• If you are having problems logging in please use the Contact Us in the lower right hand corner of the forum page for assistance.

&[email protected]*! )#&%$!

Mike

Well-known member
USDA: Growth Of U.S. Beef Exports To Slow In 2007

A report issued by USDA's Economic Research Service indicates growth of U.S. beef exports will slow in 2007, citing import policies of Asian markets.

"Exports to Japan edged up only slowly when the market reopened last fall and do not appear to be accelerating in early 2007," the report states. "U.S. exports have been constrained by a limited supply of age-verified cattle in the United States and by occasional suspension of exports from packers sending non-approved products in their shipments."

USDA Economist Monte Vandeveer told reporters South Korea's rejection of U.S. beef also remains an issue, though USDA expects some U.S. beef to enter commerce in Seoul.

However, Vandeveer indicated that the bigger culprit is a projected decline in the growth of exports to Mexico, owing in part to a potential lull in its economy.

By Tom Johnston on Wednesday, March 21, 2007
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Calm down Mike -- 3 or 4 shots of good sipping stuff will help you thru it...

Remember we're only losing a "trivial" $175 head because of this USDA/NCBA Packer backer attitude..... :wink:
 

Mike

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Calm down Mike -- 3 or 4 shots of good sipping stuff will help you thru it...

Remember we're only losing a "trivial" $175 head because of this USDA/NCBA Packer backer attitude..... :wink:

Yea. But we've lost that $175 per head for what..........3-4 years now?

I think I'll go back and pull out the "Kansas State Study" that told us that BSE testing would have a positive effect on both prices and volume. BIG PLUS.

I've got some old leftover "Makers Mark" in the bar I might try. Thanks for the advice. :cry:

What makes me cry is the Jap and Korean consumers are paying $25 per lb and up for beef now. :mad:
 

Econ101

Well-known member
This report is blaming the reason on no age verified cattle for Japan. Party line propaganda.

The real reason is that the USDA can't be trusted by Japan and wants to run the kind of policy (failed policy) that it wants to push on our trading partners.

Not putting the blame where it belongs means we won't be smart enough to fix the problem.

Cattlemen should be mad at this failed policy of the USDA and their bureaucracy. Too bad the courts have given them "deference". Not everyone is drinking their cool aid.

I see the Judiciary committee isn't going to give the administration "deference" and is going to require the truth by issuing subpoenas.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
I had a chat with Senator Hagel's office just this morning about this (they called me, SH). I also told them it seemed to me the USDA was doing all they could to put US cattlemen out of business - I wondered who's side they were on.
 

flounder

Well-known member
Econ101 said:
This report is blaming the reason on no age verified cattle for Japan. Party line propaganda.

The real reason is that the USDA can't be trusted by Japan and wants to run the kind of policy (failed policy) that it wants to push on our trading partners.

Not putting the blame where it belongs means we won't be smart enough to fix the problem.

Cattlemen should be mad at this failed policy of the USDA and their bureaucracy. Too bad the courts have given them "deference". Not everyone is drinking their cool aid.

I see the Judiciary committee isn't going to give the administration "deference" and is going to require the truth by issuing subpoenas.



Econ101 said:
This report is blaming the reason on no age verified cattle for Japan. Party line propaganda.

The real reason is that the USDA can't be trusted by Japan and wants to run the kind of policy (failed policy) that it wants to push on our trading partners.

Not putting the blame where it belongs means we won't be smart enough to fix the problem.

Cattlemen should be mad at this failed policy of the USDA and their bureaucracy. Too bad the courts have given them "deference". Not everyone is drinking their cool aid.

I see the Judiciary committee isn't going to give the administration "deference" and is going to require the truth by issuing subpoenas.


