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Beef imports increase

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Beef imports increase



By the CME Daily Livestock Report

Iowa Farmer Today-Farm Commodity Newsletter

3/6/2009



One item that has gone somewhat unnoticed in the discussion over beef supplies in 2009 is the amount of imported beef that is expected to flow into the US market this year.



And it is an important factor as the US is expected to import almost 2.7 billion pounds of beef in 2009 compared to 1.9 billion pounds that will be exported. According to the latest USDA WASDE report, total beef imports are expected to increase by 7.3% this year compared to 2008 levels but still be as much as 12.2% lower than what they were in 2007.



The estimate likely reflects the impact of a stronger US dollar, which tends to make imports cheaper for US consumers as well as somewhat better demand for grinding beef items compared to other beef cuts. So far, however, and counter to what some may think, beef imports have not increased compared to a year ago.



Entries of Australian beef are currently running about 7.6% above year ago levels due to a favorable exchange rate and slowing demand from other markets, such as Russia and Korea. But entries of New Zealand beef are still some 12.2% lower than what they were a year ago.



Critical to the higher import levels laid out in the USDA estimates is the outlook for Uruguayan beef. So far, beef shipments from Uruguay are running only slightly above year ago levels and well below what they were in 2007. There was some expectation that Uruguayan shipments to the US would increase in 2009, in part due to the strong US dollar but mostly because of the disruptions in trade with large buyers, such as Russia. So far, however, that has not taken place.



The high US tariff remains an issue. Also, Uruguayan shipments to the US were complicated by the new E.coli testing requirements put in place by FSIS, which caused plenty of uncertainty as to how imported beef would be handled in case of a positive test. Each country had to work with USDA to put in place new procedures and Uruguayan packers were especially slow in this regard. That issue appears to have been resolved, at least from what we understand, but there is still lingering uncertainty among some US traders in handling Uruguayan product.



So how reasonable is the 7% increase in beef imports USDA projects in its latest report?



We think quite reasonable. Australian shipments to the US are accelerating and that will probably cause entries to increase in Q2. Also, New Zealand probably will start shipping more once their cow slaughter is in full swing and low dairy prices cause them to be more aggressive in culling their dairy herd. Imports from Canada also should be higher as more fed cattle are slaughtered in Canada.



marketwatchonline.com
 
Australian 09 Beef Exports As Of 5 MAR
Australia Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
D.A.F.F. Statistics - Latest Meat Export Figures for 2009 - Balance As Of 05 MAR 2009
Kilos Shipped Weight
Area Total Beef/Veal
----- ----------------
USA East Coast 4,295,626
USA West Coast 1,689,159
Total USA 5,984,785
Japan 4,845,617
9 Other Countries, Regions 5,207,617

Total Australia 16,038,019
 
Imports from Canada also should be higher as more fed cattle are slaughtered in Canada.

Couldn't see that one coming eh? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Cattle imports = jobs for American citizens and profits for American feeders
Beef imports = profits for corporate giants

Closing or restricting trade in live animals will not diminish beef exports. Not one bit. The beef will still come, but it will probably come from countries that produce it cheaper than anyone in North America can. The only losers here are Canadian and American cattle producers. We don't get a fair price here, and you don't stop imports.
 
Kato said:
Imports from Canada also should be higher as more fed cattle are slaughtered in Canada.

Couldn't see that one coming eh? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Cattle imports = jobs for American citizens and profits for American feeders
Beef imports = profits for corporate giants

Closing or restricting trade in live animals will not diminish beef exports. Not one bit. The beef will still come, but it will probably come from countries that produce it cheaper than anyone in North America can. The only losers here are Canadian and American cattle producers. We don't get a fair price here, and you don't stop imports.

We're never going to be able to stop imports-- but at least M-COOL gives the US producer an ability to identify our product from the imported- and be able to promote the US product....
 
