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Texan

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CHICAGO, Jul 22, 2011 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --

TOP STORIES

US Cattle Placed In Feedlots Rise In June From Year Ago

The number of young cattle added to feedlots in June was 4.1% higher compared to last year as drought-stricken producers sold animals to feedlots earlier than expected. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its semiannual cattle-inventory and monthly cattle-on-feed reports Friday, after trading closed. Feedlots added 1.7 million young animals, which are known as feeders, during June. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected the USDA to show feedlots made 1.58 million placements, or 7.6% less than in June of last year.


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/DJ_LIVESTOCK_HIGHLIGHTS__Top_Stories_Of_The_Day_161992043.html


Actual placement were up 4.1% when analysts had expected them to be down 7.6%? That means that June placements were more than 11% higher than expected. I would expect that we're in for a rough ride when the boards open up Monday.

Probably already seeing it in the Saturday sales today - I'll find out for sure sometime after midnight. Did anybody else make a sale today?
 

Mike

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There's been a trainwreck in the making for a while.

Those folks selling September/October calves may take a beating.
 
A

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While the report was bearish in ways (and thats what the futures folks will look at)- I heard some of the prognosticators saying that the early placements didn't mean that much since much of the heavy early sell off was because of early weaning/sell off with the southern droughts- and also said the report remains somewhat bullish because of the total number of cattle being the lowest in 37 years... That and a still stong beef demand... They also commented that there were indications in several parts of the country that the good cattle/cull prices would mean a lot less heifers would be heading to the feedlots with the retention of heifers for replacements/herd building...

Smallest Cattle Herd Since July 1, 1973

On Feed Comments:

The July 1 Cattle on Feed report looks bearish with June placements turning out to be considerably larger than the trade was anticipating. It would appear that dry pasture conditions forced stockers off grass earlier than expected. Specifically Texas placement in June totaled 6% above a year ago. Positively, the marketing total was also larger than expected, working to keep the lid on the total on feed population. Nevertheless, traders will focus on the bearish placement number. Look for October and December live cattle futures to open .50 to $1 lower when trade resumes on Monday.

Cattle Inventory Comments:

The mid-year herd inventory report turned out to be close to expectations with herd liquidation continuing. Specifically, the July 1 total population of 100 million head represents the smallest head count since July 1 of 1973.

http://www.northernag.net/AGNews/tabid/171/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4351/Smallest-Cattle-Herd-Since-July-1-1973.aspx

Another interesting article on the same take:

Ever Seen a 5-Mile Line at the Stockyards?
general admin posted on July 20, 2011 09:50 :: 340 Views


With a decision of buying expensive hay or selling some cattle, many producers in Oklahoma are heading to town with their stock trailers. There has been talk of a reported “five-mile line” of trucks and trailers recently waiting to unload at the Elk City Livestock Auction. While five miles could be a bit of a stretch, this photo, taken by Dayva Spitzer of the Sayre Record & Beckham County Democrat shows the reality of the situation.



Emma Misener, who is the custom harvester that’s been giving us weekly updates this year, is from Elk City herself.

She told us more about the dire drought situation in Oklahoma.

According to an article from News OK, Oklahoma cow and bull sales have increased by 15% from last year. They report that co-owner of the Elk City Livestock Auction, Charles Hickey, says that calves are also being sold younger this year and that the extreme volume of sales could very likely amp up the price of replacement cattle when the drought is over.




© Northern Ag Network 2011
Haylie Shipp

article and picture:
http://www.northernag.net/AGNews/tabid/171/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4312/Ever-Seen-a-5-Mile-Line-at-the-Stockyards.aspx
 

Texan

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Oldtimer said:
While the report was bearish in ways (and thats what the futures folks will look at)- I heard some of the prognosticators saying that the early placements didn't mean that much since much of the heavy early sell off was because of early weaning/sell off with the southern droughts- and also said the report remains somewhat bullish because of the total number of cattle being the lowest in 37 years... That and a still stong beef demand... They also commented that there were indications in several parts of the country that the good cattle/cull prices would mean a lot less heifers would be heading to the feedlots with the retention of heifers for replacements/herd building...
We've been selling cattle early in Texas for a LONG time. That's one of the reasons I found it so surprising that the smart(?) guys were predicting lower placements. I started in April selling cattle that should have gone until August. I sold some more in May, some more in June, and some more in July. A lot of good heifers here have been going to the feedlot because nobody has enough grass and the heifers are simply worth too much as feeders.