Japan

Livestock and Products

Semiannual Report

2007



Report Highlights: Japan currently only allows U.S. beef from animals aged 20

months or younger, which severely limits trade. While the Japanese market was

partially re-opened in July 2006, imports of U.S. beef only reached 10,458 MT in

2006, a fraction of historic levels. 2007 U.S. beef sales to Japan are forecast at

57,000 MT, primarily due to a limited supply of age-qualified animals in the United

States. However, this forecast is highly dependent on policy developments. High

beef prices in general will dampen consumption. Pork imports are forecast down

2% to 1.12 million MT in 2007. Increased enforcement of the so called ‘gate price’

system of collecting import duties will continue to limit imports of frozen pork for

processing. The Untied States is expected to continue doing a brisk trade in

seasoned ground pork for sausages, which falls outside of the ‘gate price’ duty

system.



snip...



Beef Section

2007 Japan Beef Market Outlook

For Policy Reasons, Imports of U.S. Beef to Stay Low in 2007

Post estimates Japan’s total beef imports in 2007 will be around 720,000 MT, up by 4% from

last year. CY 2007 U.S. beef sales to Japan are forecast up at 57,000 MT.

Japan currently only allows U.S. beef from animals aged 20 months or younger. One large

factor in the 2007 import estimate is the ability of the U.S. beef industry to supply cattle that

qualify under USDA’s EV program, which is used to identify animals that meet the Japanese

age restrictions. Currently, a minority of the cattle slaughtered in the United States qualify

under this program. The Japanese policy is not based on sound science and is not consistent

with international standards. If Japan were to adopt international standards in 2007, it would

greatly increase the exportable supply of U.S. beef and would contribute to the United States

regaining its historic market share. In May 2007, the OIE (the World Organization for Animal

Health) is expected to adopt a new classification for BSE risk in the Untied States. Because

the OIE is a recognized standard setting body in the WTO, this change may play a key role in

normalizing the beef trade with Japan.


snip...


http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200703/146280444.pdf


China, Peoples Republic of

Livestock and Products

Semi-Annual Report

2007



snip...



Executive Summary

Total U.S. pork and pork product exports to China via direct shipments and Hong Kong

transshipments (i.e., muscle meat, variety meal, offals and processed meat) reached $94

million (CIF) in CY 2006, an 11 percent decrease from last year due to higher export prices.

In 2006, the average CIF unit price for U.S. direct pork shipments to China increased by 15

percent. U.S. pork exports to China have been interrupted by China’s “0” tolerance standard

on ractopamine. Two major U.S. exporting plants are suspended by China due to

ractopamine detections at the beginning of 2006. Demand for U.S. beef remains strong in

China, but trade resumption during 2007 remains uncertain. As evidence of the sales

potential, the trade believes the annual flow of U.S. beef into China through “indirect

channels” is probably equal to or greater than the pre-BSE ban 2003 import levels. China

and the United States continue discussions on the range of beef products and on China’s

quarantine import conditions. See CH6074 (dated September 7, 2006) for more background

on the U.S.-China beef negotiations that took place during May to July 2006.



snip...



China’s beef production in 2007 is forecast to increase by 5 percent to 7.9 MMT driven by

strong domestic demand and lagging supplies. China’s beef imports are forecast to remain

flat in 2007 due to China’s bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-related restrictions.

China’s beef exports in 2007 are forecast to increase by 3 percent to 102,000 MT. U.S.,

Canadian and Brazilian export recovering in world market may shrink China’s export share.

China’s pork production in 2007 is forecast to increase by 4 percent to 54.4 MMT due to slow

slaughter. China’s pork imports are forecast to increase by 4 percent, not only because of

slow domestic slaughter, but also because of stronger RMB against U.S. Dollars.



http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200703/146280511.pdf



THE USDA JUNE 2004 ENHANCED BSE SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM WAS TERRIBLY FLAWED ;


CDC DR. PAUL BROWN TSE EXPERT COMMENTS 2006


The U.S. Department of Agriculture was quick to assure the public earlier
this week that the third case of mad cow disease did not pose a risk to
them, but what federal officials have not acknowledged is that this latest
case indicates the deadly disease has been circulating in U.S. herds for at
least a decade.

