COF report

[redrobin]

Interesting.

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on January 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below January 1, 2012. The inventory included 7.05 million steers and steer calves, down 3 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.07 million head, down 9 percent from 2012.

Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.66 million, 1 percent below 2011. Net placements were 1.59 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 495,000, 600-699 pounds were 415,000, 700-799 pounds were 379,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 375,000.


Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.92 million, 6 percent below 2011. Net placements were 1.84 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 645,000, 600-699 pounds were 450,000, 700-799 pounds were 375,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 453,000.

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Number : Percent of
Item :---------------------------:
: 2011 : 2012 revious year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- 1,000 head ---- percent
:
On feed December 1 ..................: 11,620 12,065 104
Placed on feed during December ......: 1,789 1,683 94
Fed cattle marketed during December .: 1,830 1,796 98
Other disappearance during December .: 65 91 140
On feed January 1 ...................: 11,514 11,861 103

 

[Anonymous]

I watched parts of the Mill Bar Angus sale from McCook, NE today on DVD Auction..

And while they had the nomal $20,000 bull and a few around $10,000 and then some around $2500-- the part I caught that peeked my interest the most was they sold a load of commercial replacement heifer calves for $1560 a piece....

 

[Hereford76]

watched a group of 79 commercial 2012 hereford open replacement heifers bring $1760/hd.

 

[Anonymous]

watched a group of 79 commercial 2012 hereford open replacement heifers bring $1760/hd.

Has to be some optimistic ranchers and bankers out there..

 

[redrobin]

Two bullish scenarios

Sharply lower than expected placements raise two possibilities. But first, the background. Before the report, trade chatter indicated lack of hoped for moisture had resulted in poor wheat pastures, causing traders to think more young cattle had been forced into feed yards.

The lower than expected placements could suggest that wheat pastures are in better shape than generally had been perceived. If so, more cattle are on pastures. They'll come into feedlots on a more normal schedule. As a result they'll go to the fed cattle market somewhat later. That would be a bit friendly for near-term beef prices, but a bit negative for summer.

The placement shortfall could also suggest the feeder cattle flat out do not exist. That would be overall bullish. Traders will get more clues Feb. 1 when USDA releases its annual head count in the Cattle Report.

http://farmfutures.com/story-incredible-shrinking-feedlot-inventory-bullish-cattle-prices-17-94065

 

[leanin' H]

Thanks for the info Redrobin! I never had watched for info like what you provided til i found this site. I enjoy trying to figure out where prices are heading even though it mostly causes headaches. :lol:

 

[Anonymous]

Northern Ag Network


Between Friday's friendly on-feed report and Japan announcing they're easing beef import restrictions, Monday morning is starting out with a bang for the cattle markets!! We are seeing triple-digit gains at the open.

Japan to Ease Restrictions for US Beef on Feb. 1

Northern Ag Network posted on January 28, 2013 09:23 :: 82 Views




The following is a press release from the USDA Office of Communications:



Washington, D.C. – United States Trade Representative Ron Kirk and United States Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced that the United States and Japan have agreed on new terms and conditions which pave the way for expanded exports of U.S. beef and beef products to Japan. Under these new terms, which enter into effect on February 1, 2013, Japan will now permit the import of beef from cattle less than 30 months of age, compared to the previous limit of 20 months, among other steps. It is estimated that these important changes will result in hundreds of millions of dollars in exports of U.S. beef to Japan in the coming years. This agreement also goes a long way toward normalizing trade with Japan by addressing long-standing restrictions that Japan introduced in response to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).



"This is great news for American ranchers and beef companies, who can now – as a result of this agreement – increase their exports of U.S. beef to their largest market for beef in Asia," said Ambassador Kirk. "This represents a significant and historic step in expanding U.S. beef trade with Japan and growing American exports and jobs here at home. We welcome Japan's action."



"Today's announcement reflects another successful effort by the Obama Administration that boosts the bottom line for America's agriculture. We are in the most successful period in history for America's agriculture sector, with agricultural exports this year expected to set yet another record," said Secretary Vilsack. "We will continue our efforts to break down barriers and expand access for high-quality, safe and wholesome U.S. food and agricultural products to Japan and around the world."



The two governments also agreed to regular and ad hoc consultations to review progress under the agreement and address any issues that may arise. In an accompanying letter exchange, Japan also confirms its ongoing BSE risk assessment by its Food Safety Commission (FSC), which includes a consideration of raising the age limit above 30 months for beef and beef product imports from the United States, taking into account international standards. To view the letter from Ambassador Kirk and Secretary Vilsack to Ambassador Sasae, click here. To view the letter from Ambassador Sasae to Ambassador Kirk and Secretary Vilsack, click here.



Background



In December 2003, Japan banned U.S. beef and beef products following the detection of a bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-positive animal in the United States. In July 2006, Japan partially reopened its market to allow imports of some U.S. beef from animals aged 20 months or younger produced under a special program for Japan.



