Dry and Drier
Steve Cornett
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There is nothing like a drought to take the wind out of a cowman's sails, and there is a lot of drought around the U.S. cattle country this year.
It looks like it may hang around a while longer, too.
In much of cow country, July and August saw a larger increase in cow culling and early weaning than most cattle people had hoped for. One cow plant in Texas was running double shifts trying to keep up with cows being hauled sometimes hundreds of miles to find a market.
The economists said at mid-summer that the sale of all those cows had slowed, but not halted, the herd rebuilding. Cattle-Fax's Randy Blach said in late July that conditions in much of the country had provided homes for many of the cows forced off by short groceries in the Great Plains.
Still, a huge number of cattle operations were being impacted. A poll of 300 cattle producers conducted in late July by AgWeb (www.agweb.com) found a lot of concern in the cattle country and not much readiness.
The poll was hardly scientific, but did provide an insight into the minds of cattlemen. E-mails were sent to AgWeb subscribers who indicated they own cattle, and the first 300 responses were tabulated.
Of those who responded, only 6% said they were not bothered by drought, another 20% ranked their drought problems as a 2 or 3 on a scale of 1 to 5.
More than half had serious problems with moisture —34.7% claimed a score of 4, and 39.3% said they were in extreme drought.
More than 70% of respondents said the current situation was worse than previous dry spells they've encountered. More than half of respondents said they would need more than 8" of rain to offset their mid-summer condition; 19.7% need more than 12" to catch up.
And they indicated there wasn't a lot they could do about it. Two-thirds said they would delay capital expenditures on their operations. A full 83% said they would have to provide supplemental feed earlier than normal this year. Another 69.3% were expecting to buy extra commercial feed this year. Less than one-third had been able to rent extra land to spread their herds thinner.
Just more than half of the respondents said they had or would wean calves earlier than they had originally planned. And 43.7% said they had been forced to sell breeding cows, with 38% of those selling off one-quarter or more of their cow herds.
Only 25.3% of respondents had planted and harvested extra hay in anticipation of the short feed supplies this winter—a number that has to be bullish on hay prices.
We asked for comments and what suppliers could do to help. Some of the results were a little wrenching.
Said one:
"I live in southwest Oklahoma. We have had 3½" of rain since last October. That's nine months. We lost our wheat crop. . .no rain for spring grass to grow and our cotton crop is a disaster. I have been in the registered cattle business for 26 years and I had to sell all my cattle in July due to no grass and water. I couldn't pencil a profit if I have to start feeding in July. At this point, I don't think we will even have wheat pasture because of no subsoil moisture."
Another said:
"I don't know that it is their responsibility to do anything, except that they are going to feel the crunch just like the feed man, the hay man, the bull man, the equipment guy.
"They are going to all be hurting if I am hurting. I won't have the money to spend on their products. I won't have the numbers in the herd to need as much. If something doesn't happen and happen soon, there will be a lot of people selling lighter-weight, earlier-weaned calves at an earlier market date, which is going be a big hit to the bottom line for me.
"There are no prospects of planting wheat because it is too dry. Ponds are dry or sludgy. Grass is gone down to nubs without ever seeding. If those roots are too close to the top of the ground with no reserve when the freezes come, the grass isn't coming back next year either. Nobody wants to give up pasture for rent or they want an outrageous price because they know how bad we need it, but that pasture is not in good shape either.
"The town guy with the real estate job or the doctor or lawyer job is the only one who can afford to pay those leases. I will be selling good, registered, bred, medium-age cows in a month when I get those calves off. That's something I have never had to do before.
"But last year many pastures burnt off. Year after year, you just can't keep it up. Can't find hay, or the quality of it sucks. Those who have it, need it themselves or are hoarding for higher prices. Freight, whether hauling yourself or hiring it done, is higher because of diesel. That includes the freight on your hay purchase or hauling it in from your own field, cattle sale freight or planting fuel.
"During these dusty stressful times, I am not going to drop back on health requirements, but I won't need as much because they will be gone quicker and I will be cutting back the herd significantly. I will still worm and vaccinate what I have as usual. I can't afford not to. But hey, selling down the cattle herd means I won't be needing as many ranch horses or dogs either, which means I won't be buying meds for them anymore either.
"And if I have to get another job, who knows if I will ever make it back to here? How could I harvest extra hay when it was too dry to plant or grow it? I have not yet weaned too many, but intend to early wean soon. I have not yet sold my bred young good cows, but will soon.
"Rainfall at this time might get us a wheat crop in the ground on a timely basis, which could arouse interest in buyers for those calves and give us pond water for the winter, but it's too late for everything else. I quit my winter feeding April 15, but I started feeding again on July 1. I can't lease pasture when it is not available or costs too much."
