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bred cow prices

J

Justin

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2008
Messages
4,785
Location
NW South Dakota
IMO...these cows, young and old, are getting a little carried away. if the calf market does drop or crash, what are these breds that people are paying $1500+ for gonna look like? i sure as hell wouldn't want to go out and look at them. without a crystal ball, seems like WAY to much risk for my level of comfort.
 
Was in at farm credit just after christmas doing up the paper work on a new haybine,and they sure tried talking me in to going and buying more cattle.I finally told them they are to rich for my blood,and i don't feel comfortable taking that big of a gamble.
 
Justin said:
IMO...these cows, young and old, are getting a little carried away. if the calf market does drop or crash, what are these breds that people are paying $1500+ for gonna look like? i sure as hell wouldn't want to go out and look at them. without a crystal ball, seems like WAY to much risk for my level of comfort.
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It seems unreasonable. but as far as bred hfrs go they need to be that high to justify rasieing them . watched fats sell at tama iowa on cattle usa and 1355 pound fat hereford hfrs brought a 106 that 1436 dollars a head. and they didn't have to sync the hfrs up AI them buy a clean up bull and every thing else a person could do to try and add value and still feed them.Old cows are still worth 7 hundred dollars a head just to chop there head off them you stick a potential 700 dollar calf in them . but it is going to be ugly if the bottom does come out
 
But on the flip side.......... lots and lots of heifers were shipped to feedlots because of the money they brought as feeders instead of being kept as breeders. Lots and lots of cull cows were culled even deeper because of the cash they brought as burger. Smallest cow herd in America since the 1940's. It won't take many calves at $800 to $1000 to pay for a $1500 dollar young cow who should produce 10-14 calves. If a guy has the range and the feed those bred cows look better than you might think. Just sayin'. :wink: Oh, you'll also need the $1500 a head when ya go pick em' out.
 
Justin said:
IMO...these cows, young and old, are getting a little carried away. if the calf market does drop or crash, what are these breds that people are paying $1500+ for gonna look like? i sure as hell wouldn't want to go out and look at them. without a crystal ball, seems like WAY to much risk for my level of comfort.
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I agree. I held back more hiefers than I usually do to increase my cow numbers, but at almost $1000/ head for these open heifers I'm starting to rethink that. Two years ago was the time to build your herd, I'm not so sure now is the time to do it. But then again I've been wrong before.
 
leanin' H said:
But on the flip side.......... lots and lots of heifers were shipped to feedlots because of the money they brought as feeders instead of being kept as breeders. Lots and lots of cull cows were culled even deeper because of the cash they brought as burger. Smallest cow herd in America since the 1940's. It won't take many calves at $800 to $1000 to pay for a $1500 dollar young cow who should produce 10-14 calves. If a guy has the range and the feed those bred cows look better than you might think. Just sayin'. :wink: Oh, you'll also need the $1500 a head when ya go pick em' out.
Click to expand...

if prices hold out, then yes, i agree with you. but nobody knows that, therefor..to much risk. IMO
 
3words said:
Was in at farm credit just after christmas doing up the paper work on a new haybine,and they sure tried talking me in to going and buying more cattle.I finally told them they are to rich for my blood,and i don't feel comfortable taking that big of a gamble.
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that sounds like the Farm Credit i use to deal with. sounds like you might have a nice place and they would like to own it. :wink:
 
It's always been that when cattle were cheap, bankers hesitate to loan
money to buy them, but when they get high they encourage it. Looks
like they would learn after awhile.

Hey guys, try to just sit back and enjoy the high prices
instead of fretting...unless you are buying cows, that is. :wink: I hope
the prices hold and with cow numbers as low as they are, I believe
they will.

I just watched Superior sell 850# steers for $124.00 for May
delivery. Pretty nice ticket!
 
Justin said:
leanin' H said:
But on the flip side.......... lots and lots of heifers were shipped to feedlots because of the money they brought as feeders instead of being kept as breeders. Lots and lots of cull cows were culled even deeper because of the cash they brought as burger. Smallest cow herd in America since the 1940's. It won't take many calves at $800 to $1000 to pay for a $1500 dollar young cow who should produce 10-14 calves. If a guy has the range and the feed those bred cows look better than you might think. Just sayin'. :wink: Oh, you'll also need the $1500 a head when ya go pick em' out.
Click to expand...

if prices hold out, then yes, i agree with you. but nobody knows that, therefor..to much risk. IMO
Click to expand...

