Katrina-- $10 Wheat

[Anonymous]

From Moneynews:
Now, a Massive Pesticide-Resistant Fungus is Threatening Worldwide
Wheat Crops and About to Send Prices to Record Highs.

A massive pesticide-resistant fungus known as "wheat rust Ug99," is threatening billions of dollars of wheat crops in Asia. This fungus, which is named for the place and date of its first discovery (Uganda in 1999), has spread across East Africa and the Middle East and is now threatening wheat crops in Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India with chilling implications.

So far NO cure has been found to kill this fungus!

The last outbreak of stem rust in North America in 1954 wiped out 40% of the region's wheat crop, sending food prices through the roof.

The fungus is destroying wheat harvests at a time when the world's supply of wheat is already stressed to the breaking point. The consumption of wheat has outstripped the available supply during six of the past seven years.

The increased demand for crop-based fuels is forcing prices of wheat, corn and other grains higher as well. This latest need for these types of alternative energy sources is putting pressure on food prices throughout the world and unleashing a unique source of inflationary pressure.

Global grain supplies are at their lowest level in more than three decades and some experts fear the situation could get worse if more crops are set aside to make ethanol or other forms of alternative energy.

A major crisis is about to unfold. The warning signs are everywhere:

On August 31 wheat futures in Chicago hit a record high on track for the biggest monthly gain in 34 years!
Skyrocketing demand from South Korea and India reduced inventories to dangerously low levels.
Prices for the grain have doubled in the past year as poor weather in Australia, parts of Canada, Europe, and the Ukraine, damaged crops
According to the U.S, Department of Agriculture, global stockpiles of wheat have fallen to the lowest level in 26 years.
Furthermore, China's growing demand for food products has quadrupled over the past five years, and continues to rise today. In fact China and India are coming dangerously close to a situation where nothing short of a miracle harvest will be enough to meet their needs and prevent additional increases in already surging food prices.

Fueled by rapid economic growth, China and India, as well as scores of other emerging economies, expect to see food prices soar even higher in the coming year.

And like the current housing crisis in America, the news will get worse before it gets better.

The good news for investors is that most crises also create opportunities to make big profits.

 

[katrina]

I hadn't heard that!!!!!
Did anyone else hear on the radio about milk going up in price cause farmers were feeding the cows wheat???? I heard that today on the radio........ :roll: :roll:

Actually all of our wheat stays right here in the good old usa..... Yes sir we are feeding america..... And I'm dang proud to do so......

 

[Anonymous]

Several local large wheat farmers last fall when wheat was still around $3, were offered $5 bushel- but in order to do so, had to sign into a long term contract for so many bushels a year (3 or 5 years I believe).... Some did...

I was talking with one after he had contracted about 3/4 of his average production--and like he told me was that $5 was good money and that it would be a good profit...Not being a prognosticater of commodity or grain prices My comment was-- "but if they're offering that much now-- it makes you wonder what do they know that we don't?"...

I don't think any of those guys were also expecting the rising cost rate and inflation rate as high as I believe it will be....

The other question I have-- If this rust problem in Asia and the mideast is as bad as this commodity site says-- Is the USDA still allowing importing of wheat, straw, and wheat glutens from China and all those countries over there- easing the ability for it to spread to here? :???:

Somehow- USDA's past history in cattle diseases and putting the importers pocketbook ahead of either US herd or US consumer health doesn't give me feeling that they are on the top of things :wink:

 

[Anonymous]

Australia beef crisis hits as drought decimates wheat

Published Thursday, September 27, 2007 at 05:01 AMSYDNEY, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Record high grain prices have thrown Australia's A$4 billion ($3.5 billion) beef cattle industry into disarray, emptying feedlots, cutting cattle saleyard prices and triggering price rises for domestic and exported beef.

The world's biggest beef exporter by value and the second-biggest exporter by volume, parts of Australia's beef industry have begun to shut down after feed grain prices doubled since June because of the decimation of crops by drought.

"Supplies of quality beef onto the domestic market and to export markets are going to start reducing quite substantially," said Malcolm Foster, president of the Australian Lotfeeders Association.

"It's very bad. There wouldn't be a feedlot making money now," he said. Australia has 700 feedlots.