Steve Cornett
advertisement
There is nothing like a drought to take the wind out of a cowman's sails, and there is a lot of drought around the U.S. cattle country this year.
It looks like it may hang around a while longer, too.
In much of cow country, July and August saw a larger increase in cow culling and early weaning than most cattle people had hoped for. One cow plant in Texas was running double shifts trying to keep up with cows being hauled sometimes hundreds of miles to find a market.
The economists said at mid-summer that the sale of all those cows had slowed, but not halted, the herd rebuilding. Cattle-Fax's Randy Blach said in late July that conditions in much of the country had provided homes for many of the cows forced off by short groceries in the Great Plains.
Still, a huge number of cattle operations were being impacted. A poll of 300 cattle producers conducted in late July by AgWeb (www.agweb.com) found a lot of concern in the cattle country and not much readiness.
The poll was hardly scientific, but did provide an insight into the minds of cattlemen. E-mails were sent to AgWeb subscribers who indicated they own cattle, and the first 300 responses were tabulated.
Of those who responded, only 6% said they were not bothered by drought, another 20% ranked their drought problems as a 2 or 3 on a scale of 1 to 5.
More than half had serious problems with moisture —34.7% claimed a score of 4, and 39.3% said they were in extreme drought.
More than 70% of respondents said the current situation was worse than previous dry spells they've encountered. More than half of respondents said they would need more than 8" of rain to offset their mid-summer condition; 19.7% need more than 12" to catch up.
And they indicated there wasn't a lot they could do about it. Two-thirds said they would delay capital expenditures on their operations. A full 83% said they would have to provide supplemental feed earlier than normal this year. Another 69.3% were expecting to buy extra commercial feed this year. Less than one-third had been able to rent extra land to spread their herds thinner.
Just more than half of the respondents said they had or would wean calves earlier than they had originally planned. And 43.7% said they had been forced to sell breeding cows, with 38% of those selling off one-quarter or more of their cow herds.
Only 25.3% of respondents had planted and harvested extra hay in anticipation of the short feed supplies this winter—a number that has to be bullish on hay prices.
We asked for comments and what suppliers could do to help. Some of the results were a little wrenching.
Said one:
"I live in southwest Oklahoma. We have had 3½" of rain since last October. That's nine months. We lost our wheat crop. . .no rain for spring grass to grow and our cotton crop is a disaster. I have been in the registered cattle business for 26 years and I had to sell all my cattle in July due to no grass and water. I couldn't pencil a profit if I have to start feeding in July. At this point, I don't think we will even have wheat pasture because of no subsoil moisture."
Another said:
"I don't know that it is their responsibility to do anything, except that they are going to feel the crunch just like the feed man, the hay man, the bull man, the equipment guy.
"They are going to all be hurting if I am hurting. I won't have the money to spend on their products. I won't have the numbers in the herd to need as much. If something doesn't happen and happen soon, there will be a lot of people selling lighter-weight, earlier-weaned calves at an earlier market date, which is going be a big hit to the bottom line for me.
"There are no prospects of planting wheat because it is too dry. Ponds are dry or sludgy. Grass is gone down to nubs without ever seeding. If those roots are too close to the top of the ground with no reserve when the freezes come, the grass isn't coming back next year either. Nobody wants to give up pasture for rent or they want an outrageous price because they know how bad we need it, but that pasture is not in good shape either.
"The town guy with the real estate job or the doctor or lawyer job is the only one who can afford to pay those leases. I will be selling good, registered, bred, medium-age cows in a month when I get those calves off. That's something I have never had to do before.
"But last year many pastures burnt off. Year after year, you just can't keep it up. Can't find hay, or the quality of it sucks. Those who have it, need it themselves or are hoarding for higher prices. Freight, whether hauling yourself or hiring it done, is higher because of diesel. That includes the freight on your hay purchase or hauling it in from your own field, cattle sale freight or planting fuel.
"During these dusty stressful times, I am not going to drop back on health requirements, but I won't need as much because they will be gone quicker and I will be cutting back the herd significantly. I will still worm and vaccinate what I have as usual. I can't afford not to. But hey, selling down the cattle herd means I won't be needing as many ranch horses or dogs either, which means I won't be buying meds for them anymore either.
"And if I have to get another job, who knows if I will ever make it back to here? How could I harvest extra hay when it was too dry to plant or grow it? I have not yet weaned too many, but intend to early wean soon. I have not yet sold my bred young good cows, but will soon.
"Rainfall at this time might get us a wheat crop in the ground on a timely basis, which could arouse interest in buyers for those calves and give us pond water for the winter, but it's too late for everything else. I quit my winter feeding April 15, but I started feeding again on July 1. I can't lease pasture when it is not available or costs too much."
