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"Creating/Inflating EPD's"

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Amo

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OK, another bull buying question. I know there are ways to "inflate" EPD's. I think one way is to early wean & make a huge 205 adjustment.

I visited with a potential seed stock supplier. They have a good reputation. Yet you look through their catalog, all EPS's with actual bw and a projected sale day weight. Also no carcass data. In visiting with them he said that they feel the poorer bulls on actual preformance might get over looked becuase the weight might not so their true potential. As an EPD takes out the envirmental factors. Which I do agree with that comment. Yet its kinda like Obama refusing to show his birth certificate. Full disclosure, ya I believe he is a citizen. Hillary made dang sure of that. Why not show the actual information for better or worse? I politely pushed the issue a little. He made the comment that they don't creep, and weaning weights are usually in the 500 range. Which would somewhat make sense. Some of their WW makes me think the actual or 205 should be well over the 500ish# range. He was very general in the ww comment. So maybe the vast majority of them is say 575-595 IDK. You get the idea.

So just thinking to myself. Why not show the actual information unless they are minuplating the system to create EPD's? It could all be on the up & up. The catalog shows a picture of every bull and not much room left to show actual data. Thing is no supplement sheets or anything on sale day. Which most sales, you normally get some supplement sheets. They don't ultra sound until after the sale. So that explains that part, but he didn't really want to share much of the actual ww or yw either. So just kinda wondering if they are hidding something to help build EPD's or if its just a legitmate up and up deal with not enough room in the catalog?
 
I visited a breeder that I was interested in buying some bulls from. I wrote down the birth wt from his calving book of the bulls I liked. One bull of the half brother string was quite a bit heavier birth wt. Over the 100lbs while the others were in the 70 and 80"s. Funny thing when the bull sale catalog came out the heavy bull wasn't over the 100 anymore.
 
When I buy a bull I want the dams production record for birth, wean wt, yearling wt, imf, rea. This tells me where she ranks in that herd. It also tells me how old the cow is which is really important to me as I believe in selecting for longevity. Just looking at epds does not tell me any of that info. Epds can be oversold.
 
Honesty is pretty important. Some are more honest than others. This outfit has been in the business long enough & have a respectable reputation that Im not super concerned. Just kinda curious. Usually if a person asks, they tell you. When I asked, I wasn't talking about any specific bull in general. So I think he was talking about the weaning weights in general. IDK if I would of asked about lot 17 if he would of told me or not. Just the vibe I got was he wasn't too excited about sharing the information.

I do like ratios better than EPD's almost. Or at least it give you a point of reference to go on.

Here is a comment from another forum. If his weaning weights are in the 500-600 lb range and he says it, I don't think he's hiding anything on that part, it sure isn't a number to write home about.

I don't really see how weaning early and making a huge adjustment would affect it since the formula considers reduced growth as the animal gets older, so unless he's weaning at 3 months, I don't think so.

He seems to be the type that is catering to people who look at a bull and judge him by what they see.

I do see his point of view also.
 
The norm in the registurd business is to wean early feed pellets where they gain near or over 5#s a day than adjust the ww weight.

I heard a guy jokeing he ran recip cows for a bigger reg. outfit and he joked how he'd like a trailer like his because you could load it with 700# bulls drive a 100 miles and unload 900# bulls.
 
I guess what it boils down to Amo is wether the bull you buy with those high epds is going to sire calves with that genetic superiority. I have my doubts but I have been wrong before. The cattle I see with the very elite growth epds regardless of breed lack skeletal width. I am not recommending selecting for the lowest growth numbers possible but maybe middle of the road is better? We finish our own steers to harvest so we want growth but I don't always try to max yearling wt. epd because mature cow size is a factor also.
 
This has been real educational. I don't trust EPD's a whole lot myself and it's good to hear your opinions. I had a bit to eat just last week with a well respected former rancher who's now a widely read writer and he's not a big fan of them either. I'd have to say that WB's approach is pretty much up his alley. I used to supply feed to some of the most popular breeders (across most breeds) in southern Alberta and into Montana and I saw firsthand that... well, just leave it at fat sells. Doesn't matter if the feet won't hold up long term. That left me with a feeling that EPD's are more about marketing than anything else.
 