We're basically having our fall runs now. There probably won't be many calves left to sell by October. And many of the buyers are saying that it'll be over with by the first of September. Consequently, people who winter calves are having to try to get them bought early. I'm trying to put together a few little bitty ones just in case there's not any later. But it's hard to get very enthused about it when I don't have anything for them to eat that doesn't come from a truck.

And with another month like it's been around here all summer, I won't even have enough water for them. I don't mind pouring out feed for a little calf long enough to get him through until grass, but when you have to start hauling water, it makes you question how much you really want the damn things.

I told the guy that buys me some calves on Saturdays that I just really didn't even want anything - but if he could buy them $20 back from last week I'd take a few more. He never called me, so I guess that didn't buy any. And I'm really glad of it. When you look at everything put together - the heavy placements in June and what that might do to the futures next week, the idiots in Washington and the potential for a wreck in the stock market over the next few weeks, the seven day forecast that calls for temps over 100 every day, the 'grass' that just crunches when you walk on it, the water holes that are drying up and will be nothing but mud in another coupla weeks - why would anybody want any cattle?
 

redrobin

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Texan said:
Oldtimer said:
While the report was bearish in ways (and thats what the futures folks will look at)- I heard some of the prognosticators saying that the early placements didn't mean that much since much of the heavy early sell off was because of early weaning/sell off with the southern droughts- and also said the report remains somewhat bullish because of the total number of cattle being the lowest in 37 years... That and a still stong beef demand... They also commented that there were indications in several parts of the country that the good cattle/cull prices would mean a lot less heifers would be heading to the feedlots with the retention of heifers for replacements/herd building...
We've been selling cattle early in Texas for a LONG time. That's one of the reasons I found it so surprising that the smart(?) guys were predicting lower placements. I started in April selling cattle that should have gone until August. I sold some more in May, some more in June, and some more in July. A lot of good heifers here have been going to the feedlot because nobody has enough grass and the heifers are simply worth too much as feeders.

We're basically having our fall runs now. There probably won't be many calves left to sell by October. And many of the buyers are saying that it'll be over with by the first of September. Consequently, people who winter calves are having to try to get them bought early. I'm trying to put together a few little bitty ones just in case there's not any later. But it's hard to get very enthused about it when I don't have anything for them to eat that doesn't come from a truck.

And with another month like it's been around here all summer, I won't even have enough water for them. I don't mind pouring out feed for a little calf long enough to get him through until grass, but when you have to start hauling water, it makes you question how much you really want the damn things.

I told the guy that buys me some calves on Saturdays that I just really didn't even want anything - but if he could buy them $20 back from last week I'd take a few more. He never called me, so I guess that didn't buy any. And I'm really glad of it. When you look at everything put together - the heavy placements in June and what that might do to the futures next week, the idiots in Washington and the potential for a wreck in the stock market over the next few weeks, the seven day forecast that calls for temps over 100 every day, the 'grass' that just crunches when you walk on it, the water holes that are drying up and will be nothing but mud in another coupla weeks - why would anybody want any cattle?
If I were you I'd go ahead and sell both calves and expand that poodle business you've been working on. Seems it makes you happier. :lol:
 

allen57

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Just market tactics to shake out the weak hands.....does anyone actually believe those reports....or the weather forcast?
 

Silver

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allen57 said:
Just market tactics to shake out the weak hands.....does anyone actually believe those reports....or the weather forcast?

Worst part is often times these bearish market forecasts tend to be self fulfilling prophecies. The often start popping up about this time of year. :?
 

