Is there still a cattle cycle, Sandhusker?

[pointrider]

Good to see Sandhusker back in the saddle - so to speak. Hi Sandhusker. I would still appreciate knowing your opinion about the cattle cycle. The concensus so far seems to be that there is no longer a cattle cycle in the U.S. and Canada. Perhaps you believe there is still a cycle. If not, what are the bankers telling the ranchers these days when the ranchers go in for annual or semi-annual operating loans? How does a banker evaluate a rancher in the absence of a cycle which used to be part of long-term planning and financing? Looking at today's industry and the many new factors in play (e.g. NAFTA, CAFTA, BSE, the U.S. economy, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, Korea, Japan, New Zealand, the push to grass-fed beef), is it going to come down to only the ranchers who own their land outright and/or have USFS/BLM leases that have been recently renewed? I would really like to hear your opinion. Thanks in advance.

 

[Denny]

I hear that, I hate seeing these forests of Red Pines in perfectly straight rows.

Speaking of clearning land, is it still possible for Farmers/Ranchers to get a hold of dynamite for clearing stumps? Or do we have to resort to Ammonium Nitrate and Diesel? Seriously, what better way to get rid of stumps. I don't know what the licensing process is, but I guess I'd be willing to track where it all goes. Maybe it's not worth it.

I bet you'd have a tough time getting ahold of either items'We hire a liscensed explosive's expert if we need a dam blown.As far a tree's go push them over before you cut them off they will pry the stump out at the same time.


Why is it all anyone knows how to plant are pines?If I was to plant any tree's they would be white oaks and maple.

 

[Ben H]

Last night I found a place rent one these, I emailed them for the rental cost. Same kind of unit as the guy I hired this spring.

http://www.hydrograsscorp.com/fecon_rentals.html

I would like to plant a grove of Black Locust for some fence posts down the road.

 

[cowzilla]

You got that right. We may just prove it if things don't turn around soon. :roll: :roll: :roll: We were selling a couple of open cows last week, and were told that 25% of Manitoba's cattle are already gone. I heard it again from several other sources since then, except that one of them said that number applied to the whole country, not just Manitoba.

How ya doing Cowzilla? Was Santa good to you? :santa:

I was a good boy again this year so Santa rewarded me well :wink:

 

[Sandhusker]

Good to see Sandhusker back in the saddle - so to speak. Hi Sandhusker. I would still appreciate knowing your opinion about the cattle cycle. The concensus so far seems to be that there is no longer a cattle cycle in the U.S. and Canada. Perhaps you believe there is still a cycle. If not, what are the bankers telling the ranchers these days when the ranchers go in for annual or semi-annual operating loans? How does a banker evaluate a rancher in the absence of a cycle which used to be part of long-term planning and financing? Looking at today's industry and the many new factors in play (e.g. NAFTA, CAFTA, BSE, the U.S. economy, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, Korea, Japan, New Zealand, the push to grass-fed beef), is it going to come down to only the ranchers who own their land outright and/or have USFS/BLM leases that have been recently renewed? I would really like to hear your opinion. Thanks in advance.

I think there is still a cattle cycle. There are always events that disrupt it, lengthen it, shorten it, etc....

We don't factor the cycle in annual plans. We go by cash flow.

 

[RobertMac]

Cattle cycle, as we knew it, is dead.

Increasing concentration in the food industry by a few global corporations.
Relatively cheap transportation cost.
"Free trade" access to the world's largest economy.

Pointrider, you promoting grassfed beef????? :wink: :wink: :roll:

 

[pointrider]

Thanks for the answer, Sandhusker. I agree with you. There are plenty of events going on to disrupt and distort the cycle for a while, but I believe there is a cycle. The question then becomes, realizing there are even more things these days for a rancher to contend with, what is the secret to survival?

And, RobertMac, no, I am not promoting grass-fed beef. I know it may sound like it, but I just wanted to get things going here and try to get some people to think about it. I see grass-fed as a definite, growing movement, and I don't believe people who buy grass-fed beef in the future will be that easily persuaded to switch back to grain-fed because it's not just the beef. It's a mindset. It's a movement. It's being promoted as a cool, green thing to do. And with Brazil and Australia and New Zealand coming on strong with their promotions and their offerings, I think there will be plenty of effort going forth out there to get more people into that mindset.

Also, biofuels are playing a part. Oil and grain prices may be back down now, but do you think they will stay down forever? There are just so many things pushing more and more beef in the world to grass-fed, I just think that people need to be thinking about it more, and how this situation is impacting or will impact their operations and plans for the future.

Remember what Sandhusker said. There is still a cattle cycle. If he is right, then there will continue to be a Top Third in profitablility and a Bottom Third in profitability. The Top Third people will make it unless a death or selling out or something like that plays a part, and the Bottom Third won't.

Ask yourself this questions. Are there fewer producers today in the U.S. and Canada than there were 5 years ago? Will there be fewer 5 years from now? This kind of thinking is what I am really promoting.

 

[pointrider]

One more thing, RobertMac.

Did you watch the Acura video that Ben H posted in this thread? If not, please watch it. Notice that the setting is a "big, cool city with lot's of glittering lights at night and a jillion people." Also, "a whole gang of young, affluent professional types getting together in that red leather booth with even a sexual tone thrown in by having the guy who was driving the new Acura exchanging glances with a beautiful woman in the group."

The red leather and the grass-fed steak is the "new, cool thing to do in the big city." Acura is playing to the masses and using the yuppie professionals to make their car look cool. How would you promote grain-fed beef to this market? I doubt if you would want to use GM or Ford. Maybe Toyota and Honda could be persuaded to participate in some grass-fed ads. What do you think? By the way, are you promoting grass-fed beef?

 

[Mike]

There will always be a "cattle cycle".

Except that it has been manipulated by the importing packers to their advantage.

Ranchers will no longer be able to play that game.

 

[RobertMac]

"The red leather and the grass-fed steak is the "new, cool thing to do in the big city."
"It's being promoted as a cool, green thing to do."

Yes, I saw the commercial some time ago and the reference to the grassfed steak reached out and slapped me...because I raise and sell grassfed beef(we spell it 'grassfed' in the biz). :wink: It's nice to be up there with sex and "green" as an advertisement gimmick!!

There will always be a "cattle cycle".

Except that it has been manipulated by the importing packers to their advantage.

Ranchers will no longer be able to play that game.

Thanks, Mike, you always make my points better than I do.
North American producers can play the game the way it is being structured which is toward lowest price. The only place the global packers can cut cost to be able to reduce the price of beef to the consumer is by reducing cattle procurement cost...South American beef. Beef will always be the highest cost protein...we have to give consumers reasons other than price to buy our product.