27 FEB 09 - Quote: "We have made strategic changes in our production mix. We've laid the support for our belief that grassfed beef is going to be in greatest demand. The prices we received (for our properties) were all equivalent to net tangible asset value (about 70% higher than AA Co's sharemarket value. We have therefore demonstrated the real value of these properties."

Australian Agricultural Company (AA Co) Chairman Charles Bright upon being asked recently about AA Co land sales and purchases


These "strategic changes" reduced AA Co's debt by $425 million. Look for AA Co to buy more properties that fit in with their current strategy.

27 FEB 09 - Quote: "Australia's northern cattle industry is being transformed like never before. If everything proceeds as announced, there will be more sales to come, following the sales in the past 2 months, of 31 stations carrying about 600,000 cattle - for more than $1.1 billion. --- The past 60 days have been the most hectic in Australian rural property history. --- It prompts the obvious question: Can the new buyers get a reasonable return on their investment? Some believe not."

North Queensland Register's Paul Myers


Station (ranch) buyers include groups like UK investment group Terra Firma and the Macquarie Pastoral Fund, plus there are rumors that a secretive company, Primary Holdings International, is becoming a buyer. It's believed that Macquarie has set aside $1.3 billion for property acquisitions, and they are just getting started.

27 FEB 09 - Quote: "With declining wages and worsening unemployment, Japanese consumers have become more price-conscious, yet their desire for safe food remains strong. For Japan's consumers, food products from the Oceania region - namely Australia and New Zealand - are held in high regard. Food from Australia and New Zealand is seen as 'affordable' and 'safe', compared with perceptions noted for China and the US, whose products are deemed 'affordable' but having 'concerns with safety.'"

Results from a survey conducted in December 2008 by the Japan Finance Cooperation (JFC) (which is owned by the Japanese government) reported on the above date.


It is tempting for a salesman to say to a potential beef buyer, "You should use our BSE-free grassfed beef. You never know what you will get when you buy US beef." In reality this is not a good thing to do. Beef should always be talked about in positive terms. However, in our imperfect world it probably happens. I believe that beef producers and packers will have to deal with BSE issues for a long, long time. If you agree, how do you think this will impact global trade in terms of who will get most of the business?
 
It is tempting for a salesman to say to a potential beef buyer, "You should use our BSE-free grassfed beef. You never know what you will get when you buy US beef." In reality this is not a good thing to do. Beef should always be talked about in positive terms. However, in our imperfect world it probably happens. I believe that beef producers and packers will have to deal with BSE issues for a long, long time. If you agree, how do you think this will impact global trade in terms of who will get most of the business?

The reason the big Multinational Packer bought out USDA should have allowed Creekstone to test years ago- and open up those other markets- rather than stymying them to help their buddies at Tyson/Swift/etal profiteer.....
 
My recommendations for all U.S. and Canadian cow-calf producers (who are near and dear to my heart) - for what they are worth - are:

1. If you are not already in one, get into a benchmarking program and be determined to make changes that will put you in the top group (quartile or third) in terms of profitability.

2. If you are not already in one, join an alliance that has a proven track record for getting premiums for value added cattle if there is one in your area and it matches your cattle types. You don't even have to put all your cattle in the program to impact the bottom line, and every little bit helps. In other segments of agriculture producers have moved into the top group by including high-margin niche products in their production and marketing mix. The higher the margin, the less of it you need to make a significant difference.

3. Participate through your industry organizations on industry issues, but put most of your time and effort on number one and number two (in addition to running your operation, of course). It could mean the difference in surviving in the beef industry or not. Ask yourself, "How many producers have left the business in my country in the past 5 years?" Large changes by the beef packers are not going to happen overnight, so take that as an opportunity to do things to make sure you last as long as possible. There is a lot of evidence that the global industry is headed toward a new business model.
 
Kato said:
Imports from Canada also should be higher as more fed cattle are slaughtered in Canada.

Couldn't see that one coming eh? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Cattle imports = jobs for American citizens and profits for American feeders
Beef imports = profits for corporate giants

Closing or restricting trade in live animals will not diminish beef exports. Not one bit. The beef will still come, but it will probably come from countries that produce it cheaper than anyone in North America can. The only losers here are Canadian and American cattle producers. We don't get a fair price here, and you don't stop imports.

