Corn crop, prices etc

[Nicky]

For those of you in the corn belt...how is the corn crop looking and what do you think prices are going to do? We know it's down now, but do you think it's going to stay that way? Someone said it's getting dry, is that still the case?

We're trying to decide if we want to sell(contract) our calves now or if we should wait a bit.

Thanks in advance

 

[leanin' H]

A good neighbor of mine contracted his steers for september delivery 2 weeks ago. 580 lbs steers got $1.60 and his 520 heifers went $1.54

He and I agreed that it would be hard to turn that down. And if you'd been offered that 10 years ago, you may of passed out. He set a buy it now price and they were gone as soon as they listed them. Hope you make the decision that works best for you guys. Good luck

 

[Faster horses]

I watched Northern Livestock Video on Tuesday and it seemed to me like all the calves brought from $900-$950/head regardless of weight, which makes the lighter calves worth more per lb. and the heavy calves worth less.
One of our customers sold their steer calves. They brought $175.50 @ 540# ($947.00) Those are mostly April calves and they are selling 93 head out of 115. They were 1/4 Black Simm and 3/4 Angus.

I watched some black calves sell from Glasgow, Mt and they were in at 565# and sold for $170.50 ($960). I don't know whose calves they were, but I was impressed with the cows. They sold 158 head of steer calves. ($960)

Some 525# steer calves from Absarokee, Mt sold for $168.75 The description said NO TAGS, whatever that means.

225 steer calves south of Malta were in at 550# and they brought $172.50 ($948.)

Some lighter calves that weighed 475, 130 head of steers, brought $1.89.
They were located east of Jordan, Mt. ($897.)

Ross Ranch at Jordan are (or were) long time Angus seedstock breeders. Their steer calves were in at 525 (April and May calves) and they brought
$1.8575 ($975.) They were selling 535 steer calves.

Another set from up around Jordan--210 steer calves, 495#@$1.8475
($914.)

One set from Colstrip, Mt. weighed 475# and brought $193.50 ($919) These calves were all born in 30 days from start to finish.

I really meant to watch the heavy calves sell on Wednesday, but Wednesday morning got really hectic around here so I missed it. I would imagine they would post a market report from that sale soon. It was on tv on Dish Network, but nothing on Direct TV, so I watched it online.
Their next sale is Aug. 19-20.

Pretty good ticket on all of them. I didn't write down what the heifer mates brought. One set of black heifers that was announced the owners kept none back and the calves would make replacement heifers brought only $1 less per pound than the steers.

Hope this helps!

 

[George]

The corn and beans in east central Indiana are on pace to set a record harvest - - - but I have heard other parts of the country are not as good

Last year we set a record also - - - worst field was 8 bu of corn to the acre - - - we normally average around 200 dry bu but that is because we have some very good river bottom ground that will bump 300 but never has quite made it yet - - - maybe this year

 

[Red Barn Angus]

My corn looks about as good as I've seen in years but it won't yield anything like George's. We don't have that kind of corn country but for this area I think it will be real good if the showers will continue. It is raining on it right now but I had to swath hay yesterday to get the rain today! Much of the corn in this area is just average as the rains have been spotted. The local elevator is quoting $4.49 per bushel for October corn. Last year I sold the little corn I had for $8.40. I'm not sure too many farmers are going to let their crop go for the lower price but the markets are pretty much weather markets now anyway. Things could change later on but I think corn will definitely be much lower this year. Just my 2 cents.

 

[mwj]

My brother is partner on a 5000+ sow operation that produces feeder pigs. He was at the board meeting today and said they locked in a large December corn contract at $4.90 a bushel. He was happy since feed is there major expense!

 

[3 M L & C]

Last year was the worst nation wide drought in a long while. Still was in the top ten for all time bushels raised in US. This year there is way more acres and a lot better crop. Plus carry over from last year was way more than anticipated. The only thing that might make corn higher than now is that a fair amount of corn was planted a bit late because of a wet spring and an early winter might hurt them. I predicted on here last winter that corn would be 4 dollars come harvest 2013 and I still believe it.

