-----Original Message-----
From: Mike Callicrate [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Saturday, June 04, 2005 12:06 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Packers will make billions at cattlemen's expense...NCBA will help them do it
*** Setting Up The Futures - Beef Packers' Business Plans *** (Part 2)
When cattle prices topped $1/pound in the wake of BSE closing the U.S. off
from Canadian supply, the price strength was touted as evidence, proof, that
packers don't control the cattle market. Such a conclusion was obvious only to
the uniformed and inexperienced. What really happened was evidence only that
it took a mega-ton explosive fundamental like BSE in North America to blow the
cattle market out of the packers' grip. Prior to that, captive supply was
depressing cattle prices and packers were exercising creative leverage over
the market. Losing access to Canadian cattle and the subsequent disruption to
packer-feedlot marketing arrangements here injected a dose of real competition
back into the cattle market that didn't exist pre-BSE.
If packers have their way, and they usually do, this disruption will be as
short-lived as they can make it and they will aggressively put supply chains
back together building them stronger than ever, thickening the foundation of
integration. Their loss of leverage at the point of this cattle cycle will wet
their drive to regain control and build a captive supply fort around cattle
procurement. Losing control of the cattle market will have given packers such
a bad taste of what having to compete for cattle is like that they will go to
great lengths to see to it they never lose control to this extent again.
Packers will extend supply chains domestically enlisting strategic
partnerships with feedlots and globally extending supply chains to source
cheaper product overseas. Not only do packers intend to fight any limitation
of their ability to procure a captive supply, but they will make huge
investments into hardening their supply chains, taking captive supply and
integration of the beef industry to new levels. If they have trouble buying
cattle in Nebraska, they will import beef from their supply chain in
Argentina. Without COOL, the U.S. consumer is no more the wiser where the
product comes from and packers and processors can charge U.S. prices for
cheaper beef procured overseas.
Producers and feedlots need to enjoy this moment of freedom in a
competitive marketplace because it's not going to last. Even if Congress
passed a ban on packer ownership, the USDA (a captive agency) would so
undermine its implementation it would never be allowed to function as author
Senator Chuck Grassley intended. The USDA has recorded a history of
undermining Congressional intent so that when COOL was passed rules were
intentionally crafted to make it so cumbersome to implement support would be
eroded. Mandatory price reporting keeps many secrets. The USDA would trim any
bull passed by Congress related to packer-ownership enacted as law into a
steer allowing packers to write the agency's rules so that it was never
implemented. That's not a cynical view point, it's just the way the system has
worked or failed to work, depending on your point of view.
Supply chains won't tolerate a ban on packer-ownership of cattle. They
intend to increase concentration by seeing to it niche markets such as beef >>
from BSE-tested animals is not allowed, expand captive supply by implementing
Smithfield Foods' integration model in the beef industry and profit from
marketing foreign beef by deceiving consumers that beef they bought cheap from
foreign sources is U.S. product, while playing the tunes the USDA dances to
making supply chains impregnable to competition. They will make billions of
dollars from suppressing competition and deceiving consumers and the NCBA will
help them do it.
****************************************
From: Mike Callicrate [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Saturday, June 04, 2005 12:06 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Packers will make billions at cattlemen's expense...NCBA will help them do it
*** Setting Up The Futures - Beef Packers' Business Plans *** (Part 2)
When cattle prices topped $1/pound in the wake of BSE closing the U.S. off
from Canadian supply, the price strength was touted as evidence, proof, that
packers don't control the cattle market. Such a conclusion was obvious only to
the uniformed and inexperienced. What really happened was evidence only that
it took a mega-ton explosive fundamental like BSE in North America to blow the
cattle market out of the packers' grip. Prior to that, captive supply was
depressing cattle prices and packers were exercising creative leverage over
the market. Losing access to Canadian cattle and the subsequent disruption to
packer-feedlot marketing arrangements here injected a dose of real competition
back into the cattle market that didn't exist pre-BSE.
If packers have their way, and they usually do, this disruption will be as
short-lived as they can make it and they will aggressively put supply chains
back together building them stronger than ever, thickening the foundation of
integration. Their loss of leverage at the point of this cattle cycle will wet
their drive to regain control and build a captive supply fort around cattle
procurement. Losing control of the cattle market will have given packers such
a bad taste of what having to compete for cattle is like that they will go to
great lengths to see to it they never lose control to this extent again.
Packers will extend supply chains domestically enlisting strategic
partnerships with feedlots and globally extending supply chains to source
cheaper product overseas. Not only do packers intend to fight any limitation
of their ability to procure a captive supply, but they will make huge
investments into hardening their supply chains, taking captive supply and
integration of the beef industry to new levels. If they have trouble buying
cattle in Nebraska, they will import beef from their supply chain in
Argentina. Without COOL, the U.S. consumer is no more the wiser where the
product comes from and packers and processors can charge U.S. prices for
cheaper beef procured overseas.
Producers and feedlots need to enjoy this moment of freedom in a
competitive marketplace because it's not going to last. Even if Congress
passed a ban on packer ownership, the USDA (a captive agency) would so
undermine its implementation it would never be allowed to function as author
Senator Chuck Grassley intended. The USDA has recorded a history of
undermining Congressional intent so that when COOL was passed rules were
intentionally crafted to make it so cumbersome to implement support would be
eroded. Mandatory price reporting keeps many secrets. The USDA would trim any
bull passed by Congress related to packer-ownership enacted as law into a
steer allowing packers to write the agency's rules so that it was never
implemented. That's not a cynical view point, it's just the way the system has
worked or failed to work, depending on your point of view.
Supply chains won't tolerate a ban on packer-ownership of cattle. They
intend to increase concentration by seeing to it niche markets such as beef >>
from BSE-tested animals is not allowed, expand captive supply by implementing
Smithfield Foods' integration model in the beef industry and profit from
marketing foreign beef by deceiving consumers that beef they bought cheap from
foreign sources is U.S. product, while playing the tunes the USDA dances to
making supply chains impregnable to competition. They will make billions of
dollars from suppressing competition and deceiving consumers and the NCBA will
help them do it.
****************************************