That is EXACTLY why we need COOL coordinated with the checkoff so that US beef is promoted and the people can find it. South American beef IS coming, whether we like it or not. We need a plan of action NOW. What's your plan, Kato?
 
Sandhusker said:
Kato said:
Imports from Canada also should be higher as more fed cattle are slaughtered in Canada.

Couldn't see that one coming eh? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Cattle imports = jobs for American citizens and profits for American feeders
Beef imports = profits for corporate giants

Closing or restricting trade in live animals will not diminish beef exports. Not one bit. The beef will still come, but it will probably come from countries that produce it cheaper than anyone in North America can. The only losers here are Canadian and American cattle producers. We don't get a fair price here, and you don't stop imports.

That is EXACTLY why we need COOL coordinated with the checkoff so that US beef is promoted and the people can find it. South American beef IS coming, whether we like it or not. We need a plan of action NOW. What's your plan, Kato?

I have never been against COOL - but in the end - if you want to move beef - money talks.

Undercut the imports and they will not come in.

Can't undercut?

Then more and more will arrive at the door.

Mr and Mrs Joe Six Pack in the city most often do not give a damn about where it comes from - price is everything in this day and age. As long as it has a stamp on it that states it has been inspected and is legal for sale in the country.

8% of the U.S. of A. is out of work - they are not interested in the flag - they want to feed their families.

Times get tougher they will care even less.

As times get tougher and the bailout package does not work and the feds come to the well for another trillion plus dollars (God I hope not - but I have a bad feeling) - food will be the driving force in many folks lives - cheaper will be better.

When incomes drop, people do not care about the flag - they care about feeding their families.

I believe you will see a continued rise in imported beef over the next few years - and that rise will not be from your northern neighbour - it will be from South America. And that means beef produced in North America willbe in serious trouble.

Packers are quite happy to help this process along - all in the name of profit - as the flag is not important.

Regards

BC
 
To some extent I agree with you B.C...Like Sandhusker says- thats the reason we need M-COOL now- before the much cheaper to produce South American beef starts coming in in major amounts- to identify our product- to promote it with the checkoff- to build up a following....

SH- It appears to me from their opposition to wanting their beef identified for the consumer- and their backing of the Packers in the M-COOL fight, that Canada's plan is the same as its been the past 15 years- ride on the shirttails of the US producer- and are content to suck hind teat to what ever the multinational Packer mafia wants to give them....
 
Oldtimer said:
To some extent I agree with you B.C...Like Sandhusker says- thats the reason we need M-COOL now- before the much cheaper to produce South American beef starts coming in in major amounts- to identify our product- to promote it with the checkoff- to build up a following....

SH- It appears to me from their opposition to wanting their beef identified for the consumer- and their backing of the Packers in the M-COOL fight, that Canada's plan is the same as its been the past 15 years- ride on the shirttails of the US producer- and are content to suck hind teat to what ever the multinational Packer mafia wants to give them....

OT - I am going to go out to the flag pole tonight and take my bayonet and blaze a mark on it.

Finally got an answer out of you that did not have a "it is all Bush's fault" mixed up in it. :D

COOL will not protect you - your following will leave it as fast as it comes. Perhaps even faster.

When the lady of the house has money that does not cover the bills AND feed Johnny and Suzie - she will not care where that food comes from - as long as it is cheap she will buy it.

Put your wife in the "no money for food and bills" and ask her what she would do.

If you tell me she says she buys the more expensive product - I am afraid I will not believe you.

Compete now or find a new job.

It all boils down to that.

COOL is fine when times are good - but now is not the time.

Competition. Win the price war or move along.

BC
 
The only problem I have with COOL is the definition of imported beef,,

ALL imported meat should be labeled as to origin. 100% of every dollar spent on imported beef leaves the country,, we don't get a dime. At least, many of us get some return on the calves.