As for when to sell who knows I think each local market is going to be completely different. Even though corn may be 4 bucks the basis around here might be a dollar over locally. Because there is only going to be about 5% of dry land corn harvested in the northwest 10 counties in kansas. And the irrigated is going to be far below average. So the corn just isn't going to be around.

 

[Denny]

I hope $4 corn the corn guys need a reality check plowing up every rock pile and cow pasture they can. Actually $3 corn would be good for a few years in my opinion. Fertilizer and seed may have an adjustment that way.


Yearlings in Valentine NE. Sold last week up in the $1400 a head range.

 

[jigs]

$8 corn has guys here tilling up every piece of dirt they can, now we are so dry it is getting bleak. the Eastern Corn Belt looks to make a big crop, and we will be average to below average here....60% of the dry land corn here is going to be a failure.

keeping corn below $5 would be a good thing, in my opinion....bring things back to normal.

I can not figure the guys last year buying new combines ....... $400,000 for something that is used one month a year, and does the same exact job that my $30,000 combine does.....
it is easy to pay off a $400 K machine on $8 corn, but $4 corn makes things get real tight!

 

[tenbach79]

$8 corn has guys here tilling up every piece of dirt they can, now we are so dry it is getting bleak. the Eastern Corn Belt looks to make a big crop, and we will be average to below average here....60% of the dry land corn here is going to be a failure.

keeping corn below $5 would be a good thing, in my opinion....bring things back to normal.

I can not figure the guys last year buying new combines ....... $400,000 for something that is used one month a year, and does the same exact job that my $30,000 combine does.....
it is easy to pay off a $400 K machine on $8 corn, but $4 corn makes things get real tight!

Or pay $2900 for dry land ground some big farmers just paid in my area a couple days ago. All of us on the far western edge of the corn belt can't make corn work at $3 a bushel and I can tell you the price of fertilizer and seed corn will never go down if corn prices go that low.

 

[3 M L & C]

The only input that fluctuates with price is fertilizer. If you think seed price is going to go down your dreaming. It hasnt went down since i have been alive. Same with rent and equipment and repairs no way any of that is coming down in price. As for the combine. I dought your 30000 combine can harvest what a 400000 combine can jigs. When your main income is from the farm your payday is once a year. When you have millions of dollars just setting out there waiting to be harvested every second counts. I find it mildly amusing how cattlemen always hope for the farmer to do it for nothing. Hasn't the past few years of cattle prices been good as well as crops? I know the feedlots have had ups and downs but that is just how they work regardless of corn price. We have fed a few cattle in the local feedyard and the most money we ever made was when corn was 6 dollars a few years back. As for farming every little piece of ground. I hate that also I planted some grass back on some ground I bought a few years ago because it never should have been farmed in the first place. Anyway that's just how some people are. Just the same as some cattlemen don't fix fence and some don't take care of their musk thistle. You shouldn't dislike every farmer because of the other morons out there.

 

[George]

We watch cost very closely - - - our "new" combine is a 2005 JD 9550 that we paid $30,000 for and put an additional $20,000 in and have run for 2 seasons with no problems - - - the other one is a 1995 JD 9500 that we paid $18,000 for and put an additional $15,000 in and have run for about 7 years with only normal maintaince. I feel we do a great job of pre season work, check the machines from top to bottom in their off seasons ( right now we are going thru the planter )

We are medium sized farmers for this area farming 2,300 acres of row crop of which we own slightly less than half. We have no new equipment and most of the time we can sell our equipment for much more that what we pay for it as we look for distressed machines that are still sound and go thru them to put them back at the top of their worth.

As far as rent is concerned I was in the 1970s and saw high rents that dropped after Carter embargoed grain to the USSR - - - rent dropped to less than half and it took at least 20 years for them to come back. I hope to never see that again.

 

[LazyWP]

I don't want to see $4.00 corn nor do I want to see $8.00 corn. My gripe is like everyone else. There are 5 new pivots, just in this area, this year. Most of them are on ground that should never have been broke out. What I see coming is just like back in the early 80s, when we had such an over abundance of grain. The market collapsed, because everyone thought they had to farm fence row to fence row. The government came in with the CRP and bailed them all out. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. The American farmer has not learned how to self regulate themselves!!
That is the main reason I do not have my own place. To really make it work, no matter if its a ranch or farm, you have to be willing to sell your soul to the government, and I WON'T do it.