The second case, which was detected last year in a Texas cow and which USDA
officials were reluctant to verify, was approximately 12 years old.

These two cases (the latest was detected in an Alabama cow) present a
picture of the disease having been here for 10 years or so, since it is
thought that cows usually contract the disease from contaminated feed they
consume as calves. The concern is that humans can contract a fatal,
incurable, brain-wasting illness from consuming beef products contaminated
with the mad cow pathogen.

"The fact the Texas cow showed up fairly clearly implied the existence of
other undetected cases," Dr. Paul Brown, former medical director of the
National Institutes of Health's Laboratory for Central Nervous System
Studies and an expert on mad cow-like diseases, told United Press
International. "The question was, 'How many?' and we still can't answer
that."

Brown, who is preparing a scientific paper based on the latest two mad cow
cases to estimate the maximum number of infected cows that occurred in the
United States, said he has "absolutely no confidence in USDA tests before
one year ago" because of the agency's reluctance to retest the Texas cow
that initially tested positive.

USDA officials finally retested the cow and confirmed it was infected seven
months later, but only at the insistence of the agency's inspector general.

"Everything they did on the Texas cow makes everything USDA did before 2005
suspect," Brown said. ...snip...end


http://www.upi.com/ConsumerHealthDaily/view.php?StoryID=20060315-055557-1284r


CDC - Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Variant Creutzfeldt ...
Dr. Paul Brown is Senior Research Scientist in the Laboratory of Central
Nervous System ... Address for correspondence: Paul Brown, Building 36, Room
4A-05, ...


http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol7no1/brown.htm





PAUL BROWN COMMENT TO ME ON THIS ISSUE

Tuesday, September 12, 2006 11:10 AM


"Actually, Terry, I have been critical of the USDA handling of the mad cow issue for some years, and with Linda Detwiler and others sent lengthy detailed critiques and recommendations to both the USDA and the Canadian Food Agency."


OR, what the Honorable Phyllis Fong of the OIG found ;


Audit Report

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Surveillance Program – Phase II

and

Food Safety and Inspection Service

Controls Over BSE Sampling, Specified Risk Materials, and Advanced Meat Recovery Products - Phase III

Report No. 50601-10-KC January 2006

Finding 2 Inherent Challenges in Identifying and Testing High-Risk Cattle Still Remain


http://www.usda.gov/oig/webdocs/50601-10-KC.pdf




EXPORTATION AND IMPORTATION OF ANIMALS AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS:
BSE; MRR AND IMPORTATION OF COMMODITIES, 65758-65759 [E6-19042]



http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0701&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=3854




http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0611&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=3381




http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0703&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=498




http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0702&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=10277




http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0701&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=9972




http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0703&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=4492




http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0703&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=2583




http://lists.ifas.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0703&L=sanet-mg&T=0&P=2470



Terry S. Singeltary Sr.
P.O. Box 42
Bacliff, Texas USA 77518
 

PORKER

Well-known member
The McDonalds Corporation will continue to work with the FDA and other government agencies to implement a strong BSE risk control program. We would like to reiterate our opinion that for the FDA to provide a more comprehensive and protective feed ban, specified risk materials (SRMs) and deadstock must be removed from all animal feed and that legal exemptions which allow ruminant protein to be fed back to ruminants (with the exception of milk) should be discontinued. Thank you for the opportunity to submit these comments to the public record.


Respectfully,

Dick Crawford

Corporate Vice President, Government Relations
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
This Asian trade issue is not hard to figure out...FOLLOW THE MONEY!!!!!!!!!

The North American beef market is 5x the entire Asian market (Japan, S.K.). And 10-20x our share of that market pre-BSE.

We are at near record live cattle price levels because of tight supplies with respect to consumption in the USA.

If Japan and S.K. opened to pre-BSE levels from the USA and Canada, what would that do to the price of the quarter million live cattle processed to supply the North American market with very little to no increase in retail/wholesale beef prices in this market?

Do you really have to wonder why the Asian markets aren't opening??????
 
Top