Cattle grazed, fed and slaughtered in the USA should be labeled as such, no matter where they were born,,

Of course that's just MY opinion,,,, I think the extra paper work, separation, and marketing of foreign born, US slaughtered cattle is going to cost us ALL money,,,,

But hell,, I didn't vote for Obama,,, what do I know anyway,,,,

:?
 
Broke Cowboy said:
Oldtimer said:
To some extent I agree with you B.C...Like Sandhusker says- thats the reason we need M-COOL now- before the much cheaper to produce South American beef starts coming in in major amounts- to identify our product- to promote it with the checkoff- to build up a following....

SH- It appears to me from their opposition to wanting their beef identified for the consumer- and their backing of the Packers in the M-COOL fight, that Canada's plan is the same as its been the past 15 years- ride on the shirttails of the US producer- and are content to suck hind teat to what ever the multinational Packer mafia wants to give them....

OT - I am going to go out to the flag pole tonight and take my bayonet and blaze a mark on it.

Finally got an answer out of you that did not have a "it is all Bush's fault" mixed up in it. :D

COOL will not protect you - your following will leave it as fast as it comes. Perhaps even faster.

When the lady of the house has money that does not cover the bills AND feed Johnny and Suzie - she will not care where that food comes from - as long as it is cheap she will buy it.

Put your wife in the "no money for food and bills" and ask her what she would do.

If you tell me she says she buys the more expensive product - I am afraid I will not believe you.

Compete now or find a new job.

It all boils down to that.

COOL is fine when times are good - but now is not the time.

Competition. Win the price war or move along.

BC

So you don't think things will ever get better :???: You think everyone should just throw in the towel and not work to promote their products :???: When I was in Ag-Business school (many a year back) one of the key cirriculum was in marketing- which included promotion and developing a product identity- so pardon me if I don't sell out tomorrow..

Quite evident your either a GLOOM and DOOM Republican that thinks because of one election the world is lost- or a "sit back and ride on the shirttails of the Americans" Canuck :wink: Which from my conversations with some-and the posts on Agri-ville its evident even many of them now are recognizing they've been getting the drippings off the tail from the Multinational Packers and the Meat Mafia cartel- and want to work toward a FAIR and competitive market- and promote their product and get off the US teat....And one of the things they now realize is they can't do that without a way to identify their product from all other....
 
Oldtimer said:
Broke Cowboy said:
Oldtimer said:
To some extent I agree with you B.C...Like Sandhusker says- thats the reason we need M-COOL now- before the much cheaper to produce South American beef starts coming in in major amounts- to identify our product- to promote it with the checkoff- to build up a following....

SH- It appears to me from their opposition to wanting their beef identified for the consumer- and their backing of the Packers in the M-COOL fight, that Canada's plan is the same as its been the past 15 years- ride on the shirttails of the US producer- and are content to suck hind teat to what ever the multinational Packer mafia wants to give them....

OT - I am going to go out to the flag pole tonight and take my bayonet and blaze a mark on it.

Finally got an answer out of you that did not have a "it is all Bush's fault" mixed up in it. :D

COOL will not protect you - your following will leave it as fast as it comes. Perhaps even faster.

When the lady of the house has money that does not cover the bills AND feed Johnny and Suzie - she will not care where that food comes from - as long as it is cheap she will buy it.

Put your wife in the "no money for food and bills" and ask her what she would do.

If you tell me she says she buys the more expensive product - I am afraid I will not believe you.

Compete now or find a new job.

It all boils down to that.

COOL is fine when times are good - but now is not the time.

Competition. Win the price war or move along.

BC

So you don't think things will ever get better :???: You think everyone should just throw in the towel and not work to promote their products :???: When I was in Ag-Business school (many a year back) one of the key cirriculum was in marketing- which included promotion and developing a product identity- so pardon me if I don't sell out tomorrow..

