumps out. The Indians used to set large fires to maintain grazing land for the buffalo herds, so I've read. Part of me says we have a lot of land in this country that isn't being utilized, a lot of land that has grown back up with brush and trees as well. I can't count the number of times I've found old barbed wire fences in the woods that were likely a pasture at one point, granted that people used to fence their property with it. I think there are things we can do to change our direction and compete, first thing is to study the New Zealand model and get the government out of the business of keeping agriculture afloat. It's a touch situation because there are issues with Natioanl Security and self dependency with the food supply. I'm not totally convinced clearing the land down there is a bad thing, the methods could be argued, but how is it differnt then our ancestors settling this country? If you are worried about the environmental impact, expose it, get pictures. Compare to how we do it, educate the customer. With COOL labeling people can have a choice.
Click to expand...

There was alot of land cleared here 40 years ago the same way.I would let them be if they want to clear the ground of trees let them.Lumber,pulp firewood or just bull doze it into windrows let it dry and torch it.Hell if we want a new ballpark in this country we'll destroy what ever is in the way.No matter if it's someone'else's property just kick them out for the (Greater Good) and get to it.At least the people of Brazil are working towards a goal.If everyone wants trees go plant some I live in an area full of tree's and nothing pisses me off more than seeing a good piece of farmgroud planted to trees.Moderation in all things..
 
I hear that, I hate seeing these forests of Red Pines in perfectly straight rows.

Speaking of clearning land, is it still possible for Farmers/Ranchers to get a hold of dynamite for clearing stumps? Or do we have to resort to Ammonium Nitrate and Diesel? Seriously, what better way to get rid of stumps. I don't know what the licensing process is, but I guess I'd be willing to track where it all goes. Maybe it's not worth it.
 

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