Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle
- Thread starter Brad S
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Brad S
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That's a fact rr. Pprm or Denny mentioned that lenders will pull in the feeders and make them only pay what will hedge
Faster horses
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http://www.northernlivestockvideo.com/catalog/?lot=26067&saleid=983
A video of some customers calves that will sell on Northern Video on Monday. What a set of cows and calves! They do a really good job managing their cowherd. Will be interesting to see what they bring. The guy who bought them last year has expressed interest in them again. These calves are the ultimate in healthy.
A video of some customers calves that will sell on Northern Video on Monday. What a set of cows and calves! They do a really good job managing their cowherd. Will be interesting to see what they bring. The guy who bought them last year has expressed interest in them again. These calves are the ultimate in healthy.
Big Muddy rancher
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Faster horses said:
I like those cows.
RBT
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Aw, what a difference a couple months makes. Feeder futures up, corn down. What's everyones thoughts and plans now?
Soapweed
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We sold 82 steers yesterday (August 9th) on the Western Video Market sale at Cheyenne. Base weight is 600 pounds for October 17, 2016 delivery, right off the cow. They brought $161.50 per cwt, which is more than I thought they might. We are happy with the deal.
Faster horses
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Congratulations on a good sale, Soapweed.
Friends sold theirs on Northern in Billings back in May. 620#, Oct delivery for $146.00. Of course the freight makes a difference,
but it does look like the market has strengthened. Makes us glad for everyone!
Friends sold theirs on Northern in Billings back in May. 620#, Oct delivery for $146.00. Of course the freight makes a difference,
but it does look like the market has strengthened. Makes us glad for everyone!
Brad S
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Looks like summer heat got everyone current - a usual pattern. $3 corn will result in heavy carcasses, just waiting on a catylist and maybe some dirty pool by packers. This is a good opportunity if you're long.
Some say expansion is over. Most of my friends are waiting for cheaper calves to get serious about expansion and renewal. I don't think expansion is close to over.
$3 corn is unsustainable, but "16" is going to be huge. Can "17" be yet another record crop? I think "17" will be smaller dictated by acres. But for now, enjoy cheap corn with not huge carcasses.
Some say expansion is over. Most of my friends are waiting for cheaper calves to get serious about expansion and renewal. I don't think expansion is close to over.
$3 corn is unsustainable, but "16" is going to be huge. Can "17" be yet another record crop? I think "17" will be smaller dictated by acres. But for now, enjoy cheap corn with not huge carcasses.
Glad to hear of the decent feeder cattle prices. The Cash Market for fed cattle looks to be about $1.15-$1.18. So, about $600 available to feed them. You'll have to figure your own Cost of Gain. It looks like some room to me.
WB
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The bad thing about cheap corn is it makes for cheap meat. Hogs convert 3/1 and chickens 2/1 so we are going to be competing with some pretty cheap protein for a while.
Mike
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WB said:
Not only do hogs & chickens convert feed much more efficiently than do individual cattle. The number of progeny per female per year is astronomically a higher number. I wonder how the lbs. of meat per female production in a year compares...........
P.S. Chickens lay about 330 eggs per year.
gcreekrch
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Mike said:
Then eat every egg you can people............ :wink:
Did any of you read the WSJ link? We all gripe about futures traders, but are we really ready to do without the board? That's what is being proposed, the way I read the article - no more contracts after October 2017. Am I reading that wrong?
True that paper cattle traders can wreck our markets short-term, but don't they give us a little direction to look to long-term? Even with no intent to hedge, I still look at what feeder contracts are going for in the out months when I buy calves and I assume that others do that, as well. Are we really ready to do away with the board?
True that paper cattle traders can wreck our markets short-term, but don't they give us a little direction to look to long-term? Even with no intent to hedge, I still look at what feeder contracts are going for in the out months when I buy calves and I assume that others do that, as well. Are we really ready to do away with the board?
Brad S
Well-known member
Texas & Traveler, you raise one of the most important issues in the industry. How to fairly price cattle, and I'm fresh out of an answer. I feel like the recent insolvency for feeders has a lot to do with inaccurate if not manipulated price discovery. I used to live across the river from old Doug Wildin - a fantastic intellect. He's campaigned for 40 years about short sellers driving down the market. His plan was, you can't short what you don't own. I asked him if it's that easy, let's just go long up the market? Doug promised me we didn't have strong enough hands.
In between the cowman and the packer has been the feeder. The feeder has been sodomised almost to extinction. I wonder if the cowman will suffer similarly when we have 4% more cows and sustainably priced corn.
We used to have a small local packer called Winchesters. They needed us and we needed them and the arrangement worked. There were hundreds of local packers in the beef belt, and I think beef was a better product. CAB & USPB are a solid effort to offset consolidation.
In between the cowman and the packer has been the feeder. The feeder has been sodomised almost to extinction. I wonder if the cowman will suffer similarly when we have 4% more cows and sustainably priced corn.
We used to have a small local packer called Winchesters. They needed us and we needed them and the arrangement worked. There were hundreds of local packers in the beef belt, and I think beef was a better product. CAB & USPB are a solid effort to offset consolidation.
I guess the question is why would anyone be surprised by any of this? The problems of unbridled packer concentration, captive supply cattle, lack of transparency in the market, complete and total disregard for the Packers and Stockyards Act have been completely ignored by some of the groups who are supposed to be representing cattle producers best interest.