Only 32% of cattle on feed

[Big Muddy rancher]

are heifers. Looks like the rebuild is on. :?

 

[burnt]

So what is the normal ratio?

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

http://www.cattletradercenter.com/cattle-outlook-only-32-cattle-feed-are-heifers

 

[Brad S]

What's normal is a good question, but really hard to define. 42/58 is a rough approximation. This rebuilding is nothing normal however. The drought that depopulated Kansas Oklahoma Texas and New Mexico removed a lot of cows from intense ag areas. Unlike Georgia and Alabama and Tennessee - they also raise a lot of beef, but those herds are held by people that are generally less dependent on cattle income. The southwest is wet and aggressively repopulating. There is another element to rebuilding that is at work here - the rebreeding of cull cows. These cows are building future tonnage from their calves, and the cows themselves are taking a lot of beef out of the current supply chain. Said differently, our current market signals under reflect our current beef supply. We can expect the aggressive rebuilding to continue until signals end rebuilding. These delayed marketing "rebreed cows" and "would have been saved back heifers" slam the supply chain,likely in a disorderly supply. Might be a good time to forward price production.

 

[4Diamond]

My big question or statement is not every heifer kept is bred nor will every heifer calve. I know a bunch have been kept but how many old cows have been sold? Until just recently 1.10-$1.20 was the going rate for killers and there has been a train load killed.

 

[Denny]

Well around here kill cows are bringing 50 cents to 60 cents maybe a few up to 70 might just as well chance them at that price.

 

[Brad S]

With $1.35 fed cattle, $1.20 cows are not getting whacked.

 

[4Diamond]

Hasn't been but a couple months ago cows were $1 plus. And yes plenty were getting killed.

 

[Brad S]

before the recent price reduction, we had +$1.50 fed cattle and $1.00 cows would be at the right value ratio.

Now we have $1.35 Feds so $1.20 cows are too expensive to whack, they're going back to the country.

 

[4Diamond]

before the recent price reduction, we had +$1.50 fed cattle and $1.00 cows would be at the right value ratio.

Now we have $1.35 Feds so $1.20 cows are too expensive to whack, they're going back to the country.

I know what you're saying but there currently is no $1.20 cows. The .70 and .80 cows are getting killed. I know some kill cow buyers. Orders are buy buy buy.

 

[canadian angus]

Big Muddy, ever thought that income tax is on the mind of Ranchers if they sold anymore?