In December 2011, at the request of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW), Japan's independent Food Safety Commission (FSC) initiated a risk assessment to examine raising the maximum age of the cattle from which U.S. and certain other foreign beef and beef products could be exported to Japan, as well as revising the definition of specified risk materials (SRMs). (SRMs are certain cattle tissues that can carry the BSE agent.) Based on an FSC risk assessment released last October, Japan entered into consultations with the United States to revise the import requirements, including raising the age limit for U.S. cattle and adopting a revised definition of SRMs for U.S. beef and beef product imports that is closely aligned with international standards of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).

Higher- Higher- Higher :wink: :clap:

 

[Aladar]

Wrong way to handle this.

Should have voluntarily lowered the restriction to 18 months of age on all exports. This effectively raises the standard and over time drives the price of beef higher.

Short term, this will be good for the cattle industry, long term it will be a noose around the North American cattle industry's neck.

 

[redrobin]

long term it will be a noose around the North American cattle industry's neck.

How so?

 

[Anonymous]

U.S. Cattle Herd Smallest Since 1952

Northern Ag Network posted on February 01, 2013 14:14 :: 26 Views




The USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) released on Friday afternoon its January 2013 inventory numbers for cattle, sheep, and goats.



All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2013 totaled 89.3 million head, 2 percent below the 90.8 million on January 1, 2012. This is the lowest January 1 inventory of all cattle and calves since the 88.1 million on hand in 1952.

 

[redrobin]

The 2012 calf crop was estimated at 34.3 million head, down 3% from 2011. This is the smallest calf crop since the 33.7 million born during 1949. Calves born during the first half of 2012 are estimated at 25.0 million, down 3% from 2011.

 

[redrobin]

All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2013 totaled 89.3 million head, 2% below the 90.8 million on January 1, 2012. This is the lowest January 1 inventory of all cattle and calves since the 88.1 million on hand in 1952.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 38.5 million, were down 2% from the 39.4 million on January 1, 2012. This is the lowest January 1 inventory of all cows and heifers that have calved since the 36.8 million head in 1941.

• Beef cows, at 29.3 million, were down 3% from January 1, 2012.

• Milk cows, at 9.2 million, unchanged from January 1, 2012.

Other class estimates on January 1, 2013 and the change from January 1, 2012, are as follows:

• All heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.1 million, down 1 percent.

• Beef replacement heifers, 5.4 million, up 2%.

• Milk replacement heifers, 4.6 million, down 2%.

• Other heifers, 9.2 million, down 3%.

• Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 15.8 million, unchanged.

• Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, down 2%.

• Calves under 500 pounds, 13.8 million, down 2%.

• Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 13.4 million, down 5%

• The combined total of calves under 500 pounds, and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds outside of feedlots was 25.5 million, up 1%.

 

[redrobin]

United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on
February 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below February 1, 2012.

 

[Black Out]

United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on
February 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below February 1, 2012.

So Redrobin when should I market my yearlings ?

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on
February 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below February 1, 2012.

So Redrobin when should I market my yearlings ?

The market seemed soft up here this week.

Are your yearlings short keeps or grassers?

 

[Black Out]

United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on
February 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below February 1, 2012.

So Redrobin when should I market my yearlings ?

The market seemed soft up here this week.

Are your yearlings short keeps or grassers?

Both Probably 700 pounders to 550 pounders it was really down here this week we were supposed to sell two loads of steers but with the weather forecast we decided to pull them from the sale we were glad we did.

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

So Redrobin when should I market my yearlings ?

The market seemed soft up here this week.

Are your yearlings short keeps or grassers?

Both Probably 700 pounders to 550 pounders it was really down here this week we were supposed to sell two loads of steers but with the weather forecast we decided to pull them from the sale we were glad we did.

You would think the areas that got good moisture might be wanting grassers more now. This darn political mess also messes with the markets. :?

 

[Black Out]

The market seemed soft up here this week.

Are your yearlings short keeps or grassers?

Both Probably 700 pounders to 550 pounders it was really down here this week we were supposed to sell two loads of steers but with the weather forecast we decided to pull them from the sale we were glad we did.

You would think the areas that got good moisture might be wanting grassers more now. This darn political mess also messes with the markets. :?

BMR do you still have your calves ?

 

[mrj]

It's great some areas got good amounts of moisture, however the drought is FAR from over in the plains states, certainly in the northwestern plains. If snow and moisture content were really good, our calves would be going on grass in May.

Those cattle numbers and comparisons with previous years are one thing, and probably interesting.

Knowing the weight difference between past years and very recent years seems far more 'interesting' to me.

Isn't it a fact that current tonnage is MORE than back when there were so many more cows? Not sure how many years back that involves, tho.

mrj

 

[redrobin]

United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on
February 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below February 1, 2012.

So Redrobin when should I market my yearlings ?

January :lol:
You're the marketing king. You tell me when to sell mine.