Bullhauler

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The placements number has always been a joke. It doesn't matter if my calves are being fed at home or sold into a feedlot they are still gaining weight. They just don't get counted until I sell them.
 

redrobin

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1.6 million head were placed in June with almost 500,000 of them weighing less than 600lbs. I see a big hole in the market down the road.
 

Texan

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redrobin said:
If I were you I'd go ahead and sell both calves and expand that poodle business you've been working on. Seems it makes you happier. :lol:
I find it somewhat surprising that a right-wing religious fanatic such as yourself had nothing better to do on a Sunday morning than to make smart-aleck remarks on the internet. You must have been experiencing some girlish giddy euphoria from just finishing up with your milking?
 

Texan

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redrobin said:
1.6 million head were placed in June with almost 500,000 of them weighing less than 600lbs. I see a big hole in the market down the road.
Yeah, there will likely be a hole in feeders in the fall. And we'll probably also see the commodity traders act surprised in a few months. They'll sell off LC contracts in panic when somebody starts talking about a 'wall of cattle' that will be coming when these June placements start to get finished.
 

nortexsook

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Opportunity knocks if you have the wherewithal to make it happen. There is going to be a huge hole in feeders in a few months. If the market does tank then a smart man is loading the boat. I really doubt this is any surprise to the "men in the field". Every order buyer I have talked to is very aware of the coming shortage of feeder cattle. So if this scares some paper cowboys out then I just look at it as a way to make some money off the "dumb money".
 

Bullhauler

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Texan said:
CHICAGO, Jul 22, 2011 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --

TOP STORIES

US Cattle Placed In Feedlots Rise In June From Year Ago

The number of young cattle added to feedlots in June was 4.1% higher compared to last year as drought-stricken producers sold animals to feedlots earlier than expected. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its semiannual cattle-inventory and monthly cattle-on-feed reports Friday, after trading closed. Feedlots added 1.7 million young animals, which are known as feeders, during June. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected the USDA to show feedlots made 1.58 million placements, or 7.6% less than in June of last year.


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/DJ_LIVESTOCK_HIGHLIGHTS__Top_Stories_Of_The_Day_161992043.html


Actual placement were up 4.1% when analysts had expected them to be down 7.6%? That means that June placements were more than 11% higher than expected. I would expect that we're in for a rough ride when the boards open up Monday.

Probably already seeing it in the Saturday sales today - I'll find out for sure sometime after midnight. Did anybody else make a sale today?


Looks like your handwringing was much ado about nothing. Just another boring day at the market.
 

Texan

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Bullhauler said:
Looks like your handwringing was much ado about nothing. Just another boring day at the market.
Yeah, looks like the biggest loss was only 70 cents and that was kinda surprising to me. I figured it would be down at least $1.50 or so. And I wouldn't have been surprised to see it limit down on some contracts.

Unfortunately, cattle at the Saturday sales in Texas were down quite a bit more in some spots. Here's Buffalo:

AM_LS159
Amarillo, TX Mon Jul 25, 2011 USDA-TX Dept of Ag Market News

Buffalo Livestock Commission Co. - Buffalo, TX - Saturday - 07/23/11

Cattle and Calves: 2930 Week Ago: 2679 Year Ago: 1523

Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 4.00-6.00 lower, few 8.00
lower.
Slaughter cows and bulls 4.00-5.00 lower.

It looks like part of the reason that the boards weren't down any more is that nobody believes the USDA numbers. This is what they had to say about it at The Cattle Report. I'll pull a good quote out of it just to show what a joke the USDA has become - they can't even count their own employees:

How many people actually work at USDA? In an interesting development, Vilsack said he cannot find out how many thousands of employees he has at USDA. “They could tell me how many checks are issued, but not how many people work here,” he said. “It was the first question I asked the transition staff when the president nominated me for this position. I was interested to know how many people actually work at USDA,” Vilsack said. “And I was told that no one knows for sure.”

