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Rubbing my toe in the dirt

B

Brad S

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 15, 2005
Messages
3,022
Location
west of Soapweed
So Valentine sold feeders (let's use 700# class to get out of grass calves) for up or down from $175 on the 7th - $1225/hd.

Oct fed cattle closed at slightly over $1.15 today. If those 700# calves gain 3# pd for the next 150 days, that's 1150#. Well they're good Sandhill cattle so let's figure them at 1300#. You better not feed cattle if you don't anticipate some gain issues with hot dusty and humid days ahead, but let's stay on track. We're looking at those calves that cost $1225 today bringing $1495 as 1300# fats. $275 for 600 pounds assuming zero DL and zero interest (that's actually about fair). With only $275 value increase, a couple trucking bills and a few dollar drug bill are undoable. $.45 cog - feed cost of gain maybe.

Yes, 700# calves can go to grass if you want to push th back to a $1.05 fed market ( hell no). Can you find any place to graze for less then cog in feed yard? Not much, but calves on grass get past the dog days better than calves in pens.

Feeding cattle is in my DNA, but I'd join a 12 step program if I placed those calves. It'll be interesting to watch how calves placed today work out. They might breakout if you grassed them on grandmas grass and your ol lady processed and fenced so you could lie on the ledger sheet about what you have in them. This after months and months of historic losses in the feedlot. Slow learners are the best learners
 
I had a cattle buyer tell me the other day that aside from the packers there are very few people left feeding cattle. How convenient, they now have little competition for feeder cattle and with TPP will eventually be able to import any junk meat and stick a USDA label on it.
 
Me and a bunch of wounded feeders are going to start using that one on the bankers- "you can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket." I'll take a picture when I get that squinty banker eye.

The Valentine numbers were plenty competitive. We are definitely facing changing times. I've always felt like referencing past would indicate the future, but I see less and less connection.
It won't be boring. Try to remember this point in the future.

I don't understand the relationship, but remember $12,000/acre corn belt and $3.50 corn. If we're still around, we'll be smarter.


Wb - long feeders scare me. Concern and respect are good things - fear is a negative emotion. I hope we can find a sustainable equilibrium without a historic bloodbath - like we haven't seen one already, but things still are out of balance.
 
I'm kinda glad there's been a 'correction' now rather than another year of record, stupid high prices where packers would shut down, and then suddenly we're all really screwed..
What I know for sure is *SOMEONE* is making money right now.. it might not be you or I though.. I think a steady $2-2.50/lb for 5wts would be about right, both in terms of the producers, and the consumers.. I got $1400 for a 385 lb steer last fall.. it was just stupid (I don't think the buyer made much money on him yet)
 
Wouldn't it be interesting to see an honest account of what each segment of the cattle/beef business makes? Compare total investment of each, figure type of cattle, grade and quality of beef produced, all costs, and see what each makes per day of ownership or whatever it takes to actually see, who is 'making' all that money???

mrj
 
Even though prices on all cattle have backed off considerably it hasn't on the retail level. Lean ground beef is still around $5 a pound even though fat cattle and killer cows have gone down considerably. I try and watch the meat counter in stores if I have a chance. People pick up beef packages, look at the price and put it down and move on to pork or chicken.
 
I know my opinion above was rather pessimistic but I actually thought fed cattle were poised for a nice rally before this week began. The way things are going most cattle feeders would be better off to go to Vegas and bet on red rather than buy more feeders.
 
I was just looking at my market report
6wts averaged $2.30/lb ($1380)
7wts averaged $2/lb ($1400)
8wts averaged $1.60 ($1280)

So for the 7wts you got $1400, for the 8wts you got $1280, or basically you lost $120.. you can't sharpen your pencil fine enough with those kind of price fluctuations on weight.

I feel sorry for the sucker that bought my dink last August for $3.75/lb and 385 lbs ($1440)... He'd probably be 800 lbs now,.. so 8 months of feed for -$200.. Sure, he could be heavier, which means more inputs, and probably even less profit
 
Nesikep said:
I feel sorry for the sucker that bought my dink last August for $3.75/lb and 385 lbs ($1440)... He'd probably be 800 lbs now,.. so 8 months of feed for -$200.. Sure, he could be heavier, which means more inputs, and probably even less profit
Click to expand...

I don't feel sorry that sucker at all. It will take a few more years of prices like that to make up for what BSE did to us. I sold good cull D1 cows for $180 less trucking and deductions that first year of BSE and I know I wasn't alone. I didn't see a price reduction in the store either so I'm thinking that sucker that bought your $1,440 calf made out like a bandit 2003-2008 so the only reason I may care a wee bit about those guys is that for us to have a market there needs to be someone there to buy our product. But it does my heart good to see these guys take a bath once in a while.
Geeze, I sound kinda bitter don't I? :lol:
 
Well maybe just a little! But more than likely most of us north of the border will understand that...

Right or wrong, I sold our cows and they left about 2 weeks ago. We had a mostly young bunch that I had bought to rebuild our badly depleted herd, having bought few replacements during the BSE years.

We were fortunate to have brought them in as young breds at reasonable prices a couple or 3 years ago.

We sold 2 good calves out of them and now the mommas went out on the current market, ready to calve.

Made for some significant restructuring around here but I don't miss them already.

So, not that I was ever much of one, but I'm not at all a cow man anymore. :?
 
I think calves will go down through the year as will fats. Last year, I bypassed any selling in November and December that I could and held until late January i think. May of been February.. It payed off.

We feed cattle for Tyson out on Byproducts. Grain prices are pretty irrelevant to me as is hay actually.

The thoughts above I made about pricing..... Remember what you paid for them. That is their true market value. It is also better to be lucky than good ;-}
 
Silver said:
Nesikep said:
I feel sorry for the sucker that bought my dink last August for $3.75/lb and 385 lbs ($1440)... He'd probably be 800 lbs now,.. so 8 months of feed for -$200.. Sure, he could be heavier, which means more inputs, and probably even less profit
Click to expand...

I don't feel sorry that sucker at all. It will take a few more years of prices like that to make up for what BSE did to us. I sold good cull D1 cows for $180 less trucking and deductions that first year of BSE and I know I wasn't alone. I didn't see a price reduction in the store either so I'm thinking that sucker that bought your $1,440 calf made out like a bandit 2003-2008 so the only reason I may care a wee bit about those guys is that for us to have a market there needs to be someone there to buy our product. But it does my heart good to see these guys take a bath once in a while.
Geeze, I sound kinda bitter don't I? :lol:
Click to expand...
I'm bitter about that too.. and prices here were better than in Ontario. What I know is that whoever made the profit on it back then didn't save for rainy days, and they'll go tits up or be asking for handouts when times get just a little bit rougher for them.
No, I'm not all that sorry for the guy who bought the dink.
 

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