You do realize that you just admitted agreeing with me and Northern Rancher in the same week don't ya? :???: What's the world coming to? :shock: :lol: :lol:

Those numbers for bred cows scare off lots of folks. Most folks who make a lot of money don't do what a lot of folks do. :wink: Remember, if your getting $900 + for feeder heifers what does that make a good replacement heifer that will still need to be bred and run for a year before she calves? And another 8 months before you can ship her calf? I still think $1500 is about market value considering where the rest of the market has been lately. You are 8 months away from getting over half your money back and you'll still have a good young cow. If prices drop you are 8 months away from selling a $500 dollar calf and you still have a good young cow that increases your cow numbers for years to come when everybody else was shrinking their herd to chase the money now. In the long run it makes sense, even if prices dive. If prices stay high on calves it makes sense in to the short run too. :D
 
i thought about buying back.but the cost of the tractor,haybine,baler,and the maintaince to feed them changed my mind.along with the labor !!

i can rent my ground out for more profit and little labor.rent to a gambler who has a good bluff.u can't lose if you're make'n a profit.
 
leanin' H said:
Justin said:
leanin' H said:
But on the flip side.......... lots and lots of heifers were shipped to feedlots because of the money they brought as feeders instead of being kept as breeders. Lots and lots of cull cows were culled even deeper because of the cash they brought as burger. Smallest cow herd in America since the 1940's. It won't take many calves at $800 to $1000 to pay for a $1500 dollar young cow who should produce 10-14 calves. If a guy has the range and the feed those bred cows look better than you might think. Just sayin'. :wink: Oh, you'll also need the $1500 a head when ya go pick em' out.
Click to expand...

if prices hold out, then yes, i agree with you. but nobody knows that, therefor..to much risk. IMO
Click to expand...

You do realize that you just admitted agreeing with me and Northern Rancher in the same week don't ya? :???: What's the world coming to? :shock: :lol: :lol:

Those numbers for bred cows scare off lots of folks. Most folks who make a lot of money don't do what a lot of folks do. :wink: Remember, if your getting $900 + for feeder heifers what does that make a good replacement heifer that will still need to be bred and run for a year before she calves? And another 8 months before you can ship her calf? I still think $1500 is about market value considering where the rest of the market has been lately. You are 8 months away from getting over half your money back and you'll still have a good young cow. If prices drop you are 8 months away from selling a $500 dollar calf and you still have a good young cow that increases your cow numbers for years to come when everybody else was shrinking their herd to chase the money now. In the long run it makes sense, even if prices dive. If prices stay high on calves it makes sense in to the short run too. :D
Click to expand...

do you boys out in your neck of the woods not feed your cows all year long? you are saying a $800 calf is putting over half the cost of the heifer back in your pocket :shock: ? must be nice to have the cost of production be $0. :?

as for agreeing with you and NR...it worries me aswell. :wink:
 
Justin said:
leanin' H said:
Justin said:
if prices hold out, then yes, i agree with you. but nobody knows that, therefor..to much risk. IMO
Click to expand...

You do realize that you just admitted agreeing with me and Northern Rancher in the same week don't ya? :???: What's the world coming to? :shock: :lol: :lol:

Those numbers for bred cows scare off lots of folks. Most folks who make a lot of money don't do what a lot of folks do. :wink: Remember, if your getting $900 + for feeder heifers what does that make a good replacement heifer that will still need to be bred and run for a year before she calves? And another 8 months before you can ship her calf? I still think $1500 is about market value considering where the rest of the market has been lately. You are 8 months away from getting over half your money back and you'll still have a good young cow. If prices drop you are 8 months away from selling a $500 dollar calf and you still have a good young cow that increases your cow numbers for years to come when everybody else was shrinking their herd to chase the money now. In the long run it makes sense, even if prices dive. If prices stay high on calves it makes sense in to the short run too. :D
Click to expand...

do you boys out in your neck of the woods not feed your cows all year long? you are saying a $800 calf is putting over half the cost of the heifer back in your pocket :shock: ? must be nice to have the cost of production be $0. :?

as for agreeing with you and NR...it worries me aswell. :wink:
Click to expand...

Read what I said........IF you have the grass and hay. :wink: Sure it costs you more than that to run the cow and raise a calf. But answer me this..........how much will you make off of a cow you don't have? :wink: I get what you are sayin' Justin. I probably won't be stockin' up at these prices either. But if a guy had the money and the groceries available, by the time everyone else decides to bring up their numbers, your initial bunch of cows would be close to being paid for and you could start the process over.
 
It's hard to get over the sticker shock of the price tag on things these days. For example, back in the 80's I bought the first land I ever owned. At the time I didn't know if or how I would get it paid for in 20 years. Today I spend more on inputs on the irrigated portion to put in a corn crop each year than I paid for the land. That gives you a little perspective on the way inflation has affected things. Granted, I bought the place at the best possible time after the land bubble burst a few years earlier. Should have bought 10 times more in hindsight but at the time I didn't have the money or the courage.

Relating that all to cattle prices. Our perspective goes back to earlier cattle cycles. Most of us know how low prices have gone in the past. I would think that the new lows will be considerably higher than our old lows. As long as you can keep your debt manageable these bred cattle prices are probably in line with inflation. As long as we can keep exporting beef to a hungry world I think the cow calf man is in for a good run.
 

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