Hard Data...

[Murgen]

Sandhusker, do you not think that ag-producers could do a bit better by taking into account analyist predictions?

I don't think it is a tool that is used often enough! From what I have seen, it's more, "this is the way we have always done it" attitude.

Kind of like using your local elevator etc. to tell you what you need for fertilizer, seed population, chemical etc. Why are they making those recomendations?

Wouldn't it be nice to have someone that is independeant, unbiased to come in and let you know what you should do, and then you can make an "informed" decision. A degree of inaccuracy is to be expected, but a greater degree of inaccuracy is quaranteed, if not asking for opinions, and just watching the clouds! Is your marketing plan based on your weather locally? Plan for failure if it is!

I would hate to see the lack of analyists, that would only provide for less ability to make an informed decision!

 

[fedup2]

Murgen, you write: "Sandhusker, do you not think that ag-producers could do a bit better by taking into account analyist predictions?
I don't think it is a tool that is used often enough! From what I have seen, it's more, "this is the way we have always done it" attitude."

I have to disagree with this statement Murgen. As a producer you have no business dealing with analysts predictions. That is for speculators. I have been trading commodities for about 12 years and I am considered one of those dirty speculators! LOL!
As a producer, your concern is hedging. There is a difference between a marketing advisor and an analyst who predicts for the masses. Your market advisor (might be a better name but!) knows your personal situation. One size does not fit all. He/she will give you options to deal with a variety of situations.

Even with the user friendly computer records, many ranchers that I know still bring in a shoebox full of receipts to their accountants. Its pretty hard for someone to help these people hedge when they don't have a clue what their bottom line is on anything. They don't want to go through a bunch of record keeping. They want answers like driving through a fast food place and the answers are handed to them. Much like some posters on this forum. Learning was not meant to be effortless! I have always liked the old saying: "If you think education is expensive, try ignorance!"

As I have 2 different brokers, I get lots of market 'newsletters'. Some deal with fundamentals, some technical, harmonic timing, etc. None have any high degree of accuracy. They all have their moments but I wouldn't trade on any of their predictions!

You should be able to call your broker, advisor, etc and give them the information they need to help you: 'I have x head of calves that I plan on selling in Nov, I need protection against a price drop until that time'. Your broker should be able to give you your best option, but he needs information from you. A prediction of 'don't worry about it, I think cattle will go up' isn't going to get the job done.
I do agree that learning to use this part of marketing is a valuable tool. In fact its getting to be a necessity! I would love to see a discussion on this!

(This might just be confusion on the use of the words anlysts & predictions. I agree on most of what you wrote.)

 

[agman]

Agman, 'What was my corn call last spring? Exactly what did I say that you think was off target. The stage is yours."



You stated that the harvest would not be close to projections. Your reasoning was that much of the acreage planted was substandard and would not produce the kind of yields necessary to meeting projections.

That is correct and when was that date? It was long before we had ideal growing conditions that produced a crop that was 1.7 billion greater than the previous record. In fact, if I recall it was before the crop was ever planted. As conditions suggested a record crop was in the making so did my forecast change to reflect that condition.

You statement was made after the crop was planted and had emerged in this country. If you're really good, you wouldn't have to change your forecast, would you? Anybody can do that. You could state the prices of the commodities on certain dates within a week months in advance, and Jason could take large positions and reap huge rewards. I generally adjust my rain predictions when a dark cloud approaches from the West, and have found I have a high degree of accuracy.

It kind of goes with my original statement that there are many unforseen variables that make it impossible for ANYBODY to have a high degree of accuracy. I don't fault you or anybody for not being totally accurate, or even right most of the time - that's just the way it is. However, when I hear of somebody bragging of their record, a big red flag comes up. Warren Buffet says the minute you think you know what the market is going to do is the minute right before you lose your shirt. Buffets record of accurcy speaks for itself.

Only a small time banker like you can make a statement and be so naive as to suggest conditions won't change that would cause one to alter the expected outcome.

Certainly conditions can and do change and that is why forecasting is not static nor always perfect. Where have you heard me brag about predictions? I say very little on this forum regarding market expectations for the very reason you cited - taking one statement and running with it without the benefit of seeing follow up research when required by changing conditions. You never get to see any of my original or follow-up research so you most certainly are not in any position to make any claim whatsoever.

The key to research is the underlying assumptions from which a forecast is derived. If any of those assumption are not being met then a change in the forecast must follow. Anyone with any real market experience knows that.

 

[Sandhusker]

Agman, "Only a small time banker like you can make a statement and be so naive as to suggest conditions won't change that would cause one to alter the expected outcome."

Let me refresh your memory on what I said, Agman; "It kind of goes with my original statement that there are many unforseen variables that make it impossible for ANYBODY to have a high degree of accuracy. "

Reading comprehension - I can recommend a good class at Small Time Banker's School...

