Jason said:
1) First, the good old days, are you willing to go back to stock racks on 3 ton trucks to haul cattle? Small 2wd tractors and pick-ups that get 4 mpg? How long would you last? How much subsidy would it take to support your family?
2) Every farmer/rancher today can raise far more units of their production with less labor because of advancements in machinery and genetics.
3) elevators close to every producer, but with the internet and toll free numbers they are seconds away from bidding your grain. Super-B grain trailers make 500 mile hauls feasible where they never used to be even considered.
4) feeding). If Cargill suddenly gets a bunch of this barley at the "new" price they have to move it. They are above the market price, do they sell at a loss? Where do they sell it? The main outlet is feedlots. If they sell to other feedlots they have just lost money and put the barley back into other feedlots.
5) XL, Tyson or shipping fats to the States pays more, will the feedlot sell to Cargill with a lowball price? We both know the answer to that.
6) Information is power.
Good points Jason, however there are a couple things that I disagree with:
1) & 2) No, I wouldn't want to give up my modern trucks and tractors (although I will be moving back to feeding with horse in a year, simply to save on money), but then thats not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about receiving a fair dollar for my work and efforts.
As you say, we've made great strides in the amount of productivity, however the profit per unit has dropped. Why, as a producer, do I have to be the one to take the risks, increase my productivity, spend the bucks, only to see my increased productivity get stuffed into someone else's pocket? And this is happening. 40 years ago, my folks ran 50 mangy Shorthorns and Red Polls and some grain land. It was enough to buy a new truck every few years, keep us fed and watered, and build a reasonably nice home. These days, despite the increased productivity, 100 head won't do that, and it takes more work to raise 100 head now than it did to raise 50 head then. I've increased my productivity, my workload and taken larger risks but see no increased benefit. I have a problem with a world like that.
3) The promise of the internet hasn't come through yet, at least not for grain producers in Western Canada. Prices fluctuate wildly, so by the time you call around, get quotes, send in your samples, the price may have dropped 10-20 cents/bushel. And with the price of diesel and poor commodity prices, that extra 500 miles the B train has to make may eliminate the profit.
4) Large corporations that buy above current market prices likely won't sell immediately. At least not well run ones and well captialized ones. If they buy above market conditions, they'll stockpile until market conditions permit the sale. I never put any timelines in my example, and perhaps should have, but I'm not talking about overnight results. Many North American corporations have finally begun taking a more Japanese view of business and think in decades, not months.
Also bear in mind that my little example of a two commodity marketplace is pretty limited. If "Corp A" has their paws in 7 or 8 related markets, it would be very easy to heavily influence pricing in any of those markets by making small adjustments in the other markets.
5) If the feedlots are locked in with a contract, they don't have much choice of where to ship to.
6) Certainly. And I try to keep myself abreast of current conditions. More so than many of my fellow producers. Ya see, if I can't convince my government to bring about changes to allow the smaller family farm to be viable again, then I have every intention that my children or grandchildren will own the corporate farm, not just be a peon working it.
Rod