Flood of Cdn Cattle???

[SMS]

It seems to me that the biggest concern of the US rancher is that on March 8, 2005 some 900,000 head of cattle will roll across the 49th parallel. This concern is founded in 1/2 truths and mis conception's.
1. There isnt enough trucks to move that many south in a big rush.
2. When the US packers were buying cattle to ship to US plants live last was pre May 20, 2002. The exchange rate at that time was $0.62, it is now $0.80 and rising. This makes shipping live cattle more expensive.
3. Packing capacity in Canada has increased by 22% and growing.
4. Feedlots are current.
5. The Alberta set aside program, which was to delay marketing of the 2004 calf crop was under subcribed. This means that those cattle have all ready been marketed and are in the feedlots, not hiding on the ranchs waiting for the border to open.
6. There is an expanding export market for Canadian beef besides the US, which need to be filled. This will require that Cdn based packers out bid any US buyers to keep the live fats here for processing.


Therefore, come along on March 8, 2005 the only price change in the market will be caused by doom sayers creating uncertianny in the market place. It will settle back, once the sky doesnt fall, and by March 15, 2005 the price will increase. These are my predictions. I would like to hear any other intelligent senerio's and predictions.

 

[Tam]

I agree and I wish some of these US ranchers could understand it but until it is past history and proven to them they would rather believe that the sky is going to fall I better they also bought extra supplies and water on Dec 30, 1999 too. :x

 

[Manitoba_Rancher]

I foreone feel that there will not be a big flood of cattle because we have our own markets for fat cattle in Canada and the packers will have to outbid packers in the US. The only thing we will see is the price increasing for feeder cattle and fat cattle in Canada because of a little more competition on the market! this can only be a good thing!

 

[sw]

I have a cartoon here on the wall, can't make the scanner work so I can't post it. It reads "Reality Check. there is a picture of a little car, under the car it says this killed 42,643 Americans in 2003. then there is a picture of a cow with BSE painted on her side, under it it says, this has killed 0."
Can we all say "Chicken Little"?

 

[Anonymous]

under the car it says this killed 42,643 Americans in 2003. then there is a picture of a cow with BSE painted on her side, under it it says, this has killed 0."

Yet. Remember BSE has a 20 year incubation period. :?

 

[sw]

Got it. My point is the media has lead the consumers to believe that the sky is falling, such as my mother in law calling up all upset because she was getting a beef from us and now it is not safe to eat beef? This is rediculous. I also feel that there are two many unknowns concerning BSE, vCJD and all of these diseases. That means two things to me: 1) we should proceed with caution, 2) we should respond to science, not emotions, as everybody fears the unknown. We need to stay focused and not let things get out of hand, such as the brucellosis in Yellowstone. If the media would have first presented the facts about brucella, i.e. that in humans it is Undulant Fever and is INCURABLE, and that is the reason behind pasturized milk, ranchers spending their own money to control it so they have a safe product for the consumers, rather than presenting it as more rancher control of the poor buffalo, we would of had consumers on our side from the beginning, rather than the environmentalist.

 

[Anonymous]

To use AIDS , BSE, CJD, vCJD even in the same context is RIDICULOUS.
And NO IT IS NOT CORRECT BSE does not have a 20 year incubation period.

 

[Manitoba_Rancher]

I love to eat beef, Id eat it for every meal if I could, but ID like ot think its safe!

 

[agman]

The front-end fed cattle supply in Canada is extremely tight. If demand was on the same plane as U.S. demand was in 2003 the Canadians would experience a "bull" market similar to that which occurred during the summer/fall period of 2003 in the U.S. Unfortunately beef demand is not at the same level as that which prevailed during 2003.

As prices increase in Canada the economics of killing cows versus fed cattle will shift to cows in all plants that can kill cows. Fed cattle will flow into the U.S. for economic reasons. However, that movement should not exceed weekly pre BSE levels approximating 10,000-12,000 head per week. Trucking may initially provide a problem but that will result in good business for Kenworth and Peterbilt dealers.

Feeder and calf imports will likely be less than most are estimating. I would expect 200,000-400,000 head. For U.S. produces it is worth noting that a reduction in imports from Mexico as they begin to expand their herds could offset at lest one-half of the expected feeder and calf imports from Canada.

 

[frenchie]

under the car it says this killed 42,643 Americans in 2003. then there is a picture of a cow with BSE painted on her side, under it it says, this has killed 0."

Yet. Remember BSE has a 20 year incubation period. :?

And they can confirm that

 

[Les]

In 20 years cars will have killed 852,860 people .A lot more I would think even if the human form of bse has a 20 year incubation period.

 

[Anonymous]

under the car it says this killed 42,643 Americans in 2003. then there is a picture of a cow with BSE painted on her side, under it it says, this has killed 0."

Yet. Remember BSE has a 20 year incubation period. :?

And they can confirm that

Of course they can't and as each year goes by in the UK, both the number of deaths caused by vCJD in people and BSE in cattle are declining.

 

[Cal]

under the car it says this killed 42,643 Americans in 2003. then there is a picture of a cow with BSE painted on her side, under it it says, this has killed 0."

Yet. Remember BSE has a 20 year incubation period. :?