 

[Sandhusker]

Sandhusker, do you not think that ag-producers could do a bit better by taking into account analyist predictions?

I don't think it is a tool that is used often enough! From what I have seen, it's more, "this is the way we have always done it" attitude.

Kind of like using your local elevator etc. to tell you what you need for fertilizer, seed population, chemical etc. Why are they making those recomendations?

Wouldn't it be nice to have someone that is independeant, unbiased to come in and let you know what you should do, and then you can make an "informed" decision. A degree of inaccuracy is to be expected, but a greater degree of inaccuracy is quaranteed, if not asking for opinions, and just watching the clouds! Is your marketing plan based on your weather locally? Plan for failure if it is!

I would hate to see the lack of analyists, that would only provide for less ability to make an informed decision!

I agree very much so with what Fedup said and a lot of what you said.

There are people out there who sit down with you and create a hedge or other position based on your operation and concerns.

I"ve listened to more stock and commodities analysts than I care to admit to. I've learned the hard way to never put a dime on their predictions. I think a wise man listens to them and takes their reasoning under advisement, but keep your money in your wallet and do what is best for your operation.

I'm very interested in trading futures and have read a lot from the "big boys" who do it for a living. They will tell you they are doing good to be correct 40% of the time. That might be OK for speculating, but I don't think that is acceptable for your business.

 

[agman]

Agman, "Only a small time banker like you can make a statement and be so naive as to suggest conditions won't change that would cause one to alter the expected outcome."

Let me refresh your memory on what I said, Agman; "It kind of goes with my original statement that there are many unforseen variables that make it impossible for ANYBODY to have a high degree of accuracy. "

Reading comprehension - I can recommend a good class at Small Time Banker's School...

Perhaps I should teach that class and then you could learn something really useful. But no thanks, I get plenty of opportunity to work with many of the largest leading institutions in the country - right up to the very highest levels of finance. I am confident I have gotten to know and work with the very best Ag-bankers in this country. I am truly blessed to have that opportunity.

Did crop conditions during said year not change as the crop season progressed? Were conditions the same on July 4 as at emergence? If they did not change then you have a valid point. If the crop progress did change your statement is worthless.

 

[Sandhusker]

Ain't you a dandy. Give yourself a star, but you still need a reading comprehension class. Don't you think rain might be one of those variables that I mentioned? :?

 

[Anonymous]

Sandman (to Agman): "You statement was made after the crop was planted and had emerged in this country. If you're really good, you wouldn't have to change your forecast, would you?"

Show everyone where Agman predicted the weather. I don't see you making any predictions because you wouldn't want to be held accountable would you? Nah, critiquing other's predictions take out of context is much more to your comfort zone. Kinda parasitic like!


~SH~

 

[Sandhusker]

Sandman (to Agman): "You statement was made after the crop was planted and had emerged in this country. If you're really good, you wouldn't have to change your forecast, would you?"

Show everyone where Agman predicted the weather. I don't see you making any predictions because you wouldn't want to be held accountable would you? Nah, critiquing other's predictions take out of context is much more to your comfort zone. Kinda parasitic like!


~SH~

Show me where I said Agman predicted the weather. READING COMPREHENSION. Show me where I took his prediction out of context.

I said I didn't hold it against him to be wrong. Did you miss that? I said NOBODY can have a high degree of accuracy in his profession. Did you miss that?

If you can't understand basic statements, have someone read for you and explain what was read.

 

[Anonymous]

Sandflea nobody is stupid enough to make a prediction that doesn't account for weather changes which is exactly what you are accusing Agman of doing. He may have made a predicition but that prediction was never made without the ability to update based on more current information. That's like saying that the Futures market should never change since the predictions for today should hold true for tommorrow. Quit acting like such an idiot all the time just so you can pretend to be smarter than you are.

If you know anything about market predictions you know the best analysts make predictions based on the best available information for that time and they update their predictions continually as market factors change. If they didn't, they wouldn't have any customers. I happen to have talked to some of Agman's top customers and they told me flat out that his predictions are amazingly accurate but unlike so many market analysts, he doesn't venture much into the arena of speculation. His predictions are based on facts of supply and demand. I know his marketing advise has certainly helped me.

I'm sure you couldn't relate to the value of factual data considering the conspiracy driven world that you live in.


~SH~

 

[agman]

Ain't you a dandy. Give yourself a star, but you still need a reading comprehension class. Don't you think rain might be one of those variables that I mentioned? :?

Yes, rain was a variable so why do you hang onto one comment I made early in the growing season. You never had access to any followup research or comments did you? As I said, I limit comments on this forum because of people like you have nothing to offer but will take a comment out of context just as you did.

I have never failed to answer a PM or followup a question when it was required via a PM. Everyone to-date has been thankful for the help while you want to ridicule.

