Market Optimism?

[Anonymous]

I went to the local Bred cow and heifer sale today- have never seen such a packed house..... Young bred cows selling for as high as $1490- short termers ( 10 and 11 year old solid mouths) as high as $1100.... Made you want to make sure you sat on your hands and didn't scratch or pick your nose while the bidding was going on- Even the single cow consignment fence crawling, bad bag, human hating animals were bringing over $1000 if they had a calf in them...

Some of these were heading down to Faster Horses and ranchers country on speculation of rain and grass- Most were on speculation of another year of high calf prices and NO border opening maintaining these prices- they think the courts will never let it open before next year.....

Then you talk with the calf buyers and none will quote a bid-- All waiting on the border decision... A couple told me that if the border opens many of the feeders will take a beating and the money will not be there to pay the good prices next year- both agreed that even if the border didn't open prices will be $10 less this year- if it opens they have no idea how much lower.................

 

[Mike]

They held a big cow/calf pair sale here last Saturday. Calves were 1-2 months. Over 400 pairs avg'ed $1,430. They must know something I don't.
Bunch of mixed up mongrels with some pretty good ears too.

 

[rkaiser]

:roll: Come on Oldtimer, did you walk down and ask those boys who were paying big bucks for their bred heifers if they were gambling on a closed border, or are you speculating with a protectionist agenda. Maybe those fellows don't live in the same FEAR world as Rcalf folk and see that an open border will NOT screw with their future.

 

[Manitoba_Rancher]

I agree with you randy. For one I think it is just plain crazy to pay this prices wiether the border opens or not. IF these were R-calfers paying these prices then these bastards will be the first ones bitching there loosing money when the border opens. Real good bred cows here were only bringing $550 last week!!!! RANDY Where do I find your bull sale lsiting I would like to have a look!

 

[Anonymous]

:roll: Come on Oldtimer, did you walk down and ask those boys who were paying big bucks for their bred heifers if they were gambling on a closed border, or are you speculating with a protectionist agenda. Maybe those fellows don't live in the same FEAR world as Rcalf folk and see that an open border will NOT screw with their future.

I didn't have to walk down and talk to anyone- I was sitting right with them--one I went to college with--Border speculation down here is kind of the talk of everyone down here when around the cow markets...

And no I don't know if they belong to R-CALF, NCBA, or the NAACP--kind of just the consensus- if the border stays closed there will be a good year- if it opens on March 7 everythings up in the air.... Everybody is kind of banking on NCBA, R-CALF, Farmers Union, Farm Bureau and the other lobbying groups to convince Congress to keep it closed-- If that fails many think the courts will then do it..........

 

[Murgen]

Well OT, If it's going to be a bad year if Canadian cattle come down, you better sell out now, cause it's going to happen! It's quite a fine mess you've gotten yourselves into. Fighting amonst yourselves and your fellow American cannot be blamed on one Canadian cow. Just yourselves. But it's probably worth the great profits you've made right?

 

[Anonymous]

It's quite a fine mess you've gotten yourselves into. Fighting amonst yourselves

I disagree Murgen- I think the border issue in the last few months have unified the US cattle industry closer than it has in the last 10 years-- If you look at the stand taken lately by FU, NCBA, R-CALF, AFB, OCM, LMA- they are very similar in many ways- just each has different methods and tactics at accomplishing their goal..........Some are working behind the scenes, some are more open and visual- some have more than one iron in the fire, but all right now are working with the same idea of keeping a safe and viable UNITED STATES OF AMERICA cattle industry.........

 

[Murgen]

OT- you been in this business before 2002? Did you make money, that's viable! Not a 1 and a half year span. Think long term for once in your life, not so short. Unless you're at the place in your life where you are redy to take advantage of your fellow producer. You remember the good old days, I think you've mentioned profits used to be higher, was there trade with Canada at that time?

 

[Clarence]

$1400 cows! It is good to see optimism. I am not a pessimist, but I believe you have to see reality. I believe the border will open, maybe not on March 7, but by mid or late summer. We can him and haw about number to be imported all wi want to, but an increase in supply will always cause a decline in price. Our cattle numbers here are on the increase. Those who pay the high prices for cows expect to be there before numbers get out of hand again. By the figures on demand that have been quoted our demand is still high, but with the increased price for beef, and other increses like fuel, automobiles, :roll: health care etc. we will soon see demamd go down.

I would not make any definate predictions, but would agree with Oldtimer that a $10 to $12 decrease in calves this fall might be a reality.

 

[Northern Rancher]

Well I wasn't even there and I can sure tell who the businessmen were at that sale Oldtimer-it was the sellers-if there ever was a time for the almight U.S. cattleman to get his ducks in a row and clean up debt -now is the time. If you can get that kind of money for old crocks -SELL EVERY ONE YOU CAN CATCH.