But unless you had a heaping helping of banned SRM, like diseased brain, or a big old slab of BSE positive spinal cord, you've got nothing to worry about. You're odds of suffocating while laying in bed are greater.

 

[Anonymous]

In 20 years cars will have killed 852,860 people .A lot more I would think even if the human form of bse has a 20 year incubation period.

In 20 years at least 20,000 people will have died from CJD in the U.S. alone and more if it gets amplified because we don't take precautions. I am NOT talking about BSE or vCJD or even scrapie or CWD jumping species, just the regular TSE that kills humans in 6 months flat which no one has yet explained the source of. CWD is on the rise in the West. BSE numbers are still significant in Europe (France, Ireland, and UK and probably in Portugal, Spain, and Eastern Europe as well).

Go back and read my post on why public health officials and scientists are concerned about this family of disease -- not to mention that they still haven't got a clue about how to prevent, treat, or cure them and they are always fatal. Not like SARS where they were working on a vaccine as the first cases were found.

That is because SARS is a very contagious virus. If we could just snap our fingers and make a vaccine for any disease there would no more cancer either.

 

[Tam]

As far as we know cancer and Alzheimer's are not infectious and don't jump species. And cancer is treatable and curable. Let's keep the discussion to infectious diseases.

Cancer took my dad and it was exactly three week from when the Docter told me what it was and I sat on his bed side and told him, to when I sat on that same bedside held his hand and watch him as he passed away. So don't think that all cancer is treatable or CURABLE. There are thousands that die of cancer every year that would sure hope your right but they die anyway.

 

[Anonymous]

As far as we know cancer and Alzheimer's are not infectious and don't jump species. And cancer is treatable and curable. Let's keep the discussion to infectious diseases.

Cancer took my dad and it was exactly three week from when the Docter told me what it was and I sat on his bed side and told him, to when I sat on that same bedside held his hand and watch him as he passed away. So don't think that all cancer is treatable or CURABLE. There are thousands that die of cancer every year that would sure hope your right but they die anyway.

Tam - I'm sorry about your dad. Cancer and Alzheimer's are terrible diseases and it is only recently that we have been able to treat and to save some of the victims. Having just watched my 52-year old husband die terribly over a 12 month period I am so sorry I implied anything about cancer that caused you pain. I feel passionately about diseases and public health now, having seen someone die young unnecessarily.

 

[Murgen]

Cancer is a serious desease and we have many theories of it's cause. From coffee to smoking! The interesting thing is that TSE's are mostly looked at from a transmission point of view. What's the Cause, that hasn't been proven yet. Even more interesting is that "science" is able to pin the blame on infected beef that may have been a factor in 150 deaths when the sporatic CJD is responsible for 350-400 US deaths per year. ( the same rate as the UK) 1 in a million, while a town in Slovakia has 1 in 1000 cases, interesting!

 

[Anonymous]

Cancer is a serious desease and we have many theories of it's cause. From coffee to smoking! The interesting thing is that TSE's are mostly looked at from a transmission point of view. What's the Cause, that hasn't been proven yet. Even more interesting is that "science" is able to pin the blame on infected beef that may have been a factor in 150 deaths when the sporatic CJD is responsible for 350-400 US deaths per year. ( the same rate as the UK) 1 in a million, while a town in Slovakia has 1 in 1000 cases, interesting!

Murgen - you are getting very well educated on TSEs. I didn't know about Slovakia. I know that Switzerland "sporadic" cases are on the rise and that is a cause for concern. You are correct. There are AT LEAST 300 - 400 deaths annually (1 in 9000 deaths) from CJD in the U.S. The figure 1 in a million is misleading and upsets all of us who once they know about 1 U.S. case of CJD keep running across other cases. It is more common than neurologists believe, that's for sure. It is significantly underreported and underdiagnosed, so there are perhaps 2 - 3 times as many deaths as the CDC estimates. They count on death certificates which is notoriously unreliable (not listed as cause of death or never diagnosed). You are correct. What causes TSEs? Scrapie? The first case of Kuru? CJD? CWD? Okay, misfolded prions -- well that's the theory -- but how do they get misfolded. I would bet you $50 that many of the "sporadic" cases were infected via surgery or blood products or ??? many years ago. Witness my husband (25 years) one of the few obvious iatrogenic cases (and still not demonstrably iatrogenic). What about Alzheimer's? What causes it? At least it is not infectious.

 

[Murgen]

Reader, you're right I am becoming more educated on TSE's and the more I learn, the more I learn to keep an open mind, because it hasn't been solved yet. Most of my comments on here and other discussions groups are to get people thinking. a lot think they know the causes and can definitely say "keep those contaminated Can. Cattle out" but they don't bite their tongue when it's needed and stop themselves from saying something that will harm the whole industry when it is proven that it is totally independant of the cattle industry.

I wish more people would think before they publish theories etc, and then blame open minded canadians for invading "their" free speech through this website.

Science used to say the world was flat!

 

[TheInsider]

I fall on the side of perception causes the discounts, and reality will move prices higher.. it takes time.

Also the futures being an indicator makes it tough because of the heavy dominance of technical traders following prices only.

With expectations of lower prices retail will probably be very clean, and they will later be chasing the train out of the station.. but of course I am only guessing like everyone else.