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FEEDER CALF PRICES

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Denny

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so SH how much do you think the prices of feeder calves will be now seems the EXPERTS are forcasting HUGE drops in feeder calf prices,why? Amazing thing is now a packing plant in Canada is haveing Labor problems so they are going to truck them south to be slaughtered oh but wait I thought there were no trucks to bring them south.Seems to me all that you have stated as not going to happen is going to happen.You better put new Batteries in your crystal ball.
 

alabama

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Here we go with the market flooded and now our calves won't be worth hauling off and the the packers will get the beef for nothing but the price in the store will stay the same.
 

Denny

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Alabama said:
Here we go with the market flooded and now our calves won't be worth hauling off and the the packers will get the beef for nothing but the price in the store will stay the same.

Sure it will but then they will blame it on HIGH energy and labor cost.


But dont worry ~SH~ SAYS THE PACKERS ARE ONLY MAKING $6.00 PER HEAD HE'S SO FULL OF IT....
 

alabama

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Do you know where I can buy some politions and where I can get some money to pay them?
 

Denny

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Alabama said:
Do you know where I can buy some politions and where I can get some money to pay them?

Give the NCBA or The AMI a call but they may have them all bought up...your checkoff dollars at work..
 

Cattleman

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Alabama wrote:
Here we go with the market flooded and now our calves won't be worth hauling off and the the packers will get the beef for nothing but the price in the store will stay the same.

Flooded, that is hilarious....flooded with what? The water from Manitoba?
Our feedlots are current, and our packers are bigger, hardly any animals left to go, and the animals that go will mostly just displace the boxes you were taking anyway!!!!
 

alabama

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Check off is forcing us to pay for politions that vote to hept the packers. Lets change the check off such that the packer payes every time he cuts a head off.
 

Mike

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Alabama said:
Check off is forcing us to pay for politions that vote to hept the packers. Lets change the check off such that the packer payes every time he cuts a head off.

It would still come out of our check. We are the price takers.
 
A

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Denny: "But dont worry ~SH~ SAYS THE PACKERS ARE ONLY MAKING $6.00 PER HEAD HE'S SO FULL OF IT...."

Denny, anyone can do a search of "$6.00 per head" and see that you are making that up. I'll cut you some slack and not use the "L" word.

I haven't checked the packer profit margins lately. If you want to know what they are, perhaps you can ask Agman for an update. He tracks this periodically.

Through the nineties, the average per head profit for the 5 major packers amounted to $3.88 per head. That profit data is available through GIPSA.

In Pickett vs. ibp, ibp's profits for the period of "ALLEGED" market manipulation was $26 per head.

Now if you want to offer any facts to the contrary, be my guest. Otherwise you can piss and moan about R-CULT's inability to keep the border closed by lying about the safety of Canadian beef.

A LIE THAT WE COULD HAVE FELT THE REPRECUSSIONS FROM HAD THE MEDIA DECIDED TO BELIEVE R-CULT NOW THAT WE HAVE BSE IN OUR NATIVE HERD.

If you want to debate my quotes, you bring my quotes. Quit making sh*t up.

If you want to debate my predictions on the Canadian border's affect on live cattle prices, you bring my quotes.

Let me help you. As a rule of thumb, every 1% increase in supply affects live cattle prices 1.5% negatively. To measure it, you better be able to sort out all the factors that play on live cattle prices, not just the Canadian border.

Here's something to chew on, why did fact cattle prices fall from $116 to $82 WHILE THE BORDER WAS STILL CLOSED if that is the driving force behind our markets?

Explain that! You can't because that would require acknowledging the facts.

You won't committ to a prediction yourself because you will find more comfort in critiquing someone else's prediction.



~SH~
 

rancher

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Denny, anyone can do a search of "$6.00 per head" and see that you are making that up. I'll cut you some slack and not use the "L" word.

I haven't checked the packer profit margins lately. If you want to know what they are, perhaps you can ask Agman for an update. He tracks this periodically.

Through the nineties, the average per head profit for the 5 major packers amounted to $3.88 per head. That profit data is available through GIPSA.
Was this before the big CO took all their millions in benefits or after?
 

CattleCo

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Gee, I cannot believe so many folks are worried about what the packers are making? I would be more concerned on what the packers are PAYING for my cattle! If you do not like the price .......find a tree and skin the critters yourself! Cattle Feeders buy-em "as cheap as they can", Cow/Calf Producers buy replacement "as cheap as they can", you go into a truck dealership and pay sticker price???? :roll: IT IS CALLED THE MARKET! Buyers and Sellers come to terms on a deal.....THAT IS THE MARKET! Deal with it!
 

agman

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CattleCo said:
Gee, I cannot believe so many folks are worried about what the packers are making? I would be more concerned on what the packers are PAYING for my cattle! If you do not like the price .......find a tree and skin the critters yourself! Cattle Feeders buy-em "as cheap as they can", Cow/Calf Producers buy replacement "as cheap as they can", you go into a truck dealership and pay sticker price???? :roll: IT IS CALLED THE MARKET! Buyers and Sellers come to terms on a deal.....THAT IS THE MARKET! Deal with it!

Great comments CC. I will just add two more points. If people spent as much time managing their own business as they do complaining about packer margins, something they know little if anything about, they would all be better off as managers. Paying more attention to the next guy than your own business is a sure way to go broke.
 
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CattleCo,

Exactly!

These packer blamers are always bitching about the packers yet most of them don't even sell to the packers. They sell to the feeders.



~SH~
 

Denny

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~SH~ said:
CattleCo,

Exactly!

These packer blamers are always bitching about the packers yet most of them don't even sell to the packers. They sell to the feeders.



