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Paul leads in Iowa, Gingrich slips to fourth

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Steve

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The Texas lawmaker had the support of 24 percent of those surveyed,

followed by Mitt Romney at 18 percent,

Rick Perry at 16 percent,

Gingrich at 13 percent,

Michele Bachmann at 10 percent,

Jon Huntsman at 4 percent,

and Rick Santorum at 3 percent.

Gingrich led the field with 27 percent in the same poll one week ago.

how did Huntsman get 3%... :? :shock: :???:

This is the second poll released on Monday to show that Gingrich’s support in Iowa has evaporated.

According to a Public Policy Poll, Gingrich fell from first place to third place. Paul leads that poll by a margin of 23 percent to 20 percent over Romney. Gingrich polled at 14 percent in Iowa, according to PPP, down from 27 percent only two weeks ago.

Gingrich has also been pounded in the national polls over the last two weeks.

Since Gingrich’s surprising rise in the polls, he’s become the focus of attack ads from his GOP rivals, who have also slammed him in debates over his personal life — Gingrich has been married three times — and over his ties to government-backed mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

in most years I would say the large delegate liberal states would erode Pauls' lead.. but with the proportional states and the moving of some liberal states to late it is going to be an interesting years and more will depend on who drops out and who their supporters change to then the early state wins..

in the past several liberal states often voted before large conservative states giving the moderate the edge.. (more the reason Bush or McCain won then the conservative voters will)

I would personally like to see the states that are proportionally more conservative get to vote first.. but the party elites would have a fit..



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

http://race42012.com/category/2012-primary-calendar/
 
A

Anonymous

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Another pollsters take:

News from the Votemaster
No Fireworks in Final GOP Debate Permalink
Although the 13th and final Republican debate last night in Sioux City, Iowa, was gaffe free, it was unlucky for Newt Gingrich simply because he did not continue with the momentum he had been building the past few weeks. He needed to do that and didn't. In contrast, Mitt Romney looked and acted presidential and mostly attacked Barack Obama rather than his Republican rivals. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry did reasonably well in the sense that neither of them said anything really stupid or fumbled badly--but the bar for them has been set rather low.


Ron Paul attacked Gingrich again and again, as he has been doing for weeks, and his attacks appear to be working. He is slowly rising in the polls and Gingrich is slowly dropping. If the phase of the moon is right and the weather on Jan. 3 is something that Paulites love and everyone else hates, he even has a shot at winning Iowa. But he has no chance of winning any primary or caucus after New Hampshire and zero chance of being the Republican nominee. Among other problems, while his economic program matches Grover Norquist's fairly well (shrink the federal government to the point where you can drown it in a bathtub), his foreign policy stands are anathema to most Republican voters. To start with, he doesn't think Iran is much of a threat and wouldn't do anything even if it were on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons. Most other Republicans would either bomb it to smithereens or give Israel permission to do so.

The net result of all 13 debates is we are kind of back where we started. The show started out back in September as Snow White and the seven dwarves, but after Herman Cain dropped out, it mutated into Snow White and the six dwarves. Probably 100 polls have shown that 75-80% of Republican voters do not want Mitt Romney as their nominee. But the opposition is so weak and so fragmented and so inclined to spectacular rises and equally spectacular subsequent falls, that all Romney has to do is stand there, attack Obama, and wait for the rest to self destruct .

The thing he has to worry about--and he is certainly doing that--is that he puts a lot of effort into Iowa and loses badly to someone, no matter who. That person would then get momentum going into New Hampshire. If a challenger won Iowa, New Hampshire, and then South Carolina, it would become a two-man race for the nomination (and there is no chance whatsoever it could become a man-woman race) and the campaign might go on for months. If Romney can win Iowa or at least come in not too far behind the winner, he's probably got the nomination sewn up.

It is ironic that the normal situation is reversed this year. Usually the Republicans have a single, strong front runner and the Democrats are squabbling like toddlers. Now it is the other way around. If the also-rans, like Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, and at this point, the once-promising Rick Perry, were to drop out and support Newt Gingrich, conservatives would have a genuine standard bearer in the general election. But since all politicians are egomaniacs (it is a requirement for the job), they will all stay in until after they go down in flames in Iowa, thus helping to nominate the one person in the race they can't stand. On the other hand, indirectly by staying in they are helping democracy since a Romney-Obama race is likely to be a close contest between two fully functional adults, both of whom are clearly capable of actually being President .


But again, this campaign has been so weird that over the Christmas holidays, as families all over Iowa get together and talk politics, who knows what might come out of it.
 