WHEN THE GOVERNMENT PUTS THE NUMBERS TOGETHER

The average guess for placements of cattle into the nation's feedyards in June was 94% of prior year. When the report was released Friday afternoon, USDA reported the figure to be 104%. First it must be said that you do not have to be a PhD statistician to be accepted into the pool of firms submitting guesses. Some firms in the pool do back their guesses with statistical analysis but some do not. Still the number was an extremely large variance to the USDA estimates.

USDA released two important reports Friday -- the monthly Cattle on Feed report and the mid year cattle inventory of the nation's cattle herd. A closer look at how the government gathers the numbers does not do a lot of confidence building for those making use of the results. In an electronic information age, the data collected, analyzed and reported is done according to protocols probably set up 50 years ago. USDA has never been known for embracing change.

The first clue to how this organization is able to manage numbers is the personal testimony of Secretary Vilsack following his appointment. He was asked how many people worked at USDA and was told by staffers that nobody knows. He told a reporter that "they can tell me how many checks we write each month for employment but not how many people work here". Anyone relying on USDA numbers might find it of interest that they can't even count there own staff so how can they count the cows.

The methodologies of data collection are disclosed to the public. With respect to the semi annual cattle inventory:

Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2011.

This might be helpful to Secretary Vilsack to locate the staff required to handle 100,000 personal interviews a year with breeders and feeders. Of particular relevance is the methodology. USDA is relying on submitted information and interviews without any data verification for their numbers. Data verification would not be easy but should be part of the sampling techniques. Breeders might distort their information in order to pay less on a government lease or some feedlots might change their numbers because of local property taxes. Or some operators might want to "big shot" it by overstating their numbers.

With respect to cattle on feed number gathering we are told:

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

Cattle on feed numbers are based on mail, telephone and interviews. The data works up the chain from regional to state to national numbers. The entire project cries for modernization and no tool could be more valuable than mandatory animal identification. If by law, every animal is identified, the manager of the national animal database, or any user, could press a button anytime and know the profile of the national herd up to the minute. This could be on the web and available to every operator in the country. Cattle on feed could be done every morning or week or month and would reflect all the most recent placements, marketings and on feed numbers and they would be 100% [maybe not quite 100] accurate. They would be based off actual verifiable numbers.

FOOTNOTE: The Department of Agriculture is thought to employ 110,000 people today. Ten years ago that number was just over 80,000 people. Over 40% of U.S. job growth in the past 20 years has been from government and health care employment.

How many people actually work at USDA? In an interesting development, Vilsack said he cannot find out how many thousands of employees he has at USDA. “They could tell me how many checks are issued, but not how many people work here,” he said. “It was the first question I asked the transition staff when the president nominated me for this position. I was interested to know how many people actually work at USDA,” Vilsack said. “And I was told that no one knows for sure.”

Vilsack said the department’s computer system is so outdated they are not sure how many full- and part-time employees are on the payroll. “That together with a number of reports from the Inspector General’s office and the (General Accountability Office) concerning the operations and management suggested that what we have here in some aspects and areas is charitably outdated,” Vilsack concluded.

Recommendation: Secretary Vilsack should use the same interview and sampling methodology used to collect cattle data to discover how many people work for USDA.


http://www.agcenter.com/newcattlereport.aspx
 

SMN Herf

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The USDA has been getting pretty good at writing comic strips lately. Its almost like they come up with a predetermined result and make the numbers up in order to get the result. Just look what they did with the crop acres reoport on the end of June. 2 to 3 million more acres of corn than any private report came up with. But look what happend after the report. Corn slippped for a couple days on the paper traders running for the hills, but the smart money and end users like ethanol plants and importers like China and Egypt saying thank you for the bargain as they bought up a whole bunch of it at much cheapre prices before the price went up again.
Its almost like they are trying to create cheaper food through market reports but the end result will actually be higher food price spikes as they are simply interfering with the markets job of rationing demand.
 

rancherfred

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After watching the joke that is USDA issue report after report only to correct every single one in subsequent months a person starts to wonder how many USDA employees are actually trading their reports. There is no reason to be that consistently wrong and cause the turmoil in the markets that these idiots do.
 

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