~SH~

I was'nt BLAMEING PACKERS you have stated in the past that when the border opens it would not effect feeder prices very much I was wondering how much not much is???5 cents 25 cents more, less, being canadian imports wont affect us much why do the markets tell a different tale.Truth is your full of **** period.All mouth and no brains....As far as canadian beef being safe I am sure it is this is'nt about food safety its about money always has been always will be...I want to keep all canadian beef out just for the almighty dollar.
 

Shelly

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Denny said:
~SH~ said:
CattleCo,

Exactly!

These packer blamers are always bitching about the packers yet most of them don't even sell to the packers. They sell to the feeders.



~SH~

I was'nt BLAMEING PACKERS you have stated in the past that when the border opens it would not effect feeder prices very much I was wondering how much not much is???5 cents 25 cents more, less, being canadian imports wont affect us much why do the markets tell a different tale.Truth is your full of s*** period.All mouth and no brains....As far as canadian beef being safe I am sure it is this is'nt about food safety its about money always has been always will be...I want to keep all canadian beef out just for the almighty dollar.


Well, at least your honest! No beatin' around the bush for you! :wink:
 

agman

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Denny said:
~SH~ said:
CattleCo,

Exactly!

These packer blamers are always bitching about the packers yet most of them don't even sell to the packers. They sell to the feeders.



~SH~

I was'nt BLAMEING PACKERS you have stated in the past that when the border opens it would not effect feeder prices very much I was wondering how much not much is???5 cents 25 cents more, less, being canadian imports wont affect us much why do the markets tell a different tale.Truth is your full of s*** period.All mouth and no brains....As far as canadian beef being safe I am sure it is this is'nt about food safety its about money always has been always will be...I want to keep all canadian beef out just for the almighty dollar.

Denny, no flame intended I just wast you to consider these facts. The domestic supply of feeders is up approximately 618,000 head from year ago levels. On an annual basis that increase only would cause feeders to delcine by $4.00/cwt and calves by approximately $6.50/cwt. That is the supply picture without any imports from Canada. Historically, we have imported approximately 4,000 head of feeders and calves per week from Canada.

Fed cattle breakevens on fed cattle being markered now are in a range from $85-$95/cwt., mostly at $90-$93. These breakevens will increase this fall. Fed cattle in the U.S. last week sold at $80. Losses are developing from $50-$150 per head on fed cattle. Cattle feeders will not support the current feeder and calf market with those types of losses developing.

Quarterly beef production is set to increase after being down in eight of the past ten quarters. Beef production last year was down 1.65 billion poounds, the second largest annual decline on record. Beef demand has peaked and is trending lower. I hope this helps you to better understand the many factors that are and will influence the price of feeders and calves in the months to come.
 
A

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Denny: "....you have stated in the past that when the border opens it would not effect feeder prices very much I was wondering how much not much is???5 cents 25 cents more, less, being canadian imports wont affect us much why do the markets tell a different tale."

I already answered that question. You dense or something?

A 1% increase in supply creates about a 1.5% decrease in price. I have never stated anything different.

Canadian live cattle constitute about 5% of our annual beef production. DO THE MATH.

What you can't seem to understand is that had we not opened the Canadian border, Canada would have eventually assumed that same portion of our export markets. Canadian beef was not going to disappear from the world market. I realize this requires broader thinking than you are accustomed to.


Denny: "Truth is your full of s*** period.All mouth and no brains...."

Yeh well talk is cheap, import blamer!

When you think you can contradict anything I have stated with opposing facts, step up to the plate and show us what else you don't know.


Denny: "As far as canadian beef being safe I am sure it is this is'nt about food safety its about money always has been always will be...I want to keep all canadian beef out just for the almighty dollar."

Then why use BSE "fear mongering" to accomplish your goals. Why not just oppose the importation of Canadian beef and live cattle and fight the consumer's vote?


~SH~
 

Denny

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What you can't seem to understand is that had we not opened the Canadian border, Canada would have eventually assumed that same portion of our export markets. Canadian beef was not going to disappear from the world market. I realize this requires broader thinking than you are accustomed to.


Well they might as well assume the export markets we won't give the customer what they want so someone else will, might as well be the canadians.
 

rancher

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RobertMac said:
rancher said:
Was this before the big CO took all their millions in benefits or after?

Paying the big CO is a business expense...after. :eek: :wink:

Could these two just be the tip of the iceberg on packer profits?

ConAgra CEO $1.2m, no bonus
DJ ConAgra Foods CEO FY05 Pay $1.2M; Gets No Bonus,Stk Awards
July 19, 2005

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG) Chairman and Chief Executive Bruce C. Rohde received $1.2 million in compensation for fiscal 2005, a steep reduction from a year earlier, when he was paid $10.8 million.
In its annual proxy statement filed Tuesday, the packaged foods company also asked shareholders to approve a management proposal to declassify the board so all directors stand for election annually.
Shareholders can vote on the proposal at the company's annual meeting Sept. 22 in Omaha, Neb. If approved, ConAgra said it will phase out the current structure in which directors are elected for three-year staggered terms.
The proxy filing made with the Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed the compensation for Rohde reflected a $1.2 million salary, unchanged from a year earlier. Unlike the year earlier, Rohde received no bonus or equity awards for fiscal 2005, ended May 29.
For fiscal 2004, he received a $3.6 million bonus and $5.9 million in awards under the company's long-term incentive program.




JUL. 19, 2005 Tyson Foods Inc., the world's largest meat company, on Tuesday said third-quarter earnings will be hit by $43 million in charges linked to a legal settlement and a plan to streamline its poultry operations.

The company agreed to pay $42.5 million to settle a 2002 lawsuit regarding its live swine operations. The litigation -- which claimed Tyson improperly failed to renew contracts with contractors -- will cause a charge of $33 million, or 6 cents per share, during the quarter.
 

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