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Anonymous

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Former President H.W. Bush backs Romney

By Jonathan Easley - 12/22/11 02:12 PM ET

Mitt Romney has landed the support of former President George H.W. Bush, who called him “the best choice” for the Republican presidential nomination.
“I think Romney is the best choice for us,” Bush told the Houston Chronicle on Thursday. “I like [Rick] Perry, but he doesn’t seem to be going anywhere; he’s not surging forward.”

-----------

Bush cited Romney’s “stability, experience and principles” as reasons for his support, and said that the former Massachusetts governor isn’t a “bomb-thrower.” Bush said he’s known Romney for many years, and also knew his father, George Romney, the former Michigan governor and one-time Republican presidential candidate.

Bush said he is not Newt Gingrich’s “biggest advocate,” recounting the time when then-House Whip Gingrich backed away from supporting him in his pledge of “no new taxes.”


“He [Gingrich] was there, right outside the Oval Office. I met with all the Republican leaders, all the Democratic leaders,” Bush said. “The plan was, we were all going to walk out into the Rose Garden and announce this deal. Newt was right there. Got ready to go out in the Rose Garden, and I said, ‘Where’s Gingrich?’ Went up to Capitol Hill. He was here a minute ago. Went up there and started lobbying against the thing.
 

TSR

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Oldtimer said:
Former President H.W. Bush backs Romney

By Jonathan Easley - 12/22/11 02:12 PM ET

Mitt Romney has landed the support of former President George H.W. Bush, who called him “the best choice” for the Republican presidential nomination.
“I think Romney is the best choice for us,” Bush told the Houston Chronicle on Thursday. “I like [Rick] Perry, but he doesn’t seem to be going anywhere; he’s not surging forward.”

-----------

Bush cited Romney’s “stability, experience and principles” as reasons for his support, and said that the former Massachusetts governor isn’t a “bomb-thrower.” Bush said he’s known Romney for many years, and also knew his father, George Romney, the former Michigan governor and one-time Republican presidential candidate.

Bush said he is not Newt Gingrich’s “biggest advocate,” recounting the time when then-House Whip Gingrich backed away from supporting him in his pledge of “no new taxes.”


“He [Gingrich] was there, right outside the Oval Office. I met with all the Republican leaders, all the Democratic leaders,” Bush said. “The plan was, we were all going to walk out into the Rose Garden and announce this deal. Newt was right there. Got ready to go out in the Rose Garden, and I said, ‘Where’s Gingrich?’ Went up to Capitol Hill. He was here a minute ago. Went up there and started lobbying against the thing.

Your previous post hit the nail on the head imo.
With respect to this posting--H W isn't going to support a fellow Texan??? :shock:
 
A

Anonymous

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TSR said:
Oldtimer said:
Former President H.W. Bush backs Romney

By Jonathan Easley - 12/22/11 02:12 PM ET

Mitt Romney has landed the support of former President George H.W. Bush, who called him “the best choice” for the Republican presidential nomination.
“I think Romney is the best choice for us,” Bush told the Houston Chronicle on Thursday. “I like [Rick] Perry, but he doesn’t seem to be going anywhere; he’s not surging forward.”

-----------

Bush cited Romney’s “stability, experience and principles” as reasons for his support, and said that the former Massachusetts governor isn’t a “bomb-thrower.” Bush said he’s known Romney for many years, and also knew his father, George Romney, the former Michigan governor and one-time Republican presidential candidate.

Bush said he is not Newt Gingrich’s “biggest advocate,” recounting the time when then-House Whip Gingrich backed away from supporting him in his pledge of “no new taxes.”


“He [Gingrich] was there, right outside the Oval Office. I met with all the Republican leaders, all the Democratic leaders,” Bush said. “The plan was, we were all going to walk out into the Rose Garden and announce this deal. Newt was right there. Got ready to go out in the Rose Garden, and I said, ‘Where’s Gingrich?’ Went up to Capitol Hill. He was here a minute ago. Went up there and started lobbying against the thing.

Your previous post hit the nail on the head imo.
With respect to this posting--H W isn't going to support a fellow Texan??? :shock:

Ya- that Votemaster has been pretty well dead on now for many elections...Without playing partisanship- he's been able to see what is happening... Last election about 2 weeks after McCain chose Palin as his running mate and got a quick big boost- he predicted it would quickly change and that the Independents and more moderate Republicans- especially the women- would run to support Obama because of her too extremist beliefs - and thats exactly what happened.... I couldn't believe the number of women that came onto the Republicans for Obama site saying they could not vote for McCain with her as the V.P. candidate...
 
A

Anonymous

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As the Iowa caucuses near, the race between the top tier Republican presidential candidates remains as close as ever, according to a new poll.

The American Research Group survey of likely Republican caucus goers released Friday showed Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in a statistical tie for the lead, garnering 21%, 20% and 19% respectively.
 

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