Rod, did you notice that much of the information given in the article about the things that affected beef demand were from just a one year period? You can get any data set and make it what you want. Ask Agman. To see things that you can work with to influence change, you have to look at those one year periods for the previous 19 years, not just one out of the 19 and see what the factors were that decreased demand there. This article did not do that. It is one of the weaknesses. It doesn't mean the data Phil's old prof. looked at was wrong, it just doesnt' show the whole picture or one as complete as I would like to see.
The interesting points which I do happen to agree with are:
1) Consumers need to know the quality of meat they are buying when they are buying it at the store (pg. 2 upper rt. hand column before Expenditure Impact on Beef Demand). If they are looking for a good eating experience and buy a substandard piece of meat and are disappointed, it will show up in the next sale. That is why we have "independent" grading by a govt. agency. It seems that "independent" information is not making it to the retail customer, one of my gripes.
2) Food Safety recalls do affect meat demand so have a system that is credible that makes sure we have little or no recalls. The batch method of processing that is "efficient" creates recalls that are huge when they happen. Reducing the size of recalls makes them less of a problem. Reducing recalls through independent oversight is a must. NOT ALLOWING MEAT RECALLS WHEN WARRENTED IS THE WORST POLICY. Meat packers want MID for cattle they buy but they want to shield themselves from recalls from their places. (See posted article).
3) Health issues are a relative problem. The poultry industry is probably the worst when it comes to plant issues but you hear a lot less about them. The studies on poultry vs. beef cited in the news mass media are studies that are promoted by industry through their avenues of information dessimination. These avenues must be studied and understood to be able to combat the distortions they can bring. When I say health issues are a relative problem, the relative problem is the perception of health vs. the substitutes of pork and chicken compared to beef. I think most large beef recalls do include ground beef that is batch produced or where the plant has not used proper hygene/slaughter methods and contaminated many lbs. All processing plants need to be indentified easily on the packge of the product to protect consumers. IF PACKERS WANT MID THEY SHOULD START DOING IT THEMSELVES FROM THEIR DOOR TO THE RETAIL CUSTOMER.
4) Other Goods price--I want to address this because it is so important to the over all economy. Our market economies reflect relative prices. What I mean is that prices are relative to other goods sold. If for instance, the prices of all goods went down and beef remained the same, the price of beef actually goes up in real terms. With globalization, this is partly what has happened. We are importing goods from other countries that can produce them cheaper largely because they do not have the labor costs and infrastructure costs we have here in the U.S. Our infrastructure costs are one of our most important assets. These include everything from roads to schools to social security plans, to labor protections to universal utilities like electricity and phone systems and I would even include political freedoms. When other countries can take products from the U.S. (take chicken for example) and process it and then ship it back over here for less than we can do it all here, we need to look at why. Much of the time it is because these countries we are dealing with do not have the infrastructure costs that we have. Infrastructure does make our quality of life better, but when we trade with other countries we have to keep in mind the effects that the trade has on us. My argument on trade is that we are benefiting from the price differences in trade based on these differences but at what cost? Who is benefitting? Is the preiminance of a non democratic totalitarian China that is saber rattling Tiawan worth the trade? These are the questions we should be asking.
5. The factors of actual beef demand were given for a one year period (1998-1999pg. 4) when the trend has been a 19 year trend. What were the REAL factors that attributed to beef demand over those other 18 years? I want to see those time periods compared under the same methodology used in the 1998-1999. Beef trade is not included in the results at all. We all know international markets are "dumping" markets. What is the consequence of trade if trade figures so predominantly in the economy?
Other questions but no more time now.