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Border Poll

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Anonymous

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MyCattle has a poll running about the effect of the border---

How will the border opening on March 7 to cattle under 30 months of age affect your operation?`

It won't. 8%
It will help. 15%
It will hurt. 58%
Not sure yet. 19%

Total Votes: 59
 

Tam

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Did any of the 58% explain how it will hurt their operation?

Could these 58% not be living close to one of the slaughter plants that are closing which will result in hauling their cattle farther to market?

Do they not think that the a decrease in slaughter capacity will result in less competition for their cattle when they sell them?
 

alabama

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Supply and demand! I would bet the calf market wil take a nose dive. When they flood the market with calves the price is sure to drop. :(
 

Tam

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Alabama said:
Supply and demand! I would bet the calf market wil take a nose dive. When they flood the market with calves the price is sure to drop. :(

What part of the NCBA and USDA reports on Canadian cattle numbers didn't you read. Canada has increased our slaughter capacity by 22% and our feedlots are current, where is the flood ? :x
 

alabama

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I would suspect the flood will come off the farms. Every calf born in the last 3 years will hit the market. A lot of folks have been holding back calves wating for the border to open.
 
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BEEF QUALITY CONNECTION

Produced by Drovers in cooperation with Certified Angus Beef LLC, "Beef Quality Connection" is published every two weeks. Its objective is to provide useful business information to help beef producers improve the quality of their herds and the beef they market. The information is intended to be applicable to production of any breed.


OPINION POLL
How will the border opening on March 7 to cattle under 30 months of age affect your operation?`

It won't. 8%
It will help. 14%
It will hurt. 59%
Not sure yet. 19%

Total Votes: 63
 

Tam

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Tell me how many ranchers do you think could afford to hold on to three years worth calve when that is all they could sell to pay their bills. They would have to feed those calves and the worthless cull cows along with the rest of their herd and with Bankers breathing don't their neck how could they afford that. Get really calves have been the only paycheck since the price of cull cattle tanked. :x
 

Moose

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Doesn't anyone realize that a large percentage of our calves have been finished and crossed the border in boxes? The only 3 year old calves up here are replacement heifers.
 

alabama

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Well Tam; I just don't see how adding calves to the market will get me more for my calves. "splane" that if you will and I may change my vote.
 

Kato

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I guess it depends on how many calves end up being added. I know we don't have any extras at our place. We have always sold our calves in February and March if we don't finish them, and that's what we are going to do this year. The expectation is that they are going to Ontario, not south.

I don't know anyone around here who is waiting for the border so they can sell their calves, because for one thing, it's been dangled in front of us and taken away so many times that no one trusts that it will open. The general attitude has developed that it'll be nice to have it open, but no one is making any business decisions based on it happening. If it does, bonus. If it doesn't, we can deal with that too.

Another indication that the 'flood' isn't going to happen is the fact that from what I heard the other day, the big packers in Alberta are working four day weeks now.

Shipping fats south may not be the joy ride some would think either. I read some preliminary rules the other day that had a worrisome line about the fact that Canadian cattle that failed the 'mouth' test would be tanked and the seller would get nothing but potentially a bill for disposal. Boy, talk about being at the mercy of the packer! No way to confirm anything. Just their word. Scary thought.
 

Tam

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Alabama said:
Well Tam; I just don't see how adding calves to the market will get me more for my calves. "splane" that if you will and I may change my vote.

Tell me what good is it going to do to close slaughter plants in the US because they don't have enough cattle to slaughter.? The US slaughter industry have geared up over the years to handle the US and Canadian cattle. They has gone through the down turn in Cattle numbers in the US because of drought, but now there will be less coming to slaughter because the US herd is starting to rebuild and they see the Canadian cattle supply slipping away. Canada is increasing slaughter capacity and that is not what the US slaughter industry wants or needs as they know that will add to their competition for cattle and markets and cut out the need for some of the slaughter capacity south of the border. If they close those plants that means there is less competition for your cattle. Less competition results in lower prices.
 