 

[Denny]

I don't want to see $4.00 corn nor do I want to see $8.00 corn. My gripe is like everyone else. There are 5 new pivots, just in this area, this year. Most of them are on ground that should never have been broke out. What I see coming is just like back in the early 80s, when we had such an over abundance of grain. The market collapsed, because everyone thought they had to farm fence row to fence row. The government came in with the CRP and bailed them all out. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. The American farmer has not learned how to self regulate themselves!!
That is the main reason I do not have my own place. To really make it work, no matter if its a ranch or farm, you have to be willing to sell your soul to the government, and I WON'T do it.

I'm making it work with no Govt handout's and no crop insurance. But I got me a Sugar Mamma.

 

[LazyWP]

I don't want to see $4.00 corn nor do I want to see $8.00 corn. My gripe is like everyone else. There are 5 new pivots, just in this area, this year. Most of them are on ground that should never have been broke out. What I see coming is just like back in the early 80s, when we had such an over abundance of grain. The market collapsed, because everyone thought they had to farm fence row to fence row. The government came in with the CRP and bailed them all out. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. The American farmer has not learned how to self regulate themselves!!
That is the main reason I do not have my own place. To really make it work, no matter if its a ranch or farm, you have to be willing to sell your soul to the government, and I WON'T do it.

I'm making it work with no Govt handout's and no crop insurance. But I got me a Sugar Mamma.

Gotta have sumpin... :lol:

 

[George]

What is the problem with crop insurance - - - It is deemed to be revenue neutral and I doubt anyone cries when we write a check for $116,000 for the premium several years in a row.

I sure was glad I had it last year - - - the first year I ever collected but when you consider I will have over $1,000,000 in seed, fert, herbicide, insecticide and diesel I feel a premium of about 10% more is worth my peace of mind.

Last year was the first we were able to put out the crop without borrowing money so for the first time we could have dropped the insurance but I remember 1983 and 1988 when the only insurance available was for hail and the 2 droughts within 5 years almost did me in so we took the insurance - - - we took it again this year and yes it was a big check to write but I sleep better for it.

Look at all we have invested - - - 2 combines, 2 articulated tractors, several other tractors, 3 semi tractors, 8 semi trailers, and way to many implements to count - - - insurance is a good feeling!

 

[Silver]

I can not figure the guys last year buying new combines ....... $400,000 for something that is used one month a year, and does the same exact job that my $30,000 combine does.....
it is easy to pay off a $400 K machine on $8 corn, but $4 corn makes things get real tight!

Good thing someone's buying $400k combines.... they are your future $30K machines!

 

[4Diamond]

and some don't take care of their musk thistle. You shouldn't dislike every farmer because of the other morons out there.

There are far worse things to worry about than a thistle. Have you heard of spotted knapweed?

 

[3 M L & C]

and some don't take care of their musk thistle. You shouldn't dislike every farmer because of the other morons out there.

There are far worse things to worry about than a thistle. Have you heard of spotted knapweed?

No I have not. I have seen musk thistles so thick that cows wouldn't walk through. Then you get as many seeds on your ground as the neighbor who grew them.

 

[Faster horses]

I don't want to see $4.00 corn nor do I want to see $8.00 corn. My gripe is like everyone else. There are 5 new pivots, just in this area, this year. Most of them are on ground that should never have been broke out. What I see coming is just like back in the early 80s, when we had such an over abundance of grain. The market collapsed, because everyone thought they had to farm fence row to fence row. The government came in with the CRP and bailed them all out. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. The American farmer has not learned how to self regulate themselves!!
That is the main reason I do not have my own place. To really make it work, no matter if its a ranch or farm, you have to be willing to sell your soul to the government, and I WON'T do it.

Did you know there is a government program through the NRCS that helps pay for those pivots? I know that for a fact, because some friends put another pivot on their place and the government helped a great deal.

I understand what you are getting at, but not everyone sells their soul to the government...that's painting with a very broad brush.