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agman... question from canada

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blackjack

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 21, 2005
Messages
118
Location
west central Alberta
...agman i do not know if you have these stats on canadian imports to the states or not ... my question is since from aug 03 till now how many lbs of boxed beef and live cattle have entered the states on a yearly avg... the reason i ask this question is in my opinion since our live utm's exports have rose ...and that our actual slaughtering here in canada seems to be down 30 % on utm's... would that not make the amount of boxed beef available to the states lower... maybe the question i should ask is do the live trade and the boxed beef counteract each other so the amounts in lbs imported to the u.s.a. vary little...yes or no...
 
blackjack said:
...agman i do not know if you have these stats on canadian imports to the states or not ... my question is since from aug 03 till now how many lbs of boxed beef and live cattle have entered the states on a yearly avg... the reason i ask this question is in my opinion since our live utm's exports have rose ...and that our actual slaughtering here in canada seems to be down 30 % on utm's... would that not make the amount of boxed beef available to the states lower... maybe the question i should ask is do the live trade and the boxed beef counteract each other so the amounts in lbs imported to the u.s.a. vary little...yes or no...
Click to expand...

I do not have the exact stats in front of me at the present time but product imports into the U.S. on the latest reporting data have been under last year. Cattle imports from Canada are up which would more than offset the modest reduction in product imports.
 
...thanks agman ...i was just kind of wondering if the amount of canadian beef had that major of effect on the fat prices has some would love to assume... looks to me like the price and over supply of poultry is the biggest concern on the markets ... have some feeders to put on grass looking for a stronger august feeder price to sell into...
 
blackjack said:
...thanks agman ...i was just kind of wondering if the amount of canadian beef had that major of effect on the fat prices has some would love to assume... looks to me like the price and over supply of poultry is the biggest concern on the markets ... have some feeders to put on grass looking for a stronger august feeder price to sell into...
Click to expand...

The supply/demand factors in our domestic market have a much greater influence on price than imports.
 
Blackjack, if your grass calve are light enough I would be tempted to sell them now. Lots of demand for grass calves from buyers thinking exactly as you are.

I think there is going to be a big bubble of yearlings starting in Sept. maybe late enough to absorb them, but with the summer looking as slow as it does now, feeders might be pretty gunshy.

Agman has previously predicted maybe a 5 cent slide on calf prices this fall, I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I would assume a similar slide on yearlings.
 
I think alot will depend on the poultry market and the Canadian dollar, but I think we're going to see a heavier slide than 5 cents this fall, at least up here. We had a 20 cent slide in March (from Feb prices). They've recovered a bit now as people are buying lights to put on grass for the summer, but we're going to see a pretty heavy market in the fall.

Rod
 
Jason said:
Blackjack, if your grass calve are light enough I would be tempted to sell them now. Lots of demand for grass calves from buyers thinking exactly as you are.

I think there is going to be a big bubble of yearlings starting in Sept. maybe late enough to absorb them, but with the summer looking as slow as it does now, feeders might be pretty gunshy.

Agman has previously predicted maybe a 5 cent slide on calf prices this fall, I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I would assume a similar slide on yearlings.
Click to expand...

The $5.00 /cwt reduction was in the annual average price fro calves. Calf prices this fall could lose $10-$15 cwt unless the fed sector makes a remarkable recovery from its current losses.
 
agman said:
Jason said:
Blackjack, if your grass calve are light enough I would be tempted to sell them now. Lots of demand for grass calves from buyers thinking exactly as you are.

I think there is going to be a big bubble of yearlings starting in Sept. maybe late enough to absorb them, but with the summer looking as slow as it does now, feeders might be pretty gunshy.

Agman has previously predicted maybe a 5 cent slide on calf prices this fall, I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I would assume a similar slide on yearlings.
Click to expand...

The $5.00 /cwt reduction was in the annual average price fro calves. Calf prices this fall could lose $10-$15 cwt unless the fed sector makes a remarkable recovery from its current losses.
Click to expand...

You are pretty close to what the buyers are talking locally-- Calves that sold for $1.30 weight at around 550-600lbs last year- Oct-Nov delivery- the buyers are now talking $1.10-$1.15 for these same calves this year- but I haven't heard of any putting it on paper yet either....