Cattle on feed had already begun to drop off and the industry, now urgently counting numbers around the country, was already in crisis, Foster said.

"You will certainly see shortages of quality beef ... And because pasture conditions are impacted by drought, the cattle aren't going to be anything very flash," he said.

Beef prices would shoot up until consumers were no longer willing to pay, Foster said. "It's already started," he said.

Peter Weeks, chief market analyst at industry representative body Meat & Livestock Australia, sees price rises looming for Australia's big export trade, to Japan and Korea in North Asia, and to the United States. "Something has to give. If they don't get relief from grain prices coming down suddenly, and it doesn't like like they will, then the relief has to come through with increased prices to customers overseas," he said.

Feedlots fatten steers before export to lucrative markets overseas, mainly using wheat, barley and sorghum. Prices of all grains have soared as drought decimated crops.

Wheat futures prices have almost doubled since May, from less than A$250 a tonne to a recent record high of A$492 on the Australian Stock Exchange.

The Australian government last week slashed its forecast of the national wheat crop by over 30 percent to 15.5 million tonnes. Private forecasters say the crop could fall to 12 million tonnes, less than half first forecasts of 26 million tonnes.

Cattle saleyard prices have dropped as feedlot demand dries up. Compared with a year ago, feeder steer prices were last week down by between 10 percent and 17 percent, depending on location, to 172 cents a kilogram in the cattle state of Queensland.

Prices have fallen by 13 percent over the last month alone, with longfed cattle prices down by as much as 20 percent.

In many areas, farmers have opened the gates on grain growing fields, letting livestock loose to eat dried-out crops.

Weeks sees beef supplies falling into the peak export season, between November and January, to pressure supplies to the key north Asian markets of Japan and Korea.

Anecdotal evidence showed that many feedlots had completely closed down, including medium-sized feedlots, not just small opportunity lots, Weeks said.

This time last year, most feedlots had full pens, in preparation for the peak export season. This year, none are at full capacity and those still operating had cut back, he said.

Looming imports of grain -- only the second time Australia has been forced to import wheat since colonial times -- will not assist the cattle industry.

Australian quarantine regulations prohibit the transport of unprocessed imported grain beyond metropolitan areas, and a A$40 a tonne processing cost is prohibitively expensive for the cattle industry, Foster said.

The last time imports occurred, in 2003, none went upcountry.

As crops shrink fast, much of Australia's beef cattle industry would have to close down, Foster said. "And wait it out." ($1=A$1.14)

www.kticam.com

 

[Doug Thorson]

Global grain supplies are at their lowest level in more than three decades and some experts fear the situation could get worse if more crops are set aside to make ethanol or other forms of alternative energy.

I thought about this only with the corn market a while ago and I came to a conclusion. I feel that the government has long had a policy of cheap food but no policy on energy. They created a policy on energy but that screwed up the cheap food policy.
The government in their infinite wisdom cannot actually fix anything the best they can do is shift the problem!

 

[katrina]

Global grain supplies are at their lowest level in more than three decades and some experts fear the situation could get worse if more crops are set aside to make ethanol or other forms of alternative energy.

I thought about this only with the corn market a while ago and I came to a conclusion. I feel that the government has long had a policy of cheap food but no policy on energy. They created a policy on energy but that screwed up the cheap food policy.
The government in their infinite wisdom cannot actually fix anything the best they can do is shift the problem!

Less government we have, the better we all are:

 

[cowzilla]

Australia beef crisis hits as drought decimates wheat

Published Thursday, September 27, 2007 at 05:01 AMSYDNEY, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Record high grain prices have thrown Australia's A$4 billion ($3.5 billion) beef cattle industry into disarray, emptying feedlots, cutting cattle saleyard prices and triggering price rises for domestic and exported beef.

The world's biggest beef exporter by value and the second-biggest exporter by volume, parts of Australia's beef industry have begun to shut down after feed grain prices doubled since June because of the decimation of crops by drought.

"Supplies of quality beef onto the domestic market and to export markets are going to start reducing quite substantially," said Malcolm Foster, president of the Australian Lotfeeders Association.

"It's very bad. There wouldn't be a feedlot making money now," he said. Australia has 700 feedlots.