Quite evident your either a GLOOM and DOOM Republican that thinks because of one election the world is lost- or a "sit back and ride on the shirttails of the Americans" Canuck :wink: Which from my conversations with some-and the posts on Agri-ville its evident even many of them now are recognizing they've been getting the drippings off the tail from the Multinational Packers and the Meat Mafia cartel- and want to work toward a FAIR and competitive market- and promote their product and get off the US teat....And one of the things they now realize is they can't do that without a way to identify their product from all other....

Not what I said - what I said was - things are tough and price is the defining factor to millions in your country.

They will get better some day - perhaps longer and farther away than you and I want - and perhaps it will be sooner. We can only hope.

I have not seen that Agri site in over a year - so you have me there - I do not follow it.

As for being a sit on the "shirt tails" Canuck - glad you are there to send me money - I will take all the US bucks you can send me - in fact that is how I am paid now - over here in the middle east.

After all you would not be sending money to Canada and me if you did not need to buy it!! More than 1.3 Billion dollars a day in trade between your country and mine - you cannot go it alone - no matter how much you want to.

And you are buying here because your dollar gives you an advantage!

I suppose you are saying a true American would pay 25% more and buy at home?

Not a sound business proposition - at least the businee college I attended would probably say that.

Free market is not always good - it has hurt me as well - but you can make my bank account grow all you like - I am quite happy to take it.

Your bitterness is not hidden - you need to realize that you cannot win unless you can COMPETE!

You have not learned that yet. Canada is still learning as well - so no need to become angry about it

I did not make the rules - the big boys did - I just play by them.

Approx 20 million people in your country are working to FIND money to eat - they do not care that the label says USA - they want to eat and be able to afford to eat.

Let me see:

Heat my house, feed my family or buy COOL?

If COOL is cheaper it gets the nod - if not it stays on the shelf.

If a business or commodity cannot compete on price it will fail unless it has something to offer that can be clearly seen as having value. You wear your flag with pride and that is good - I support that - but the people in the apartment on floor 27 cannot eat that.

COOL is not the defining factor.

You can label all you want - but if the shopper can only afford the product listed as imported because it is 25% cheaper - then that is the product that will be bought.

I am not Repub - in fact I always vote - but never follow anyone particular party. Although I am quite willing to say I lean towards the small C conservative side.

Remember this one thing when you jump on me - search all the posts I have made here - I think you will find I have always been a COOL supporter - I just do not believe it is on the radar screen of many folks who are struggling to eat.

Finally: I actually did go out and carve your initials on the flag pole - I wonder if anyone will notice tomorrow? :D

Regards

BC
 
I did not make the rules - the big boys did - I just play by them.

I agree with that-- but we can at least level out the playing field and bring a referee back into the game if we (both countries) can get some rules passed/enforced in our favor- like M-COOL, the Packer Ownership Ban, enforcement of the PSA and anti trust laws, the passage of "Fair" Trade acts that are not completely geared to the big Multinational Corporates advantage, etc. etc.....

Teddy could see the need a century ago- but in our countries move towards Corporate Facism over the last 15 years- its went by the wayside....
But I believe people are seeing the light...The trickle down theory turns into " the shirt runs downhill" theory when all the advantage is put at the top...

I believe in corporations. They are indispensable instruments of our modern civilization; but I believe that they should be so supervised and so regulated that they shall act for the interest of the community as a whole.
~Theodore Roosevelt

"Our goal is to spread prosperity and see that prosperity is spread around."
~Theodore Roosevelt
 
Here's the way I see it ,FWIW. Down at the local supermarket in Montana with the flag hanging off the front, they probably have 4 or 5 salesmen coming around or phoning them looking for orders for beef. Two will have multi- label beef and the other three will have only USA product, as it's not worth the trouble for them to do any other. One of the local boy's has been doing the lion's share of the business, but is now at a constant price disadvantage. His relationship keeps him in the market for a while, but the guy with the product of Uruguay soon gets all the grind product as the store finds those buyers are very price conscious and they are losing customers to Wal-mart . Soon after that the Multi-nationals man comes with a super deal on loins because he is able to pass on a special deal he just got and the local guy is out of the market and is sick of hearing constant price objections and doesn't stop any more. He later gets laid off in a cut back and his small packer employer is bought out buy the big muli-national and they shut it down within a year because it's not an efficient plant. The supermarket finds they can make better margins selling the cheaper product, and very few of their customers even notice.