Feedlot losses, fuel costs, and imports will take a toll.......
 
Oldtimer said:
agman said:
Jason said:
Blackjack, if your grass calve are light enough I would be tempted to sell them now. Lots of demand for grass calves from buyers thinking exactly as you are.

I think there is going to be a big bubble of yearlings starting in Sept. maybe late enough to absorb them, but with the summer looking as slow as it does now, feeders might be pretty gunshy.

Agman has previously predicted maybe a 5 cent slide on calf prices this fall, I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I would assume a similar slide on yearlings.
Click to expand...

The $5.00 /cwt reduction was in the annual average price fro calves. Calf prices this fall could lose $10-$15 cwt unless the fed sector makes a remarkable recovery from its current losses.
Click to expand...


You are pretty close to what the buyers are talking locally-- Calves that sold for $1.30 weight at around 550-600lbs last year- Oct-Nov delivery- the buyers are now talking $1.10-$1.15 for these same calves this year- but I haven't heard of any putting it on paper yet either....

Feedlot losses, fuel costs, and imports will take a toll.......
Click to expand...

Thanks
 
... jason...i understand where you are coming from but we have the grass and it is apart of our program... whether these guys that are buying grassers right now are very optimistic or they realise something the rest of us don't ...another one of the big factors up here in canada will be the weather ...right now there is not much of a market for grain or hay in my area ... so the options on land use is limited...


...rod if this dollar keeps on going up like it is ...i might have to buy some of oldtimers calves in a couple of years with our colored money...it just might be worth more than the greenback... since we don't know who will replace bush only time will tell... :wink:
 
blackjack said:
... jason...i understand where you are coming from but we have the grass and it is apart of our program... whether these guys that are buying grassers right now are very optimistic or they realise something the rest of us don't ...another one of the big factors up here in canada will be the weather ...right now there is not much of a market for grain or hay in my area ... so the options on land use is limited...


...rod if this dollar keeps on going up like it is ...i might have to buy some of oldtimers calves in a couple of years with our colored money...it just might be worth more than the greenback... since we don't know who will replace bush only time will tell... :wink:
Click to expand...

blackjack-- thats what many never think of -- You've got the investment in the land and/or grass that has to be used some way to take advantage of it- same as the feeders have the investments in their lots... I only hope this isn't a year when everyone takes it in the shorts and we start seeing places folding because the speculation doesn't come thru....May all depend on when the Banks start jerking on the purse strings.....

And you may be right about your money too-- With Bush trying to lower our standard of living to better fit his global economy world, he might end up putting us below everyone else...Might put my old collegemate back to work again- he bought cattle for Canada feedlots- but his big run only lasted a couple years.....
 
Im not sure that the Canadian dollar will climb higher than the greenback but it sure has a jump on it right now the way it is climbing. :wink:
 
...m_r...some of the money experts i listen to on saturday morning say that the canadian dollar could level out around 92 this year... they also said it may be possible it might be at par by the end of 07...
 
Blackjack, there are some cheap cows out there to use your grass.

Just an option.

I know a lot of guys who are upside down on heifers so are now breeding them to try to get another kick at a profit.

One guy told me he paid $807 for heifers last fall, they are worth $800 now, and he has $150 in feed into them. Another $100 into them for summer grass and bull costs, they will need $1100 or $1200 to come out on them.

I got the last few pairs in at $552, haven't paid more than $850 for any pair.
 
...jason... on the hrs and strs i bought would need about 780 to break even ... definitely should consider selling the strs as they should bring around 825 as the market stands today... the hfrs look like they would bring around 725 ... tomorrow our local auction mart is having a good run on cow=calf pairs and june calvers...going in to take a boo... as for breeding hfrs as far i'm concerned thats a dead horse... like your post says there are just to many cheap cows on the market...
 
Good luck whatever choice you make blackjack. I know I am looking forward to what I can make on the 70 pairs I have bought. They have been some work with a few bad bags and a couple that are wild. They sure make me appreciate my blacks.
 

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