I have 3 comments. First; don't ever be afraid to ask lots of questions from the person you are buying bulls from. If you don't like the answers or you don't trust the person, then don't buy bulls from them. You decide where you spend your money.
Second; personally I don't put any faith in EPD's. We provide them for our customers along with any other information they want, but we don't even look at EPD's when selecting a herd sire. ( I have been told that our cattle have some of the best EPD's in the breed but I could not care less). I believe that as an industry we are starting to train the next generation of cattlemen to be very good at looking at numbers on a sheet of paper, and to be not as good at evaluating traits in live cattle that are economically important.
Third: Unfortunately C-J is right. A lot of purebred breeders have realized that fat sells. My suggestion is that bull buyers should ask specific questions as to how much feed and what type of feed that the breeders have fed their bulls. I do that when purchasing bulls from other people. I am amazed at how few times I am asked those questions from people thinking about purchasing bulls from me. I guess I'm just strange that way.
 
EPD's cannot be manipulated nor inflated. At least definitely not for very long. Think about what EPD's are; "Estimated Progeny Difference". They are only a comparative estimated difference in lbs. between the calves of a single cow bred to either Bull "A" or Bull "B".

Over the long haul EPD's work well. And it's all a rancher has to predict genetic potential until something better comes along. When looking at EPD's, check the "Accuracy" values. They tell more than the actual EPD numbers themselves.

EPD's are only another tool in the box that can be added to things like picking cows with good feet & legs, disposition/temperament, udder quality, amongst others.
 
We use EPD heavily in our selection process, but we are not always seeking the biggest numbers. We sort bulls worth looking at and then analyze type, structure, pedigree, etc. We are also starting to use genomics to get a head start on things like longevity and feed efficiency.
As long as the breeder is lying equally on all of his calves, the EPD are minimally impacted, as they are really assessing differences between cattle that are managed in the same group. I would say the EPD are less likely to be influenced by the breeder than relying on an actual or adjusted weight that is skirting the truth. I do agree that fat sells.
Our purebreds calve on grass with our commercial cows and we don't creep feed, and I have not figured out yet how to get a 900# calf off of a cow within a reasonable time frame.
 
"It is dishonest to suggest, or imply, that BLUP (EPD) analysis will allow accurate genetic comparisons of all economically important traits across all environments. A trait such as fertility is determined by hormonal balance (largely unaffected by environment) and body condition (largely a reflection of environmental adaptation). It is therefore subjected to genotype X environment interaction. Animals performing well in one environment may perform poorly in a different environment. This is reflected in fertility. No mathematical model can correct for this in order to allow animals be compared across environments with regard to traits that are subjected to genotype X environment interaction."
Johann Zietsman
From: Man - Cattle - Veld
 
Greybull lit a fire...
I agree and disagree with him at the same time. There are certainly cattle lines that are more fertile, however fertility has a much bigger environmental influence on its' expression than it does on many other traits of higher heritability. There are EPD for Heifer Pregnancy, Stayability (proxy for longevity), mature cow size, age at first calvings/days to calving, and calving ease. These are all indicators of information that may affect fertility both short and long term. As well, milk can be an indicator of fertility, with a large milk value in a tough environment resulting in reduced fertility.
It is somewhat in the art of how you use the EPD, what emphasis you put on it and what other tools you might have to assist the decision making process.
That said, because environment has such a large influence, your approach as a manager can greatly influence/override the results. For example, dairy cows get pregnant everyday, but they are not running in range conditions.
 
Well I probably didn't use the proper title to express my question. I know better. The adjusted weights are what gets tweeked easier. Just what I was curious about was how this producer was creating such a high WW EPD with stating that his ww (IDK if actual or adjusted, guess actual) was 5XX#. Im not a seed stock producer. Usually there is "an angle". So the main point of my question was if there was "an angle" to generate the EPD or if it was purely created off actual raw data. No way to tweek it.