As a banker I hope you can change your opinion if factors you expect to occur do not develop. I got some excellent advice at a very young age from one of the most successful investors I have had the pleasure to know and work with. Everyone should take and learn from his advice, "It is not wrong to be wrong, it is wrong to stay wrong".

 

[Anonymous]

If you talk to enough of these "penthouse experts" predictions you find that usually at least one is right---odds are about the same as trying to fill an inside straight on the last flop......

I talked to mine today--She said that pig spleens, whitemans woodpiles, and beaver dams say it will be an easy winter...Big feedpiles and if the border rules stay in effect with no changes cattle prices will stay strong- even strengthen...Been right the last few years and she's cheaper than the Agmans- Harlan Hughes type ouija board readers.....Get the same prognostications for the price of a couple drinks :wink: :lol: :lol:

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

Oldtimer you keep talking that the reason the price has gone up in the US is that the"BORDER ISN"T REALLY OPEN".
Well pre BSE during the fall run we usually sent 3000 to 4500 calves a week south . This year it is closer to 9-12,000 a week. And your market stenghtened. Guess you needed our cattle to fill your needs and eat your feed grain. oh and feed your consumers. It would have been nice to feed those calves at home and sent it in a box but I guess we won't look a gift horse in the mouth. Guess when Japan opens up again it will be Canadian beef filling their needs as well.

 

[Anonymous]

Old Timer,

You wouldn't be referring to those idiots that predicted the crash of the cattle market when the border opened to live cattle would you?

Can you help me remember who made that ridiculous prediction?

Was that reading tea leaves or spitting in the wagon?


~SH~

 

[Sandhusker]

Old Timer,

You wouldn't be referring to those idiots that predicted the crash of the cattle market when the border opened to live cattle would you?

Can you help me remember who made that ridiculous prediction?

Was that reading tea leaves or spitting in the wagon?


~SH~

Who made the prediction that Japan would open to the US 6 months after the election?

Was that counting gopher mounds or ticks on a rabbit? :wink:

 

[Anonymous]

Oldtimer you keep talking that the reason the price has gone up in the US is that the"BORDER ISN"T REALLY OPEN".
Well pre BSE during the fall run we usually sent 3000 to 4500 calves a week south . This year it is closer to 9-12,000 a week. And your market stenghtened. Guess you needed our cattle to fill your needs and eat your feed grain. oh and feed your consumers. It would have been nice to feed those calves at home and sent it in a box but I guess we won't look a gift horse in the mouth. Guess when Japan opens up again it will be Canadian beef filling their needs as well.

Just think of what the price could have been if those Canadian calves (even with the $10-20 extra border restriction costs) hadn't been going into the US producers developed market to sell as US beef? :wink: Except Canada did that to the US producer for 10+ years with their "all US cattle are diseased" trade barriers.....

NCBA (and their twin CCA) said for 20 years- Better prices are coming- free trade will do it....Saw good prices about 3 out of the 20 years ...

R-CALF said-- close the border and you will have good prices-- ever since the prices have continued to set new records....

I guess my money will stay with R-CALF's ouija board reader...... :wink:

 

[Anonymous]

Sandman: "Who made the prediction that Japan would open to the US 6 months after the election?"

I don't know, you tell me!

Trying to divert from the fact that R-CULT predicted a market crash when the Canadian border opened and here it is opened and cattle prices are higher than last year.

Why don't you just once have the integrity to admit that R-CULT was full of sh*t on that prediction instead of diverting.



~SH~

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

Sandman: "Who made the prediction that Japan would open to the US 6 months after the election?"

I don't know, you tell me!

Trying to divert from the fact that R-CULT predicted a market crash when the Canadian border opened and here it is opened and cattle prices are higher than last year.

Why don't you just once have the integrity to admit that R-CULT was full of sh*t on that prediction instead of diverting.



~SH~

Don't forget Scott, Sandhusker forgot that it might rain when that prediction was made. You know that changes everything and Sandhuker and R-CALF didn't figure that in.

 

[Sandhusker]

Sandman: "Who made the prediction that Japan would open to the US 6 months after the election?"

I don't know, you tell me!

Trying to divert from the fact that R-CULT predicted a market crash when the Canadian border opened and here it is opened and cattle prices are higher than last year.

Why don't you just once have the integrity to admit that R-CULT was full of sh*t on that prediction instead of diverting.



~SH~

It was you! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

The border is opened? How many OTM cattle have come down lately?

 

[Anonymous]

For me to make an off the cuff prediction on when I thought Japan MIGHT open their borders is hardly comparable to an organization that "CLAIMS" to represent the cattlemen predicting that the opening of the Canadian border would drop cattle prices dramatically. Everyone knew mine was a guess where they actually believed R-CULT. The two are not even remotely comparable. R-CALF made their statement in court testimony.

THEY WERE WRONG, AGAIN!

More diversion from you to avoid having to admit that R-CULT lied again.



~SH~