My observation has been that more regulation always favors the big guy. That applies across all industries. They can have a department working to ensure compliance, where the small outfit is overwhelmed.

You have a big Californication going on at capital hill. If that doesn't drown you in a bureaucracy I don't know what will.
Good luck with that.
 
Broke Cowboy said:
Sandhusker said:
Kato said:
Couldn't see that one coming eh? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Cattle imports = jobs for American citizens and profits for American feeders
Beef imports = profits for corporate giants

Closing or restricting trade in live animals will not diminish beef exports. Not one bit. The beef will still come, but it will probably come from countries that produce it cheaper than anyone in North America can. The only losers here are Canadian and American cattle producers. We don't get a fair price here, and you don't stop imports.

That is EXACTLY why we need COOL coordinated with the checkoff so that US beef is promoted and the people can find it. South American beef IS coming, whether we like it or not. We need a plan of action NOW. What's your plan, Kato?

I have never been against COOL - but in the end - if you want to move beef - money talks.

Undercut the imports and they will not come in.

Can't undercut?

Then more and more will arrive at the door.

Mr and Mrs Joe Six Pack in the city most often do not give a damn about where it comes from - price is everything in this day and age. As long as it has a stamp on it that states it has been inspected and is legal for sale in the country.

8% of the U.S. of A. is out of work - they are not interested in the flag - they want to feed their families.

Times get tougher they will care even less.

As times get tougher and the bailout package does not work and the feds come to the well for another trillion plus dollars (God I hope not - but I have a bad feeling) - food will be the driving force in many folks lives - cheaper will be better.

When incomes drop, people do not care about the flag - they care about feeding their families.

I believe you will see a continued rise in imported beef over the next few years - and that rise will not be from your northern neighbour - it will be from South America. And that means beef produced in North America willbe in serious trouble.

Packers are quite happy to help this process along - all in the name of profit - as the flag is not important.

Regards

BC

I beg to differ. If that were the case, generics would outsell brand names in the grocery stores. Bud, Miller, and Coors would not be the biggest sellers of beer. I can offer up plenty of examples that prove that there are many things that consumers value more than simply price.
 
Sandhusker said:
Broke Cowboy said:
Sandhusker said:
That is EXACTLY why we need COOL coordinated with the checkoff so that US beef is promoted and the people can find it. South American beef IS coming, whether we like it or not. We need a plan of action NOW. What's your plan, Kato?

I have never been against COOL - but in the end - if you want to move beef - money talks.

Undercut the imports and they will not come in.

Can't undercut?

Then more and more will arrive at the door.

Mr and Mrs Joe Six Pack in the city most often do not give a damn about where it comes from - price is everything in this day and age. As long as it has a stamp on it that states it has been inspected and is legal for sale in the country.

8% of the U.S. of A. is out of work - they are not interested in the flag - they want to feed their families.

Times get tougher they will care even less.

As times get tougher and the bailout package does not work and the feds come to the well for another trillion plus dollars (God I hope not - but I have a bad feeling) - food will be the driving force in many folks lives - cheaper will be better.

When incomes drop, people do not care about the flag - they care about feeding their families.

I believe you will see a continued rise in imported beef over the next few years - and that rise will not be from your northern neighbour - it will be from South America. And that means beef produced in North America willbe in serious trouble.

Packers are quite happy to help this process along - all in the name of profit - as the flag is not important.

Regards

BC

I beg to differ. If that were the case, generics would outsell brand names in the grocery stores. Bud, Miller, and Coors would not be the biggest sellers of beer. I can offer up plenty of examples that prove that there are many things that consumers value more than simply price.


Those are "BRANDS" not just generic made in the USA beer.
 

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