I agree you need to look at phenotype as well as numbers. Its interesting to go to a sale some people purely look at the numbers. Some will walk through the pens, and maybe ask the wife to see what a certain number is. I think it is somewhat a generational thing. The Angus bull Tex X supposedly doesn't have much muscle, but makes awesome numbers. Yet you look at some of these bulls, Ill throw Pharo under the bus again....he has some super soggy, very attractive cows/calves/bulls. Yet in a feedlot enviroment might not be as optimum. As previously stated, I think middle of the road for what your looking at.

As far as "curve bender" comments. I agree there are extremes in both directions. Since Angus is probably the biggest breed in North America Ill use them. They pushed the curve so hard that they bit themselves in the butt. Some of their blood lines may have a lot of preformance, but need a lot to support that preformance. Yes Im looking at Hereford in this thread. I use across breed EPD chart. Im fimiliar with what Angus EPD's fit my enviroment. So using that information, plus kinda knowing where my herd fleshes yes Im looking for growth in certain areas. I want to ballence some things, but tweek others. To match up what I look for in an Angus EPD, yes Im looking at the upper end of Hereford EPD's.

Over several years of thinking & visiting with others Ive developed this assumption. For what ever reason the Hereford breed didn't really care about changing EPD's. What they bred for IDK. Maybe they thought they were perfect already? Or purely the show ring, IDK. Todays Hereford is bigger than the 50's Im sure. I was born in 1977. Yes Hereford EPD's are different than Angus. I personally feel that breed average for Hereford is too easy keeping for my enviroment. Mainly do to the MARC data. Im sure some will disagree with me on this. They feel cattle need to be "1950ish". I also think that there are cattle can have preformance and be efficient/fertile. A Chevy Impala gets better mileage and has more horse power than a Model T. I think Ill drive the Impala. ABS has been doing research on their bulls with feed efficiency. If your efficient at converting feed, that should point towards fleshing ability. Grey bull is also correct in that you have to match your enviromet. I have several harder keeping cows. They breed right up. I have several easier keeping ones that breed. Ive had some fat cows that dont breed up very well. As a general rule though, I think its pretty well assumed that fleshing ability and fertility go hand in hand....with some exceptions. IMHO, Im afraid that so many people went for preformance and went to far. Now they are following the crowd the other direction and strictly only looking maternal. I have a friend that buys some of the best maternally orienated Angus bulls around. He doesn't care about the steers. Just is concerned about having good mama cows. He thinks that if you take care of the maternal end, the rest will take care of itself. I see his point & wouldn't argue against it. Guess Id rather try to stay in the middle, and streach both directions as far as I can to match my enviroment.

It would be awesome if all breeds had a fertility EPD. I feel frame size, and or fleshing ability generally indicates fertility. There are always the exceptions. I guess I feel I need to try and find the exceptions. As far as I know, Simmetal and Red Angus are the only ones that have a fertility/stayability EPD? The thing Ive wondered about that, which is kinda what Grey Bull is indicating how much enviromental/management factors can fluxuate an EPD like that? Ya, common sense would kinda tell ya a cow that works in Missouri might not work in New Mexico. I know nothing about the stayability EPD. I don't use Simmetal or Red Angus. I would imagine a big enough of a sample should cancel out the management part. Yet you still have to match your enviroment. Guess thats why you need to use all the numbers not just one or two of them.
 
Amo, I will try to explain epds this way: Two bull calves in the same contemporary group have identical epds for birth, growth and whatever. Say bull A had birth weight ration of 90 wean ration 110 and yearling ration 108 , bull B had birth ration 104 wean ratio 98 and yearling ratio 98.

When those numbers are turned into association bull A will have his birth weight epd lowered, weaning and yearling epd will rise. Just the opposite scenario will happen with bull B. The ratios are the directors on epds. Actual weights mean nothing when the numbers are figured. Remember the epds are a LOW accuracy predicter what the the bull will sire. Once progeny are turned in on an older bull accuracy numbers will rise and give a lot better idea of progeny performance.