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Some of those plants south of the border have already shut down, some are only running at half capacity. I read in the Western Producer a few weeks back how some states have lost millions of dollars in revenue because of that. I would think having our calves going down there for slaughter would rectify that. I'm not saying that prices for american cattle won't drop, because in reality, they most likely will. But in the end the consumer will be happy, because the price should drop in the store which will increase demand.
 

Murgen

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Wow, 63 respondents, Ipos reid would be proud of the accuracy in this poll.
 

Aaron

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Alabama, don't worry. Three things that the average US producer has to put into perspective when considering March 7.

1. We don't have the trucking capacity. Most guys up here have left cattle trucking to haul bulk and dry goods as there is money available from doing back hauls all the time. If there is any huge lineups on March 7, I will just about guarantee you that most of the trucks would be carrying US plates.

2. Heifers have to be spayed. I can't see anyone taking a real interest in shipping even a few hundred heifers if they have to go through the hassle of spaying them. You can guarantee that the feedlots will be docking the price of spaying off of the cow/calf guy's cheque, so where is the incentive for the Canadian producer to ship heifers that can help replace the aging cowherd?

3. Every calf has to have a CAN? or CDN? brand (not sure which acronym). The only ones who are going to be taking this step are the feedlots. Sure we have calves on individual cow/calf operations that could go, but the average producer is not about to go through the hassle of roundup and branding his yearlings. Most of us will leave the feedlots with that responsibility as they are going to be doing them before they leave the feedlot anyways.
 

3words

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It will be pretty hard for us to flood your market,the truckers that hauled these cattle down,had to find new job's in the trucking industry,because there was no work for those trucker's,once the border was closed.There is already a shortage of trucker's in canada,and lot's of trucker's don't want to get there boot's dirty or haul cattle.So they are going to have a hard time finding people,to drive these truck's.I wish i had 3 years worth of calves to sell,but in reallity bill's still had to pay.I don't even know of anyone,that has 2 years worth of calve's to sell!!
 

Tam

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Shelly said:
Some of those plants south of the border have already shut down, some are only running at half capacity. I read in the Western Producer a few weeks back how some states have lost millions of dollars in revenue because of that. I would think having our calves going down there for slaughter would rectify that. I'm not saying that prices for american cattle won't drop, because in reality, they most likely will. But in the end the consumer will be happy, because the price should drop in the store which will increase demand.

I agree there are plants that have closed and are cutting shift but some of these US cattle producers can't see any further than they own pocket. They don't see it as a big whole in the US economy. Who will fund the US Government, when they aren't collecting tax from these laid off workers, and the other laid off workers because these people don't have an income to pay their bills. The next time the US government cuts an Ag program that beneifits producers, I hope these producers will think about where that money to fund that program could have come from if these employees were back working in those closed slaughter plants and were paying taxes, instead of living on welfare. And I agree about the demand , lower prices at the grocery store and more people having jobs to pay for the beef should increase demand and therefore price to producers
 
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Anonymous

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How about all those "BSE SUBSIDY calves" everybody got to keep? Didn't Canada pay everyone $200 per head to keep up to 40% of their calves? When those hit the market Canadian producers can cut costs by $200 per head since they already been paid once for them........Feeders that bought them can drop fat prices by $200.....

FAIR TRADE :lol:
 

Shelly

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I wish I had two or three years worth of calves to sell! But like you and Tam said, bills needed to be paid, whether we liked the price we received for our hard work or not.
 

Shelly

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Do you have any idea of how many producers kept back their calves for a measly $200? Not very many! A) You couldn't afford to keep them over for $200, and B) the paperwork was a hassle!
 
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Anonymous

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3words said:
It will be pretty hard for us to flood your market,the truckers that hauled these cattle down,had to find new job's in the trucking industry,because there was no work for those trucker's,once the border was closed.There is already a shortage of trucker's in canada,and lot's of trucker's don't want to get there boot's dirty or haul cattle.So they are going to have a hard time finding people,to drive these truck's.

Still a lot of people south of the 49th that have to work for a living and don't mind getting their boots dirty-- they will find all the trucks they need.....
 

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