mn:
This is just my humble opinion, but I would guess the cattle market is at it's high or near it's high because heifer retention is starting to been seen, and that means the cow herd is growing in size nationwide. That means that we might be near the top of the price cycle, so in 5-7 years me might be a the bottom of the price cycle, and thus breakevens might be a little tighter, and I am guessing that producers will have more of a challenge in paying off our higher priced cows and heifers.
My thought would be to wait and try to "buy low and sell high." We have a neighbor where I was raised that always seems to be on the right end of buying low and selling high--he just made a pile of cash buying a band of ewes dirt cheap, getting 5 lamb crops out of them, selling them high, and then dispersing the flock at high prices. I noticed a couple of weeks ago that he just dispersed his cow herd too---that he bought in the wreck of the late 90's, for less than $500 per pair. I'd guess he'll run some yearlings for awhile and when the market is low, start this game all over again.
However, if you're wanting to build a great cowherd over time, his method of madness might not be the way to go. He always had a decent set of cows, but also thought he could get more too. Lots of ranchers, me included, are proud of the herd we've built over time, so it's harder for folks like us to disperse in good times and buy back in times of cheaper prices.
An added note to all of this, bankers seem to always like to lend $$$ when prices are high, and it's harder to get pennies out of them when prices are low---and interest rates will likely be going up too.
For whatever it's worth (and sometimes you get what you pay for!) I hope I've added something constructive to this discussion.
Although I'm a true blue optimist, I also am a realist and know that what goes up must come down, and we will have lower cattle prices in the future--maybe more near term than we would hope!
Cheers!!!
TTB
