U.S. corn crop expected to be 12.2 billion bushels
Friday, October 10, 2008, 10:47 AM
by John Perkins
The United States Department of Agriculture's corn and soybean production estimates came out bigger than expected. If realized, it'd be the second largest corn crop ever and the fourth biggest soybean crop in U.S. history.
Corn's seen at 12.2 billion bushels, potentially the second largest in history and up 1% from last month's 12.072 billion, but down 7% from last year's record crop of 13.074 billion bushels. The average trade guess was 12.076 billion bushels, in a range of 11.841 billion to 12.250 billion bushels. The average yield is pegged at 154.0 bushels per acre, compared to September's 152.3 bushels per acre and the 2007 average of 151.1 bushels per acre. If realized, that would be the second highest yield ever, behind 2004. Estimates ranged from 149.3 to 155.0 bushels, with an average guess of 152.3 bushels per acre. For the month to month increase, the Ag Department cited rain in September improving conditions in the central Cornbelt, central Great Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley. However, lower yields were reported in a number of areas, with dry conditions in the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and Eastern Cornbelt pressuring yields in those areas, and damage to the crop from hurricane related heavy rain and high winds in the Delta and Missouri. Harvested area for 2008 came out at 79.197 million acres, compared to 2007's 86.542 million acres.
Soybeans were reported at 2.983 billion bushels, 2% more than September's projection of 2.934 billion bushels and 11% larger than 2007's total of 2.676 billion bushels. 2008's crop could the fourth largest in U.S. history. Prior to the report, estimates ranged from 2.847 billion to 3.001 billion bushels, with an average expectation of 2.920 billion bushels. The average yield is projected at 39.5 bushels per acre, compared to 40.0 a month ago and 41.7 a year ago. Analysts had been expecting yield to be around 39.9 bushels per acre, in a range of 38.9 to 40.9 bushels per acre. According to the Ag Department, the lower average yield projection for soybeans was on basically the same weather factors as corn. Specifically, the USDA points to steady to lower yields for most of the Cornbelt and Great Plains, Illinois and Kansas were the exceptions. Yields for the mid-Atlantic, Southeastern U.S., and lower Mississippi River Valley were steady to higher. 2008's harvested area for soybeans is seen at 75.479 million acres, compared to 2007's 64.141 million acres.
Illinois: Corn: 2.106 billion bushels, down 178 million from 2007; average yield at 177 bushels per acre, up 5 from last month and 2 higher than last year. Soybeans: 411.75 million bushels, up 51.6 million from 2007; average yield at 45.0 bushels per acre, up 3 from last month and 1.5 higher than last year.
Indiana: Corn: 888.0 million bushels, down 99 million from 2007; average yield at 160 bushels per acre, down 2 from last month but up 5 from last year. Soybeans: 231 million bushels, up 10.7 million from 2007; average yield at 42.0 bushels per acre, down 1 from last month and 4 lower than last year.
Iowa: Corn: 2.202 billion bushels, down 166 million from 2007; average yield at 172 bushels per acre, up 4 from last month and 1 higher than last year. Soybeans: 450.8 million bushels, up 2.04 million bushels from 2007; average yield at 46.0 bushels per acre, down 1 from last month and 6 lower than last year.
Missouri: Corn: 364 million bushels, down 97.5 million from 2007; average yield at 140 bushels per acre, down 2 from both last month and last year. Soybeans: 188.7 million bushels, up 13.6 million from 2007; average yield at 37.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and down .5 from last year.
Nebraska: Corn: 1.393 billion bushels, down 79 million from 2007; average yield at 161 bushels per acre, up 4 from last month and 1 higher than last year. Soybeans: 232.7 million bushels, up 36.3 million from 2007; average yield at 47.0 bushels per acre, down 1 from last month and 4 lower than last year.
South Dakota: Corn: 574 million bushels, up 29.5 million from 2007; average yield at 132 bushels per acre, down 3 from last month but up 11 from last year. Soybeans: 147.2 million bushels, up 11.1 million from 2007; average yield at 36.0 bushels per acre, down 4 from last month and 6 lower than last year.
Wisconsin: Corn: 417 million bushels, down 25.8 million from 2007; average yield at 139 bushels per acre, up 2 from last month and 4 higher than last year. Soybeans: 57.6 million bushels, up 1.7 million bushels from 2007; average yield at 36.0 bushels per acre, down 2 from last month and 4.5 lower than last year.