This is just my opinion but use actual data, visual appraisal then the epds when you select bulls. Far better chance that you will like your purchase after you get him home. One more thing don't even listen to what the auctioneer says when interested bull comes in the ring as he represents the seller not the buyer. Just too easy to get overhyped.
 
I understand the general principal of how they are calculated, but thanks for reaffirming wb.

Ya auctioneer or his side kick. I hate Tm Burke with a passion! I don't mind someone introducing each lot as they walk in. Good old Tom though does that and then some. Guess I was told it was rude to talk while someone else is talking. That dumb idiot will try to yell over the auctioneer & say this bulls half brother broughtn so & so or wat ever. Ive studied the cattalog & looked in the pen. Does he really think his used car sales pitch is going to make me bid?!!! One sale he did it so much I emailed him when I got home. I told him half the time I was wanting to bid & couldn't hear the price because of him making noise. It maybe was the plan, maybe not...idk. He apologized & isn't as bad at that sale at least. If I see them managing a sale, I seriously consider not going!
 
Weaning early will affect adjusted 205 day weight, but it won't affect EPD's. EPD's are built a parental averages first and then it takes the ratios of each category into affect. Example. If the adjusted 205 is 700 lbs and average 205 day weight is 650 lbs. The 700 lbs calf will ratio higher for weaning and this will change an EPD. It works the same if it is under average. We list actual BW in the catalog, but adjusted weaning weight. As some calve are 210 days old at weaning, while the other one is 180 days old. That's 30 days or about 75 lbs. If we adjust everything to the same age, it puts all the bulls on the same playing field, and makes it easier to use. Also, if a breeder would creep feed and make the bulls 250 lbs heavier at weaning, this would not change an EPD either as long as all the bulls were fed creep feed, as they would ratio from the same contemporary group.

I suppose EPD's could me manipulated, but the only way I can think of is by sorting cattle by computer into smaller contemporaries. But that would take ALOT of time. It would also hurt the other half of the bulls in the contemporary, so I really don't see the benefit. We wean and send in large groups. The association will sort down by age of dam, and a few other things, but we don't. I do not like to use the adjusted birth weight,(it is adjusted when he came out) but the association does that too, but they do also list the actual as well, and that is what we use.
 
I think some breeders, BUT NOT ALL,tend to malnipulate to what they want,i had an experience with one,i went to the sale and in the catalog they had him listed as a bw epd of 2.5 was high end of what I wanted,so after bidding on a number of bulls I got this one,took the bull home and when I received his papers in the mail he was listed as 3.5 bw,so I called the breeder and he said at the time the catalog was printed they didn't have all the data so they put him what they thought he was and unless he was hurt or non breeder he was mine,i shoulda quessed some was up on the other bulls I bid on,i was last bidder on all 3 and they all was no saled,so I think I was being run up on them ,so I put the bull in a small pasture with my biggest cows and I got to do c sections on 3 of them plus hard pulls on a few,so it weaned me from any bull sales,i breed my own now and or go to private sales,least I know I wont get run up on them
 
If the adjusted 205 is 700 lbs and average 205 day weight is 650 lbs. The 700 lbs calf will ratio higher for weaning and this will change an EPD. It works the same if it is under average.

OK, I understand that the parental data is used in calculating EPS. Im not bashing adjusted weights. I think its very important to judge everything on a level playing field. Just I have heard coffee shop talk about how do they create such numbers.....Kelly Schaff for example. Coffee talk is coffee talk. Science is science. I was just curious if there was a way to "create numbers". BRG, thank you for your post! I learned this stuff in college. Thats been several moons ago.

If you early wean to make a big 205 adjust, you inflate your ratio as well. I didn't realize ratios were used to formulate the EPD. The over rated ratio would bump it some, but the parental data would delute it somewhat. I do like EPD's. I almost like ratios more. Just like you said, it keeps the herd the same. If calf 409 is a pig at the creep feeder/has better quality pasture etc, but 007 don't the info from the parents would kinda "correct" the enviromental factors. A big adjustment would make a bigger ratio. Thus when it is calculated into the EPD, it isn't maybe turely accurate, but the paternal data brings it back to reality????
 

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