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Cattle Supply: Fourth Quarter Will Be Key In Herd Expansion
Today 10/16/2006 6:50:00 AM
Cattle Supply: Fourth Quarter Will Be Key In Herd Expansion
James Mintert, agricultural economics expert at Kansas State University Research and Extension, says that recent trends have clouded the picture of the U.S. cattle herd, and that fourth-quarter statistics will be key to interpreting the picture.
Beef processors are counting on an expanding herd to rein in high prices and provide a larger number of younger cattle to meet demand in Japan, where prices are high, but only beef from animals 20 months or younger is allowed.
A huge bump in cattle sent to slaughter in the late summer has clouded a picture of a rapidly expanding herd stimulated by high prices for cattle and calves, Mintert said. "This year's beef and dairy cow slaughter combined total has been 10.5 percent higher than a year ago," he noted. "The big rise in beef cow slaughter has stimulated speculation that the U.S. has shifted from herd expansion to herd liquidation. But is this really the case?"
He points to a jump in steer slaughter, but a decline in heifer slaughter as indicative that farmers are culling their herds of steers, perhaps due to drought conditions, while holding back heifers to rebuild the herd next year.
"So far this year, the ratio of female to steer slaughter is 0.833, suggesting that producers are still trying to expand their herds despite drought and poor pasture conditions," Mintert said. "Fourth quarter cow and heifer slaughter will ultimately determine what happens."
by Pete Hisey on Monday, October 16, 2006
Today 10/16/2006 6:50:00 AM
Cattle Supply: Fourth Quarter Will Be Key In Herd Expansion
James Mintert, agricultural economics expert at Kansas State University Research and Extension, says that recent trends have clouded the picture of the U.S. cattle herd, and that fourth-quarter statistics will be key to interpreting the picture.
Beef processors are counting on an expanding herd to rein in high prices and provide a larger number of younger cattle to meet demand in Japan, where prices are high, but only beef from animals 20 months or younger is allowed.
A huge bump in cattle sent to slaughter in the late summer has clouded a picture of a rapidly expanding herd stimulated by high prices for cattle and calves, Mintert said. "This year's beef and dairy cow slaughter combined total has been 10.5 percent higher than a year ago," he noted. "The big rise in beef cow slaughter has stimulated speculation that the U.S. has shifted from herd expansion to herd liquidation. But is this really the case?"
He points to a jump in steer slaughter, but a decline in heifer slaughter as indicative that farmers are culling their herds of steers, perhaps due to drought conditions, while holding back heifers to rebuild the herd next year.
"So far this year, the ratio of female to steer slaughter is 0.833, suggesting that producers are still trying to expand their herds despite drought and poor pasture conditions," Mintert said. "Fourth quarter cow and heifer slaughter will ultimately determine what happens."
by Pete Hisey on Monday, October 16, 2006