Cattle on feed had already begun to drop off and the industry, now urgently counting numbers around the country, was already in crisis, Foster said.

"You will certainly see shortages of quality beef ... And because pasture conditions are impacted by drought, the cattle aren't going to be anything very flash," he said.

Beef prices would shoot up until consumers were no longer willing to pay, Foster said. "It's already started," he said.

Peter Weeks, chief market analyst at industry representative body Meat & Livestock Australia, sees price rises looming for Australia's big export trade, to Japan and Korea in North Asia, and to the United States. "Something has to give. If they don't get relief from grain prices coming down suddenly, and it doesn't like like they will, then the relief has to come through with increased prices to customers overseas," he said.

Feedlots fatten steers before export to lucrative markets overseas, mainly using wheat, barley and sorghum. Prices of all grains have soared as drought decimated crops.

Wheat futures prices have almost doubled since May, from less than A$250 a tonne to a recent record high of A$492 on the Australian Stock Exchange.

The Australian government last week slashed its forecast of the national wheat crop by over 30 percent to 15.5 million tonnes. Private forecasters say the crop could fall to 12 million tonnes, less than half first forecasts of 26 million tonnes.

Cattle saleyard prices have dropped as feedlot demand dries up. Compared with a year ago, feeder steer prices were last week down by between 10 percent and 17 percent, depending on location, to 172 cents a kilogram in the cattle state of Queensland.

Prices have fallen by 13 percent over the last month alone, with longfed cattle prices down by as much as 20 percent.

In many areas, farmers have opened the gates on grain growing fields, letting livestock loose to eat dried-out crops.

Weeks sees beef supplies falling into the peak export season, between November and January, to pressure supplies to the key north Asian markets of Japan and Korea.

Anecdotal evidence showed that many feedlots had completely closed down, including medium-sized feedlots, not just small opportunity lots, Weeks said.

This time last year, most feedlots had full pens, in preparation for the peak export season. This year, none are at full capacity and those still operating had cut back, he said.

Looming imports of grain -- only the second time Australia has been forced to import wheat since colonial times -- will not assist the cattle industry.

Australian quarantine regulations prohibit the transport of unprocessed imported grain beyond metropolitan areas, and a A$40 a tonne processing cost is prohibitively expensive for the cattle industry, Foster said.

The last time imports occurred, in 2003, none went upcountry.

As crops shrink fast, much of Australia's beef cattle industry would have to close down, Foster said. "And wait it out." ($1=A$1.14)

www.kticam.com

Looks like the right conditions for an increase in world beef prices as tonnage decreases and the demand for protien continues :wink:

 

[Anonymous]

Yep-cowzilla it does look optomistic... Lot of folks around here seeded a lot of winter wheat this fall..... Even my neighbor that broke up a bunch of old irrigated hayfields- usually seeds them to oats as a rotation before he puts them back into alfalfa...This year they are solid winter wheat....

I was just teasing Katrina before about holding on to the wheat, until it gets to $10--now I'm starting to think about it.... :wink: :lol:

 

[jkvikefan]

The price of milk has nothing to do with what dairymen feed their cows.That is just stupid people trying to get other stupid people to believe that farmers are getting rich at their expense. While the price of milk may be pretty good right now, the inputs have risen right along with the milk price.

 

[katrina]

The price of milk has nothing to do with what dairymen feed their cows.That is just stupid people trying to get other stupid people to believe that farmers are getting rich at their expense. While the price of milk may be pretty good right now, the inputs have risen right along with the milk price.

No kidding.......... And who feeds their milk cows wheat???? :roll: :roll: I thought my hubby was going to blow a gasket when we heard it on the weather channel...... :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: Talk about false reporting....

 

[Anonymous]

The price of milk has nothing to do with what dairymen feed their cows.That is just stupid people trying to get other stupid people to believe that farmers are getting rich at their expense. While the price of milk may be pretty good right now, the inputs have risen right along with the milk price.

No kidding.......... And who feeds their milk cows wheat???? :roll: :roll: I thought my hubby was going to blow a gasket when we heard it on the weather channel...... :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: Talk about false reporting....

Katrina-- with the reporters of today, just be content they know that milk comes from cows :roll: :wink: :lol: