A
Anonymous
Guest
STRAIGHT UP NOW SANDHUSKER!
I want you to read this very carefully so you understand it completely.
Agman and I have corresponded back and forth regarding the information we both have in relation to the bet that you and I finally agreed to. After we both analyzed all the information we had available to us and seeing Agman stick to his guns, I have to conceed that you win ONLY because I confined myself to calendar year 2004 as opposed to the entire period of time when the border was closed , which goes back to my original statement that you wrongly called a lie.
Remember when you stated, "for simplicity, I propose the time frame to be 2004" ? Well, little did you know that this "simplicity" would become your victory and my defeat. With that kind of luck Sandman, you should really take that $100 to Vegas.
Had I not committed myself to calendar year 2004 but rather the entire period of time when the border was closed, as per the original bet, I would have won the bet and literally "nailed your @ss to the wall". Whether or not you would have accepted ALL THE INFORMATION I was prepared to provide or accepted Agman's data is another matter.
When I was focused on holding you to your words of only having to prove the Tyson side of the equation, rather than Tyson and Cargill, I sealed my doom by confining myself to calendar year 2004 even though my original position was for the entire period of time when the border was closed.
I could easily weasel my way out of this by referring back to the original bet that I placed and defending the original statement that you and Randy challenged me on but when I said, "THOSE ARE YOUR WORDS", and you responded with "FINE, SH, WHATEVER....." calendar year 2004 was a part of those words so I was committed to that time frame in good conscience. Stupid mistake on my part. Agman also believes that I have committed myself to calendar year 2004 and I respect his unwavering honesty.
To take this further, keep in mind that my original bet was:
Nowhere did I mention the 2004 time line in my original bet that I later foolishly committed myself to.
Your response to my original bet was:
To which I responded:
As anyone can plainly see, by asking this question in response to your position above, I committed myself to the 2004 calendar year here as well.
I have to admit that its mighty tempting to use my original bet and the original quote in question to shirk the 2004 calendar year committment but I know what I agreed to and I have a conscience. I also owe that to Agman for keeping me honest.
Now you need to understand something before you start gloating, I lost the bet ONLY because I confined myself to calendar year 2004 but I am absolutely right about the losses in Tyson's Boise and Pasco plants being greater than the profits in Tyson's Lakeside plant for the TOTAL period of time when the border was closed. Agman, the Tyson representative, and the information I have all agree on that.
When the Tyson representative I talked to said, "WAY MORE", I know now that it was with the understanding that I was talking about the TOTAL period of time when the border was closed because I did not stipulate the 2004 calendar year that I committed to in the bet. That is where the discrepency came in between the position of the Tyson representative I talked to and Agman's position.
If you read the information I presented, the heavy losses in the Pasco and Boise plants and the reduced slaughter in those plants started occuring in the 4th quarter of Tyson's FY 2004 (July - Sept. 2004) and extended into the 2nd quarter of Tyson's FY 2005 (Jan. - Mar. 2005).
That corresponds with Tyson's $16M and $19M losses if I am remembering those two figures correctly.
I commend Fedup for picking up on the time period in question. Good job Fedup! I wish more people would analyze the data the way you did.
Simultaneously, the profits in the Lakeside plants were reduced to virtually nothing in December of 2004. The Tyson financial reports I quoted from Cattle Buyers Weekly mentioned this.
Stop and think about it. As the Canadian feeder cattle moved through the system, there was less cattle available which resulted in the closed plants and shift reductions. Closing the Canadian border to imports of live cattle did not stop the slaughter of Canadian feeders that were being fed in the NW feedlots, it only stopped the live cattle that were finished in Canada. At the same time, Canada is increasing their slaughter capacity to account for some of the excessive supplies. That's when the losses in Boise and Pasco were greater than the profits at Lakeside. That is fact.
Now, because I have honored the bet in good faith and will send you a check for $100, I would ask you to honor something for me. I don't care if you buy beer for your Husker games or send it to the hurricane victims in New Orleans but I ask you not to give one thin dime to R-CULT. I'd rather you burned it.
Can you give me your word on that since I have honored the 2004 calendar year committment?
Either way, PM me with your address and I'll send you a check.
I would also ask for an apology for calling me a liar because what I said was true and the data supports it. I don't care what you call me but I take being called a liar very personal because I don't lie. If I state something that is untrue, I'll own up to it but I never intentionally mislead anyone and my $100 should be proof of that.
This has been fun and the research I was forced to conduct was worth the $100 investment. I learned a lot in the process and I hope others did as well. That's what this forum should be about. RELIABLE INFORMATION!
Randy, I'll let your conscience be your guide regarding whether or not you owe NCBA a check for $100. You are still wrong on all accounts while Sandhusker caught a break.
~SH~
I want you to read this very carefully so you understand it completely.
Agman and I have corresponded back and forth regarding the information we both have in relation to the bet that you and I finally agreed to. After we both analyzed all the information we had available to us and seeing Agman stick to his guns, I have to conceed that you win ONLY because I confined myself to calendar year 2004 as opposed to the entire period of time when the border was closed , which goes back to my original statement that you wrongly called a lie.
Remember when you stated, "for simplicity, I propose the time frame to be 2004" ? Well, little did you know that this "simplicity" would become your victory and my defeat. With that kind of luck Sandman, you should really take that $100 to Vegas.
Had I not committed myself to calendar year 2004 but rather the entire period of time when the border was closed, as per the original bet, I would have won the bet and literally "nailed your @ss to the wall". Whether or not you would have accepted ALL THE INFORMATION I was prepared to provide or accepted Agman's data is another matter.
When I was focused on holding you to your words of only having to prove the Tyson side of the equation, rather than Tyson and Cargill, I sealed my doom by confining myself to calendar year 2004 even though my original position was for the entire period of time when the border was closed.
I could easily weasel my way out of this by referring back to the original bet that I placed and defending the original statement that you and Randy challenged me on but when I said, "THOSE ARE YOUR WORDS", and you responded with "FINE, SH, WHATEVER....." calendar year 2004 was a part of those words so I was committed to that time frame in good conscience. Stupid mistake on my part. Agman also believes that I have committed myself to calendar year 2004 and I respect his unwavering honesty.
To take this further, keep in mind that my original bet was:
SH: "The bet is that the financial gains in Canadian packing plants by Excel and/or Tyson, during the period of time when Canadian live cattle imports were banned from the U.S., were offset by the losses in Tyson and/or Excel plants, in the U.S., that previously slaughtered Canadian cattle that no longer had Canadian cattle available to them. PARTICULARLY PLANTS IN THE NW."
Nowhere did I mention the 2004 time line in my original bet that I later foolishly committed myself to.
Your response to my original bet was:
Sandman (to SH): "Let me remind you of your original "questionable" statement; "that doesn't circumvent the fact that their NW U.S. plants were losing money which more than offset the gains in Canada."
Sandman: "NW plants are Idaho, Washington, and Oregon. Not "particularly", but "exclusively". If the plant is not in the NW, it is not part of the bet. Don't be trying to muddle this - this is simple. How much money did the Tyson plants located in the NW U.S. lose - how much did the Tyson plants located in Canada make during the same time frame. For simplicity, I propose the time frame to be year2004.
To which I responded:
SH: "Is this the terms of the bet or not"?
As anyone can plainly see, by asking this question in response to your position above, I committed myself to the 2004 calendar year here as well.
I have to admit that its mighty tempting to use my original bet and the original quote in question to shirk the 2004 calendar year committment but I know what I agreed to and I have a conscience. I also owe that to Agman for keeping me honest.
Now you need to understand something before you start gloating, I lost the bet ONLY because I confined myself to calendar year 2004 but I am absolutely right about the losses in Tyson's Boise and Pasco plants being greater than the profits in Tyson's Lakeside plant for the TOTAL period of time when the border was closed. Agman, the Tyson representative, and the information I have all agree on that.
When the Tyson representative I talked to said, "WAY MORE", I know now that it was with the understanding that I was talking about the TOTAL period of time when the border was closed because I did not stipulate the 2004 calendar year that I committed to in the bet. That is where the discrepency came in between the position of the Tyson representative I talked to and Agman's position.
If you read the information I presented, the heavy losses in the Pasco and Boise plants and the reduced slaughter in those plants started occuring in the 4th quarter of Tyson's FY 2004 (July - Sept. 2004) and extended into the 2nd quarter of Tyson's FY 2005 (Jan. - Mar. 2005).
That corresponds with Tyson's $16M and $19M losses if I am remembering those two figures correctly.
I commend Fedup for picking up on the time period in question. Good job Fedup! I wish more people would analyze the data the way you did.
Simultaneously, the profits in the Lakeside plants were reduced to virtually nothing in December of 2004. The Tyson financial reports I quoted from Cattle Buyers Weekly mentioned this.
Stop and think about it. As the Canadian feeder cattle moved through the system, there was less cattle available which resulted in the closed plants and shift reductions. Closing the Canadian border to imports of live cattle did not stop the slaughter of Canadian feeders that were being fed in the NW feedlots, it only stopped the live cattle that were finished in Canada. At the same time, Canada is increasing their slaughter capacity to account for some of the excessive supplies. That's when the losses in Boise and Pasco were greater than the profits at Lakeside. That is fact.
Now, because I have honored the bet in good faith and will send you a check for $100, I would ask you to honor something for me. I don't care if you buy beer for your Husker games or send it to the hurricane victims in New Orleans but I ask you not to give one thin dime to R-CULT. I'd rather you burned it.
Can you give me your word on that since I have honored the 2004 calendar year committment?
Either way, PM me with your address and I'll send you a check.
I would also ask for an apology for calling me a liar because what I said was true and the data supports it. I don't care what you call me but I take being called a liar very personal because I don't lie. If I state something that is untrue, I'll own up to it but I never intentionally mislead anyone and my $100 should be proof of that.
This has been fun and the research I was forced to conduct was worth the $100 investment. I learned a lot in the process and I hope others did as well. That's what this forum should be about. RELIABLE INFORMATION!
Randy, I'll let your conscience be your guide regarding whether or not you owe NCBA a check for $100. You are still wrong on all accounts while Sandhusker caught a break.
~SH~